Sea

Seven ocean basins — North Atlantic, North Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Bay of Bengal, South China Sea, Arabian Sea, Southern Ocean. Marine truth arrives late and sparsely, so some panels honestly abstain rather than manufacture a number.

receipts held

1,000

resolved against truth

basins

forecast centres

Forecast horizon → error

Mean absolute error by lead time, per marine channel

MEASURED

No channel in this domain has resolved across enough lead times yet.

Which centre is actually right at sea

Best and worst measured producer per channel

MEASURED

No resolved receipts in this domain yet.

Prediction ↔ observation

Daily forecast mean against daily observed mean at the basin buoys and grid points

MEASURED

No channel has enough resolved days to plot yet.

Forecast maturity

Marine forecasts we have issued, and how far they are from being scoreable

DERIVED

wave height

0–6 h

0.06 m n=25

12–24 h

0.06 m n=30

> 48 h

0.24 m n=27

Models trained on marine receipts

Stored weights, their measured error and their skill against persistence

MEASURED

residual·sea:ocean_current_speed +6h0.65+0.43n=608

residual·sea:ocean_current_speed +24h0.97+0.14n=19

residual·sea:precipitation +6h0.40-0.28n=48,571

residual·sea:precipitation +24h0.24+0.15n=41,019

residual·sea:precipitation +72h0.39+0.27n=21,200

residual·sea:sea_level_m +6h0.43+0.77n=608

residual·sea:sea_level_m +24h1.06+0.18n=19

residual·sea:sea_surface_temperature +6h0.23-0.72n=375,145

residual·sea:sea_surface_temperature +24h0.29-0.05n=340,561

residual·sea:sea_surface_temperature +72h1.05-0.58n=273,231

residual·sea:secondary_swell_direction +6h0.58+0.12n=608

residual·sea:secondary_swell_direction +24h0.70+0.32n=19

residual·sea:secondary_swell_height_m +6h0.54-0.02n=608

residual·sea:secondary_swell_height_m +24h0.71+0.49n=19

residual·sea:sst +6h0.25+0.61n=608

residual·sea:sst +24h0.14+0.10n=19

residual·sea:storm_surge_m +6h0.59+0.51n=608

residual·sea:storm_surge_m +24h0.31+0.60n=19

residual·sea:surface_pressure +6h0.43-0.05n=48,522

residual·sea:surface_pressure +24h0.89+0.32n=40,989

residual·sea:surface_pressure +72h1.05+0.38n=21,205

residual·sea:swell_direction +6h0.52+0.42n=608

residual·sea:swell_direction +24h0.74+0.41n=19

residual·sea:swell_height +6h0.42+0.14n=608

residual·sea:swell_height +24h0.76+0.33n=19

residual·sea:swell_period +6h0.58+0.35n=608

residual·sea:swell_period +24h0.49+0.72n=19

residual·sea:temperature_2m +6h0.47-0.13n=374,073

residual·sea:temperature_2m +24h0.88-0.05n=340,547

residual·sea:temperature_2m +72h0.84+0.28n=273,252

residual·sea:wave_height +6h0.30+0.10n=375,848

residual·sea:wave_height +24h0.76+0.03n=340,635

residual·sea:wave_height +72h0.71+0.35n=273,258

residual·sea:wave_period +6h0.52+0.06n=608

residual·sea:wave_period +24h0.70-0.07n=19

residual·sea:wind_speed_10m +6h0.57+0.12n=375,257

residual·sea:wind_speed_10m +24h0.85+0.29n=340,623

residual·sea:wind_speed_10m +72h0.83+0.29n=273,280

residual·sea:wind_wave_direction +6h0.73+0.34n=608

residual·sea:wind_wave_direction +24h0.80-0.32n=19

residual·sea:wind_wave_height +6h0.48+0.34n=608

residual·sea:wind_wave_height +24h0.67+0.05n=19

columns · MAE · skill vs persistence · training samples