Agriculture
Seven breadbaskets, one scoring rule. Growing-season temperature, wind and precipitation forecasts are resolved against observed truth and ranked by measured error — no crop index is asserted that the evidence cannot carry.
receipts held
1,000
resolved against truth
0%
regions
7
forecast centres
10
Forecast horizon → error
Mean absolute error by lead time, per channel
No channel in this domain has resolved across enough lead times yet.
Which breadbasket is hardest to forecast
Temperature error per region, worst first
No site has enough resolved receipts to rank yet.
Prediction ↔ observation
Daily forecast mean against daily observed mean across the growing regions
No channel has enough resolved days to plot yet.
Which centre is actually right here
Best and worst measured producer per channel
No resolved receipts in this domain yet.
Models trained on agricultural receipts
Stored weights, their measured error and their skill against persistence
columns · MAE · skill vs persistence · training samples