Inventory
What the record holds
Exact counts, measured 2 Oct 2026. Log-scale bars keep small sources visible; numbers are exact.
Dated forecasts per source
- Weather & environment1,857,458
- Weather, own 90% ranges390,287
- COVID118,930
- ForecastBench55,372
- RSV24,729
- ECB survey21,506
- Flu14,602
Bar length on a log scale so small sources stay visible; numbers are exact.
Confident and still wrong
Cases where the forecaster's own range was among the narrowest of at least three peers on the same outcome, and still missed.
- Weather35,970
- COVID7,595
- ECB survey2,494
- Flu1,322
- RSV464
Whole training episodes, health
One episode is one outcome as seen at the decision time. Weather, ECB, ForecastBench, crypto, markets and sea have episode feeds too.
- COVID8,554
- Flu5,070
- RSV4,507
Access
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Analyst estimates, vendor feeds, spreadsheets or models: we assess them against observed outcomes, simple baselines and each other. Tell us the problem; files come later, privately, after scoping. A person reads every request.
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What is open
Without any credential
- The published benchmark: population, admission rule, coverage, abstention and uncertainty.
- The contribution funnel: what each source contributes and where records are lost.
- Worked examples chosen to be representative, not flattering.