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Markets

Crowd prices, captured as they were

Start with the daily capture tiles, then price against outcome. Prices older than 12 hours are flagged stale; historical venue times are not decision-time proof.

Reading daily counts…

At a glance · 2026-10-29

What changed this week

Market prices

99.94%

19,019 of 19,030 markets priced. 11 have no history; none filled with zeros.

Forecasters with fixed IDs

  • COVID-19 hub (legacy)129
  • FluSight126
  • FluSight (legacy)44
  • COVID-19 hub29
  • RSV hub20
  • Weather ensembles5
  • Crypto replay3

356 forecasters, 10 documented links. Without a link, independence is unknown.

Warning list

5,116 cases · 500 resolved so far

Every case is registered before the outcome, at most 50 alerts per run. Outcomes arrive as events resolve.

Releases

  1. v6.22.1 Baseline: wallet files corrected (immutable pin)
  2. v6.32 Sealed beliefs, countercases, action records
  3. v6.33 Bet structure for 674,741 bets
  4. v6.34 Zeno30, Manifold answers, Jev lane
  5. v6.35 Energy and weather paired with real outcomes
  6. v6.36 62,280 weather forecasts vs measured daily highs (current)

Each release is re-downloaded and fingerprint-checked. v6.22.1 is the immutable baseline; later releases are add-ons. Full file list in the corpus inventory.

Market prices against resolved outcomes

October retrospective sample · 24 hours before close · quotes no more than 12 hours old

115

questions with fresh prior quotes

0.175

Brier score · lower is better

0

quotes captured by decision time

0%0%25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%0–10% bin · mean price 4.2% · Yes outcomes 0.0% · 21 questions10–20% bin · mean price 15.2% · Yes outcomes 11.1% · 9 questions20–30% bin · mean price 24.6% · Yes outcomes 33.3% · 6 questions30–40% bin · mean price 35.1% · Yes outcomes 44.4% · 9 questions40–50% bin · mean price 45.3% · Yes outcomes 57.9% · 19 questions50–60% bin · mean price 52.6% · Yes outcomes 45.8% · 24 questions60–70% bin · mean price 67.1% · Yes outcomes 50.0% · 6 questions70–80% bin · mean price 77.0% · Yes outcomes 50.0% · 4 questions80–90% bin · mean price 85.7% · Yes outcomes 75.0% · 8 questions90–100% bin · mean price 96.0% · Yes outcomes 100.0% · 9 questionsObserved Yes outcomesMean recorded Yes price · dashed = perfect calibration

Historical quote times are reported by the venue. None of these quotes was captured by our decision time; this is retrospective calibration, not proof of decision-time training availability. Small bins are noisy; no uncertainty or independence claim is made.

Cohort, exclusions and probability bins

391 resolved binary questions · 106 without a prior quote · 170 with a stale quote · 115 scored. Measured 2026-10-29 22:31:00Z · Resolved binary questions closing in October through the measurement cutoff; last Yes quote strictly before close minus 24 hours, at most 12 hours old. Questions are counted once per venue, not independent outcomes across venues.

Price binQuestionsMean priceYes outcomes
0–10%214.2%0.0%
10–20%915.2%11.1%
20–30%624.6%33.3%
30–40%935.1%44.4%
40–50%1945.3%57.9%
50–60%2452.6%45.8%
60–70%667.1%50.0%
70–80%477.0%50.0%
80–90%885.7%75.0%
90–100%996.0%100.0%