offdiagonal / replay forecasts against reality

Global Context

This lane deliberately looks different from the others. It is not another sensor domain — it records what else was happening around reality. Every provider carries different freshness, coverage and redistribution semantics, so they get separate tracks rather than a merged severity score. Every record below is stored on our side.

context records

608

held locally

providers

7

countries

47

compound episodes

2

world-state layers

27

semantic vocabulary

Physical event → human information environment

M4.5+ arrivals against the context records we hold, on one axis

MEASURED
EARTH eventM5.0 53 km W of Cafayate, Argentina — 2026-09-09T10:06:57.170ZM5.0 154 km S of Sarangani, Philippines — 2026-09-09T07:07:03.319ZM4.5 108 km SSW of Pagar Alam, Indonesia — 2026-09-09T00:23:19.728ZM4.9 Mariana Islands region — 2026-09-08T23:23:42.291ZM4.9 211 km ENE of Neiafu, Tonga — 2026-09-08T21:57:33.202ZM4.6 54 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia — 2026-09-08T21:42:22.442ZM4.9 97 km NNE of Chitre, Nepal — 2026-09-08T16:08:34.980ZM4.9 54 km E of Hihifo, Tonga — 2026-09-08T15:43:57.137ZM5.2 123 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia — 2026-09-08T15:36:35.020ZM4.5 95 km SSW of Severo-Kuril’sk, Russia — 2026-09-08T14:13:09.955ZM4.7 62 km WSW of Ollagüe, Chile — 2026-09-08T13:42:08.931ZM5.3 26 km NW of Neiafu, Tonga — 2026-09-08T11:51:09.687ZM4.6 1 km NNW of Katochí, Greece — 2026-09-08T07:46:29.636ZM5.1 South Sandwich Islands region — 2026-09-08T06:50:46.470ZM4.7 43 km NW of Aroa, Venezuela — 2026-09-08T06:49:48.990ZM5.3 51 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia — 2026-09-08T04:40:28.046ZM4.6 176 km SSE of Vilyuchinsk, Russia — 2026-09-08T02:34:20.009ZM4.5 south of the Fiji Islands — 2026-09-08T01:39:35.020ZM5.1 92 km ESE of Isangel, Vanuatu — 2026-09-08T00:52:02.083ZM4.5 129 km ENE of Taltal, Chile — 2026-09-07T21:54:38.748ZM5.5 southeast of the Loyalty Islands — 2026-09-07T05:50:44.529ZM4.7 Kermadec Islands region — 2026-09-07T02:30:21.719ZM4.5 south of the Fiji Islands — 2026-09-07T02:29:41.341ZM4.9 Kermadec Islands region — 2026-09-07T02:11:51.997ZM5.0 Kermadec Islands region — 2026-09-07T02:06:48.371ZM5.3 off the coast of Oregon — 2026-09-07T01:30:24.930ZM4.5 235 km E of Levuka, Fiji — 2026-09-06T21:08:44.127ZM4.8 39 km SW of Copala, Mexico — 2026-09-06T18:46:18.668ZM4.5 98 km ENE of Donggang, Taiwan — 2026-09-06T16:37:01.719ZM4.7 Svalbard region — 2026-09-06T12:50:34.778ZM4.6 219 km SSE of Wada, Japan — 2026-09-06T12:17:14.956ZM5.2 southern East Pacific Rise — 2026-09-06T12:00:16.067ZM4.6 105 km NNW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste — 2026-09-06T11:15:46.043ZM4.8 33 km NE of Calama, Chile — 2026-09-06T10:39:32.174ZM5.2 southern East Pacific Rise — 2026-09-06T10:38:18.353ZM5.2 southern East Pacific Rise — 2026-09-06T10:32:28.227ZM4.6 91 km NE of Luwuk, Indonesia — 2026-09-06T06:41:21.347ZM4.9 118 km ENE of Kuji, Japan — 2026-09-06T05:15:45.801ZM4.6 Kermadec Islands region — 2026-09-06T04:52:40.376ZM5.6 93 km SE of Kirakira, Solomon Islands — 2026-09-06T04:05:30.141ZM5.3 108 km SW of Puerto Madero, Mexico — 2026-09-06T02:56:32.601ZM4.6 71 km N of Isangel, Vanuatu — 2026-09-05T23:46:26.056ZM4.7 95 km ESE of Isangel, Vanuatu — 2026-09-05T21:06:01.351ZM4.9 80 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska — 2026-09-05T18:00:09.215ZM5.6 96 km ESE of Isangel, Vanuatu — 2026-09-05T17:02:11.581ZM5.5 162 km E of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea — 2026-09-05T14:12:06.943ZM5.2 77 km SSW of Sibolga, Indonesia — 2026-09-05T14:06:07.776ZM5.1 69 km E of Antofagasta de la Sierra, Argentina — 2026-09-05T11:37:12.553ZM5.0 70 km SW of Pagar Alam, Indonesia — 2026-09-05T10:59:15.678ZM4.5 87 km NNW of Sinabang, Indonesia — 2026-09-05T09:14:15.563ZM4.5 76 km S of Gorontalo, Indonesia — 2026-09-05T06:34:55.998ZM5.0 off the coast of Central America — 2026-09-05T05:00:06.778ZM4.8 Kermadec Islands, New Zealand — 2026-09-05T01:41:01.465ZM4.5 159 km ENE of Noda, Japan — 2026-09-05T00:22:45.357ZM5.5 168 km ESE of Kuril’sk, Russia — 2026-09-04T23:52:29.825ZM5.1 central Mid-Atlantic Ridge — 2026-09-04T23:38:40.818ZM4.5 38 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia — 2026-09-04T23:17:48.392ZM4.6 32 km NW of Raumati Beach, New Zealand — 2026-09-04T18:34:01.487ZM5.1 25 km W of Padangsidempuan, Indonesia — 2026-09-04T16:24:41.107ZM4.9 south of the Fiji Islands — 2026-09-04T13:47:52.492Zcompound episodeflood_crop_inundation — 2026-09-03T00:34:55.259+00:00marine_heat_fisheries — 2026-09-03T00:34:55.216+00:00GDACSgdacs — 2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00gdacs — 2026-09-02T01:00:00+00:00gdacs — 2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00gdacs — 2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00gdacs — 2026-09-01T14:00:00+00:00gdacs — 2026-08-28T05:13:35+00:00gdacs — 2026-08-14T21:58:21+00:00ReliefWebMSF Ukraine: Emergency Statement following the recent attacks on Kyiv — 2026-09-04T08:38:20+00:00NDMA Pakistan - Monsoon 2026 Daily Situation Report No. 70 (3 September 2026) — 2026-09-04T02:25:41+00:00NGA: Population Movement - 08-2026 - Emerging Displacement Crisis in Kebbi State, Nigeria (2026-09-04) — 2026-09-04T02:02:55+00:00Bulletin de surveillance pastorale sur le Niger N°70 - juin - juillet 2026 — 2026-09-03T13:27:10+00:00Nigeria advances early childhood development through primary health care — 2026-09-03T10:23:41+00:00Ukraine Cash Working Group, 12 August 2026 [Meeting Minutes] [EN/UK] — 2026-09-03T09:47:08+00:00Ukraine war situation update | 15 – 21 August 2026 — 2026-09-03T07:33:05+00:00NDMA Pakistan - Monsoon 2026 Daily Situation Report No. 69 (2 September 2026) — 2026-09-03T01:43:30+00:00Ukraine: Humanitarian Needs and Response Review (January - June 2026) — 2026-09-02T15:23:59+00:00Ukraine: 2025-2026 FSLC Winterization Lessons Learnt, July 2026 — 2026-09-02T12:30:00+00:00FSLC Ukraine Winter Response Strategic Plan 2026-2027, August 2026 — 2026-09-02T12:20:26+00:00Bulletin N°2 de suivi de la campagne agropastorale au Niger Situation au 15 août 2026 — 2026-09-02T11:11:12+00:00Ukraine: Protection Risk Monitoring System Concept Note January 2026 — 2026-09-02T10:02:54+00:00WHO Ukraine Newsletter - August 2026 — 2026-09-02T09:29:00+00:00Pakistan Rain Monitor - Issue Number 10 (01- 07 September 2026) — 2026-09-02T09:12:11+00:00Ukraine: Building the unified cash transfers framework | Transition from MPCA to UCTs: Mid-Year Progress — 2026-09-02T07:20:40+00:00FAO Director-General in Thailand Pays tribute to Her Majesty Queen Sirikit The Queen Mother’s vision for rural communities — 2026-09-02T02:44:30+00:00NDMA Pakistan - Monsoon 2026 Daily Situation Report No. 68 (1 September 2026) — 2026-09-02T01:50:05+00:00Lives on hold: Intentions and Perspectives of Internally Displaced People in Ukraine (August 2026) — 2026-09-01T15:03:10+00:00Ukraine - Conflict: LTC Situation Report (Telecoms Area) #62 - Reporting period: August 2026 — 2026-09-01T14:17:00+00:00LTS Nigeria Protection Crisis (August 2026) — 2026-09-01T14:08:30+00:00Nigeria: Conflict - LTS Situation Report (Telecoms Area) #116 - Reporting period: August 2026 — 2026-09-01T13:49:49+00:00Ukraine: Бюлетень правової допомоги за травень 2026 року — 2026-09-01T12:51:05+00:00Ukraine: Бюлетень правової допомоги за січень 2026 року — 2026-09-01T12:49:50+00:00Ukraine: Бюлетень правової допомоги за лютий-березень 2026 року — 2026-09-01T12:48:10+00:00Ukraine: Legal Aid Bulletin for May 2026 [EN/UK] — 2026-09-01T12:43:40+00:00Ukraine: Legal Aid Bulletin for May 2026 — 2026-09-01T12:43:40+00:00Ukraine: Legal Aid Bulletin for January 2026 [EN/UK] — 2026-09-01T12:42:13+00:00Ukraine: Legal Aid Bulletin for January 2026 — 2026-09-01T12:42:13+00:00Ukraine: Legal Aid Bulletin for February-March 2026 — 2026-09-01T12:40:37+00:00Ukraine: Legal Aid Bulletin for February-March 2026 [EN/UK] — 2026-09-01T12:40:37+00:00Ukraine: Legal Aid Bulletin for April 2026 [EN/UK] — 2026-09-01T12:36:16+00:00UCDPno records in this window

Reading downward from a physical arrival shows how — and how quickly — it enters the human information environment. Tracks stay separate because their freshness and coverage are not comparable.

Provider ledger

Volume held, freshness and declared semantics per provider

MEASURED
gbif
453presence-only biodiversity, uneven sampling · latest 2026-01-31 00:00
ucdp
78versioned historical dataset — not live danger scoring · latest 2025-12-31 00:00
reliefweb
32curated humanitarian report archive · latest 2026-09-04 08:38
world-bank
15periodic or modelled indicators — not real-time measurement · latest 2025-12-31 00:00
who-gho
15periodic or modelled indicators — not real-time measurement · latest 2021-12-31 00:00
gdacs
8live disaster-alert feed · latest 2026-09-03 00:00
obis
7presence-only marine biodiversity, uneven sampling · latest 2026-09-04 17:38

Cross-domain episodes

Persisted compound-risk relationships

DERIVED
Flood crop inundationagriculture → earth · 2026-09-03 00:34

Active extreme flooding at irrawaddy pyay (discharge ≥ p99) is causing agricultural inundation across 2 district(s). NDVI deficit detected (avg 0.15) in 8 district(s), consistent with crop water-logging. 0 districts at critical water stress.

confidence moderate · severity advisory

Marine heat → fisheriessea → agriculture · 2026-09-03 00:34

Marine heat wave with SST anomaly > +2°C sustained over the past 14+ days is driving phytoplankton collapse and fisheries stress. 2 monitoring location(s) consistently above +2°C anomaly threshold. 20 active marine heat alert(s): marine_heatwave. Chlorophyll-a is declining, indicating disrupted primary productivity.

confidence moderate · severity watch

Indicator evidence

World Bank and WHO values, one row per indicator — never merged into a single score

MEASURED
Population, total (persons)NER: 27917831 persons (2025-12-31)IND: 1463865525 persons (2025-12-31)SEN: 18931966 persons (2025-12-31)KEN: 57532493 persons (2025-12-31)UKR: 38980376 persons (2025-12-31)BRA: 212812405 persons (2025-12-31)THA: 71619863 persons (2025-12-31)TZA: 70545865 persons (2025-12-31)VNM: 101598527 persons (2025-12-31)NGA: 237527782 persons (2025-12-31)KHM: 17847982 persons (2025-12-31)PAK: 255219554 persons (2025-12-31)ARG: 45851378 persons (2025-12-31)JPN: 123366734 persons (2025-12-31)HUN: 9514251 persons (2025-12-31)9,514,2511,463,865,525
WHOSIS_000001 (SEX)KEN: 69.21556653 SEX (2021-12-31)TZA: 65.23878398 SEX (2021-12-31)SEN: 67.79198263 SEX (2021-12-31)NER: 59.97070525 SEX (2021-12-31)UKR: 66.33379842 SEX (2021-12-31)HUN: 77.82603653 SEX (2021-12-31)THA: 71.76037025 SEX (2021-12-31)JPN: 84.46067178 SEX (2021-12-31)VNM: 77.95730127 SEX (2021-12-31)ARG: 74.56898059 SEX (2021-12-31)BRA: 69.04410946 SEX (2021-12-31)IND: 67.30780612 SEX (2021-12-31)PAK: 65.99092295 SEX (2021-12-31)KHM: 71.45081969 SEX (2021-12-31)NGA: 62.06702482 SEX (2021-12-31)59.97184.461

Each row is a single indicator on its own scale; one dot is one country-year. Values are never normalised across indicators, because they do not share units or measurement regimes.

Episodic record stream

GDACS alerts, ReliefWeb reports and UCDP conflict records, newest first

MEASURED

Biodiversity occurrence

GBIF and OBIS presence-only records by taxon — sampling effort, not abundance

MEASURED
Emydura Bonaparte, 1836
30
Oryctolagus cuniculus
20
Gerbillus nanus
14
Parus major
10
Gerbillus gerbillus
8
Vulpes vulpes
7
Acridotheres tristis
7
Alopochen aegyptiaca
7
Corvus frugilegus
7
Anas platyrhynchos
6
Branta canadensis
5
Lepidoptera
5
Dione vanillae
5
Reynoutria japonica
5

Presence-only records: a tall bar means more observation effort, not necessarily more organisms.

World-state layers

The vocabulary the observation layer is allowed to speak in

MEASURED
layerdomainevidence roleclaim posturecadenceinputs
Vapour-pressure deficitagriculturemeasurementsupporteddaily1
FAO-56 reference evapotranspirationagriculturederived_evidencesupporteddaily1
Modelled soil moistureagriculturemodel_evidenceprovisionaldaily1
Vegetation-condition anomalyagriculturederived_evidencesupportedseasonal/as-of-date1
Fire activityagriculturederived_evidenceprovisionalnear-real-time2
PM₂.₅ forecast interval widthairderived_evidenceprovisionalsource cadence2
Ventilation / dilution indexairderived_evidenceprovisionalsource cadence2
PM₂.₅ mass concentrationairmeasurementsupportedhourly or better1
PM₁₀ mass concentrationairmeasurementsupportedhourly or better1
Pollutant AQIairderived_evidencesupportedsource cadence2
PM₂.₅ forecastairmodel_evidenceprovisionalhourly2
Climate projection anomalycross-domaincontextnot_claimedannual1
Compound-risk event referencecross-domaincontextprovisionalsource cadence1
Seismic event rateearthderived_evidencesupporteddaily1
Sequence activity stateearthderived_evidenceprovisionalsource cadence1
Maximum seismic magnitudeearthderived_evidencesupportedsource cadence1
Biodiversity occurrence activityglobal-contextcontextprovisionaldaily2
Disaster alert activityglobal-contextcontextprovisionalnear-real-time1
Humanitarian report activityglobal-contextcontextprovisionalhourly1
World Bank indicator valueglobal-contextcontextsupportedperiodic1
WHO indicator valueglobal-contextcontextsupportedperiodic1
Historical conflict-event contextglobal-contextcontextnot_claimedperiodic1
Sea-surface temperatureseameasurementsupporteddaily1
Marine heatwave stateseaderived_evidenceprovisionalsource cadence1
Sea-surface temperature anomalyseaderived_evidenceprovisionaldaily1
Apparent temperatureurbanmeasurementsupportedhourly1
Urban heat-stress stateurbanderived_evidenceprovisionalsource cadence1