World
Physical-world readings and forecasts
Start with the daily tiles: each shows yesterday's readings per domain. Below, forecast error by lead time and partner feed freshness. Rivers stay held out of training.
Reading daily counts…
Reading scores…
Partner feed freshness · 24 hours
Captured notflat.world health checks, not Offdiagonal collector totals. Each line shows minutes since the upstream update; rising means older data, not more records.
Reading measured histories…
Missing ages and skipped hourly checks break the line. Daily record-volume history is not measured by this feed.
Coverage
13 domains, one set of clocks
Bar length on a log scale. Muted bars are test-only: kept out of training because their publication times can't be proven.
- Geopolitics & world eventsForecastBench56,013answered question-horizons · Jul 2024 – Sep 2026
- Single-run weather7 model centres205,746cases · Jun – Oct 2026
- Ensemble weatherOpen-Meteo ensembles225,235cases · Sep – Oct 2026
- Prediction marketsManifold, Polymarket, Numinous170,096resolved questions with prices (97,788 Manifold, 71,195 Polymarket, 1,113 Numinous) · Aug – Oct 2026
- Market tradersPolymarket wallets457,874trades · 2026
- CryptoKalshi, Deribit, reference models255,807forecasts (mostly replays) + 51,459 venue quotes · Jul – Oct 2026
- Central-bank surveysECB SPF156,912probability distributions · 42 rounds
- EconomicsPhiladelphia Fed SPF1,979,271survey responses (2,250 first-release outcomes, RGDP/PGDP only) · 1968 – 2026
- EnergyNESO demand vs Elexon outturn137resolved half-hours (1,449 admitted forecasts at release) · Oct 2026
- HealthCDC FluSight, COVID-19 and RSV hubs567,189distinct dated outcomes (12,433 flu, 536,748 COVID, 18,008 RSV) · 2020 – 2023
- Space weatherKp observations103,623observations · Sep – Oct 2026
- HurricanesNOAA NHC ATCF forecast decks + best track152,707forecast rounds (one per method and cycle) + 1,711 best-track rounds · 2024–2025 seasons · collecting
- Market pricesPolymarket price history119,744pre-deadline price points on 19,019 temperature markets · 2026
Held out of training
Collected and public, but not used until the gate below clears.
- notflat.world · heldWaiting on the producer: no complete snapshot yet (totals blank, their counting job times out). Nothing reaches training until one full snapshot passes our checks.Snapshot check list
- Rivers (USGS) · heldHeld until hydrology validation passes on independent 7-day event blocks; 3–7 day forecast ranges are also far too narrow.Daily ingest feed