Zeno Divergent
The second-order layer. Not "these models are beginning to disagree", but: these models are currently healthy, and their recent error dynamics indicate an elevated probability that their predictive validity breaks down within the horizon they advertise.
Observed fragility is DERIVED from measured upstream signals. Prospective breach probability and validity horizon are SIMULATED — the platform publishes no public second-order scoring feed, so these are a deterministic estimate anchored on the measured fragility, never presented as retrieved fact.
models scored
33
observed degrading
7
breach probability > 50%
7
simulated
median horizon deficit
70h
advertised minus estimated validity
Forecast horizon versus validity horizon
The signature view: what a model advertises, against how long we estimate it stays valid
Grey bar: horizon the model advertises. Coloured bar: estimated validity horizon. The gap between the tick and the end of the grey bar is the interval in which a forecast is still being issued but should no longer be trusted at face value.
Fragility ledger
Ordered by estimated breach probability
Columns: observed fragility (derived) · breach probability within horizon (simulated).
Air GAT candidate
AIR · air-gat-candidate
observed fragility
85%
derived from measured signals
breach probability
95%
within 72h · simulated
advertised horizon
72h
estimated validity
~2h
simulated
prospective fragility, next 24h
Dashed line is the breach threshold at 0.60.
why
- — interval coverage 0% vs declared 90%
- — persistent over-prediction bias 18.4
- — 5 upstream drift alerts open
- — declared status "experimental"
- — not claim-eligible — outputs cannot support a verified claim
Scored against upstream accuracy generated 51m ago. Fragility score 0.851.