{"id":1,"file_id":1,"item_index":0,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.75,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.75,"searches":["2024 hottest year","noaa 2024 hottest year","nasa 2024 hottest year on record","el nino la nina Years","will 2024 be the hottest year on record"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Updating to account for the crowd consensus which is much more confident than I am on this question.","consulted_urls":["https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-global-temperature-record-streak-continues-april-2024-was-hottest-record","https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-bulletins#55c9d9ab-fb45-4667-94b0-084c3423879b","https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/07/08/june-breaks-global-temperature-records-for-13th-month-in-row-as-earth-exceeds-15c-limit-fo","https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-202406#:~:text=According%20to%20NCEIs%20Global%20Annual rank%20in%20the%20top%20five.","https://www.nasa.gov/earth/nasa-analysis-confirms-a-year-of-monthly-temperature-records/","https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm","https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/2024-could-be-worlds-hottest-year-june-breaks-records-2024-07-08"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ef3e43055c0670fdf741d1f1e37a0504c4e89406bafe415aca0c5a9a878722aa","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":2,"file_id":1,"item_index":1,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.95,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"S3bbH6xnAb","forecast":0.95,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Yes.   https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-off-to-a-record-warm-start/#:~:text=This%20year%20is%20shaping%20up at%20the%20start%20of%202024.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3e4ae5f37bd5a587bb6ce6661df7d293be0897958258648cd9845e4aa0c33616","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3bbH6xnAb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":3,"file_id":1,"item_index":2,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.96,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.96,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The first half of the year is very significantly higher. IMO  the rest 6 months would have to be extraordinary cold to come up with an average below 2023.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d889ef049e0246336856eed26fa3a5bd33306c6cdeb25b2bc401f41fa44fa37e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":4,"file_id":1,"item_index":3,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.975,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.975,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"2024 has been... hot. No signs of it letting up.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0cf6b760c7ffa8771614fa8980ba532809d54aca6f33fb9775286541ad2e3bb1","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":5,"file_id":1,"item_index":4,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.94,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.94,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"No events that would limit the current years trend (large volcano eruptions). Not all feedback effects of global warming understood yet but seem to be functioning for the past decade with no abate.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"fb01c3166425d1ba9afc84c45568ca5bac5b554e892612f3822bfad607ea9981","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":6,"file_id":1,"item_index":5,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.965,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"SXXYp0Pfba","forecast":0.965,"searches":["will 2024 be the hottest year on record"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Every month since June 2023 - 13 months in a row - has ranked as the planets hottest since records began  compared with the corresponding month in previous years  the European Unions Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said in a monthly bulletin. Reuters July 8th   Sea surface temperatures were record warm for the 15th consecutive month. NOAA Climate.gov July 16th  2024   Im at 96.5  not 100  only because the shift to LaNiña with the current temperatures and pressures  and over such a short transition time is unprecedented so the outcome is not known with certainty. Forecast for the next few months are for continuing record heat  so it would need to experience a very rapid cooling to offset the anomalous months that we have already experienced.","consulted_urls":["https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/2024-could-be-worlds-hottest-year-june-breaks-records-2024-07-08/#:~:text=The%20latest%20data%20suggest%202024 so%20far%2C%20some%20scientists%20said.","https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/global-climate-summary-june-2024"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"faa5d3cd3b56ab5afd01db1e554b3aeae701854c9362ac4237401854a103173a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SXXYp0Pfba","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":7,"file_id":1,"item_index":6,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.85,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"SUpgMvejGk","forecast":0.85,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Very hot first half  but not certain yet. La nina is coming  cooler Pacific water temps.","consulted_urls":["https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/local/weather/la-nina-is-coming-heres-what-to-expect/2024/07/19/1356ef3a-acf2-4b22-a184-f80fc7fc7007_video.html"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c76ed9eb7ef12ed53a4cda59374a5742cfd7f73bc4e73137e56aed924ef7a445","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SUpgMvejGk","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":8,"file_id":1,"item_index":7,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.98,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"SqSCtDbxAl","forecast":0.98,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Increasing every year and thus for this year over last. Aug.- Sept. long range is forecast with most of the US at above average temperatures.   https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1   and almost as much for Oct- Dec.   https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"43d0f664cf5ce0f82bd421c269f42883e98267f397ff361f79cc0dcebc34963c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SqSCtDbxAl","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":9,"file_id":1,"item_index":8,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.98,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":0.98,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Increasing every year  and not just in a few places.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9fe5210ba64d679a66f57b2422a3aac8d758bed15150c94782d9335a5dabcdce","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":10,"file_id":1,"item_index":9,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.92,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"SnOyJtNds8","forecast":0.92,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Ill go with a bit more conservative than https://x.com/hausfath/status/1808411956564361542?s=46","consulted_urls":["https://x.com/hausfath/status/1808411956564361542?s=46"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6d71ee260c0519529cb96e30b699102a3927282fde833bfb5d71b9b5aefbadc7","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnOyJtNds8","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":11,"file_id":1,"item_index":10,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.95,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"S2s1t6Uzpa","forecast":0.95,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Ill go with Zeke Hausfather  as cited by Reuters [redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"316f03c027558e470fe9ae7c81bd3478c06fb8f755dbba8842c21aa09397cdfb","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2s1t6Uzpa","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":12,"file_id":1,"item_index":11,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.95,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.95,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"update","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7865c09479cedf3377137663156a58088e5a439fde97c7e00b36f3984fc79026","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":13,"file_id":1,"item_index":12,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.9,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"SsEu23bmu9","forecast":0.9,"searches":["average global temperature by year","average global temperature 2024","2024 hottest year"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"2024 is tracking significantly hotter than 2023 in the first six months of the year according to the Global Climate Report  and experts assign a high probability that it will be the hottest year.   I am not as confident- the Global Climate Report shows a remarkably high temperature anomaly in the last six months of 2023. In fact this temperature anomaly is a bit higher than the one from the first six months of 2024. So temperatures need to still have a fairly high anomaly the rest of the year. This is very likely (90%).","consulted_urls":["https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series","https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/?intent=121","https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/2024-could-be-worlds-hottest-year-june-breaks-records-2024-07-08/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"dc44b7e58a45c7986543ca1209504824f3b5da0515ec002b4d481d43a9437dda","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsEu23bmu9","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":14,"file_id":1,"item_index":13,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.85,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.85,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Updating a bit higher based on group forecasts.","consulted_urls":["https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202406"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"bb963a89cb817d7b38f8e383c08d9497509d8889bd3b55fab6a5f36aa0deb0d7","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":15,"file_id":1,"item_index":14,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.8,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"SE9oSfk4nV","forecast":0.8,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Each of first 6 months of the year was above 2023 temperature by average of 0.47 F. There is a chance that due to El Ninio La ninia anomalies will trigger some cooling down but it would probably require to start in July  otherwise cooling in each subsequent month would need to be very significant vs 2023. And June 2024 was still 0.27F above June 2023. From the other hand July-Dec 2023 were extremly hot so going back even to 2022 temperatures would be enough to be below 2023.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6c8d3169d2fb032fd0973fb0c33f9964b0ad70045208227c437d464eea5825d9","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SE9oSfk4nV","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":16,"file_id":1,"item_index":15,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.93,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"SiIgce1WZv","forecast":0.93,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":null,"consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ac699edb80e630cf3f19f35c822449abfbfd39933ba2e0f855500808592377ba","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SiIgce1WZv","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":17,"file_id":1,"item_index":16,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.77,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"S2co9AhkoU","forecast":0.77,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"2024 so far has been higher than 2023. However JASOND of 23 was also much higher than long term avg. So  its looking like 2024  will take the title. Only question is whether the 2024 legs are hot enough to continue or they will start cooling down.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e600e699a81b334aa5f4a975a5c21bd47faab89f52958600e83b43b7749219b3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2co9AhkoU","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":18,"file_id":1,"item_index":17,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.95,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"Sg4x84spDg","forecast":0.95,"searches":["2024 hottest year"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"From the EU climate agency: Every month since June 2023 - 13 months in a row - has ranked as the planets hottest since records began  compared with the corresponding month in previous years  the European Unions Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said in a monthly bulletin.","consulted_urls":["https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/2024-could-be-worlds-hottest-year-june-breaks-records-2024-07-08/#:~:text=The%20latest%20data%20suggest%202024 so%20far%2C%20some%20scientists%20said."],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9253045d5c259c9b0c18f1d7b08835f94f9fea4fda12482a51e1f545e47ce718","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg4x84spDg","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":19,"file_id":1,"item_index":18,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.95,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"SOca8sKBtd","forecast":0.95,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I think this question looks fairly easy.  Temperatures the first half of 2024 have been well above that of 2023  and it would take a tremendous reversal in that trend to get to lower than 2023.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a71a6ffb742fe91a4383316cf0095820e117faea447a685bdfe41780dbee4d7f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SOca8sKBtd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":20,"file_id":1,"item_index":19,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.93,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.93,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I now estimate that there is an approximately 95% chance that 2024 beats 2023 to be the warmest year since global surface temperature records began in the mid-1800s    https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/2024-could-be-worlds-hottest-year-june-breaks-records-2024-07-08/#","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"682cf76449cfb64a377300ab12bdf7b34a28c3cd76fd6ae55a86ef36c1d2707e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":21,"file_id":1,"item_index":20,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.94,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0.94,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Every month so far has been above 2023. La nina will probably end that streak but unlikely to pull 2024 down enough  according to experts I found.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a539670160a90967ff068d0546ba3fc51cfbb2e6767ff1696beeea447dbe8a41","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":22,"file_id":1,"item_index":21,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.96,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","source":"manifold","user_id":"SsuHJKpbpe","forecast":0.96,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Has been so far. Global warming implies more likely than not. The 10 warmest years in the 174-year record have all occurred during the last decade.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"adde598a481e6aa562e8637b648bf135381bb93c151e4adfdbe8dce06ea5f278","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsuHJKpbpe","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687574,"question_id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-10","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":23,"file_id":1,"item_index":22,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.35,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.35,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"One of the main factors affecting this forecast is the weather. Heavy rains might cause contaminants to skyrocket all of a sudden. The problem with weather is that a) it is not easy to forecast reliably this early  and b) rainfall in the summer is sometimes 100mm of rain falling over the course of a couple of hours due to a severe thunderstorm.   Organizers have already revealed their contingency plans on July 5. They mentioned that open-water swimming might take place in the Marne River instead. In addition  officials could delay the triathlon event or  in the worst-case scenario  eliminate the swimming portion of the competition. Also athletes have been informed that their events might be delayed by a few days if the water quality is not good enough for swimming.   This implies that the perceived risk is non-negligible and the situation will be monitored.   There is also a chance that a lack of transparency from the organizers might end in athletes striking and refusing to compete in the event  thus causing a delay.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"65fc638fba1e799caad332781ffa0899b6c1965f57d765b0622bfa4907241093","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":24,"file_id":1,"item_index":23,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"S3bbH6xnAb","forecast":0.1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"$ 1B on water quality. Someone will have to fall on their sword if an event is cancelled   https://www.newyorker.com/sports/sporting-scene/the-unexpectedly-hopeful-paris-olympics#:~:text=To%20make%20it%20swimmable%2C%20the and%20establishing%20regulations%20that%20required","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9aef4b6aa3a66122d858659abd5b63fcf09c1d5ab0e18184873f4cf9b8771f9c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3bbH6xnAb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":25,"file_id":1,"item_index":24,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.25,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The most recent news I can find is dated 6-21-2024 and it says Paris river Seine was too dirty when tested on June 16 to allow the Olympic triathlon and open-water swimming events to be held there. It then goes into excuses (quality remains degraded due to... rain  high flow  little sunshine (and) temperatures below seasonal norms) of which the temperature one  IMO  does not make sense. It then suggests that no Plan B exist.   River being river  I dont think an effective cleanup is possible unless the source is eliminated. Then they might get lucky if its dry and very sunny couple weeks before the Olympics.   But then  Paris mayor has promised to dive next week herself (published 7-12-24)  indicating a strong desire to hold it no matter what. I wouldnt even put it past French to compromise testing or reporting of the tests. Starting at below 50%.   <b>Edit</b>: reducing to 25% on the show of mayor and some other guys swimming in the river. I dont know. Seine stunk already 30 years ago and it does not sound like it became much better since. The insistence on having the events in Paris is strange. After all  they are not having sailing regatta in Paris anyway...","consulted_urls":["https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/06/21/paris-seine-river-water-too-dirty-to-allow-olympic-swimming-events_6675386_7.html","https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5634073/2024/07/12/river-seine-contamination-bacteria-mayor-swim/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b3781c11df38d45cc037a85351407f8175e411cbe438f4665adddf5b1dbee85f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":26,"file_id":1,"item_index":25,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.102,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.102,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Some good points about the weather/contaminants. Need to raise on account of this possibility.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"4c58c21cb272d2f229a826e17e85b1644719a603698505c16f49c50073a852fd","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":27,"file_id":1,"item_index":26,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.35,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"ScR8KykF8V","forecast":0.35,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Reducing [redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9ff6d59ff87ae56d2b8ffef1a626ea6d3cfa686808323b9fc440accdb4305d46","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:ScR8KykF8V","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":28,"file_id":1,"item_index":27,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.12,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.12,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"low probability of rain  large investment  and most importantly the heart of parisians is into it.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"32a592ef018cacaa8aad6d8ae5d56224b3ac1a1c34f388f46925e000af7edca7","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":29,"file_id":1,"item_index":28,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.3,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.3,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"This seems to mainly depend on the weather: if it rains  bacteria (E-Coli) get more. Official plan is postponing some events in that case  and even only one such case would be enough for yes. Very low bar  and swimming in there has been forbidden for 100 years  so base rate is horrific.   But... generally water quality in the Seine seems to have become much better (link 1 shows Mayor Hidalgo swimming in there)  and they have two more weeks to clean it up. Plus  they have had probably worse conditions before (Rio  Beijing)  and the IOC did not care.   Unfortunately it´s too early for a reliable weatherforecast. For now it´s only guessing. ------------------------   [redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7bb841f7a52c8ad6674283d9e9fbb2e2f2f0727c2f4635f6ff7dd486a4b74d06","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":30,"file_id":1,"item_index":29,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.37,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"SXXYp0Pfba","forecast":0.37,"searches":["Paris 14 day forecast","paris olympics 2024","Paris olympics triathlon","Paris olympics seine swimming events."],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Triathlon: Mens July 29  Womens July 30. August 8th and 9th for marathon swimming in the Seine.  August 8th an 9th is too far out for accurate weather forecasting.","consulted_urls":["https://olympics.com/en/news/swimming-paris-2024-olympics-preview-schedule-watch","https://www.sortiraparis.com/en/news/olympic-games-paris-2024/articles/316705-olympics-2024-what-s-plan-b-if-swimming-events-in-the-seine-are-cancelled#:~:text=Last%20year%2C%20the%20marathon%20swimming 9%20for%20the%20marathon%20swimming."],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ad5c41132dcfd8e9128968ca8635fa7739981d973410bf462ac0753998cb8e1f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SXXYp0Pfba","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":31,"file_id":1,"item_index":30,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":0.1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"They have strong incentives to make it happen.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a0dc67f31bd6c89388c86bc9b6e7d88d1d777c0ca3db96edbf7f7cec05d27502","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":32,"file_id":1,"item_index":31,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.35,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"S2s1t6Uzpa","forecast":0.35,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I think the current market price of 36% is about right.   https://www.npr.org/2024/07/16/nx-s1-5041447/seine-water-quality-paris-olympics-swimming-triathlon-marathon","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3e2c30e7db3c40398f3611ce72091208b09f7185864c8e14b9c7a749b122aa92","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2s1t6Uzpa","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":33,"file_id":1,"item_index":32,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.5,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.5,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":["[redacted to maintain anonymity]"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a34ad46899a3d197f338811de60aff12e5eb820412bc2409516c08dc88441b3a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":34,"file_id":1,"item_index":33,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"SE9oSfk4nV","forecast":0.25,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Reducing on low probability of rain","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"4a399bcc76f8cbc7c0b96a943f78ddf8e2bf98b00dceb4c753b4bf1b281ca2d3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SE9oSfk4nV","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":35,"file_id":1,"item_index":34,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.17,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"SiIgce1WZv","forecast":0.17,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Ah - I misunderstood your original comment. Thanks","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"22b228c6434bb64abfc630f574dc743c509331ce0507d7d1c64e0ed92af6788e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SiIgce1WZv","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":36,"file_id":1,"item_index":35,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.25,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Both the minister for sport and the mayor of Paris took a dive in the Seine to prove that the water was safe. Water quality has been at or above standards for most days this month and the weather forecasts are pretty good (not a lot of rain expected. Rain somehow increases the amount of E.Coli and at the end of June the E.Coli levels were 10 times above acceptable limits). Still  weather has been unstable in the region and early next week will be cold with higher chances of rain  so Im not going to go too low on this question.   Edit 7/20/2024: It seems that the major reason for postponement or cancellation could be the strength of the current.","consulted_urls":["https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/07/12/paris-olympics-seine-reportedly-deemed-swimmable-for-most-of-the-last-12-days_6682047_7.html?lmd_medium=al&lmd_campaign=envoye-par-appli&lmd_creation=ios&lmd_source=default"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"df01ca7a30fe5cc1f0f4e155c5bec8ea4bb0fbfe6bd36aa85d2f4d1f67c42173","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":37,"file_id":1,"item_index":36,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"Sg4x84spDg","forecast":0.25,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Nobody  including the journalists  who swam with the Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo a couple of days ago has fallen sick with e.coli poisoning but that’s probably more of a publicity stunt than a quality test   There’s been record rainfall in France over the last year and climate change makes storms more likely so the weather may not hold.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"06a2d5aed166c03b660d6996728fe54268f011f9e8a9679d6f0dad72d1706f82","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg4x84spDg","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":38,"file_id":1,"item_index":37,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.08,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"SOca8sKBtd","forecast":0.08,"searches":["Paris extended weather forecast","Seine water quality statistics"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"8% is under 10%.   My point is that they will refuse to do so because the water is unacceptable every day and they are committed to using the river anyway.  My comments do not contradict my forecast.  I would go lower  but someone might shame them (perhaps by getting very sick) into doing something as a matter of show.","consulted_urls":["https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/france/paris/ext","https://olympics.com/en/news/olympic-games-paris-2024-full-schedule-and-day-by-day-competitions","https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/paris-olympics-seine-water-quality-sewage-1.7265482"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5e87519f9cc777eb796e71bbc7dddd8e9f952b3172c2633b40d8aca02a8fd81c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SOca8sKBtd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":39,"file_id":1,"item_index":38,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.25,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/jul/17/paris-mayor-anne-hidalgo-fulfils-olympic-promise-swim-in-the-seine-cleanup-pollution","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"86e63da1c57769b2428491dba193b56411e6729a88523300831273c973e6a2d5","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":40,"file_id":1,"item_index":39,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.35,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0.35,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Seems like they can probably make this work unless they get unlucky with rain. Pushing the probability down a little because of the chance they might go ahead even if theyre not supposed to","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"4e9001106e269a2cb7cec9aba60ee7cadc2d690912a983d8e57275fe0e56a8fc","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":41,"file_id":1,"item_index":40,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"SsuHJKpbpe","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":null,"consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"269d5fafa0ce7ffba1609cdda3db409e895bf2b9ed12d5ec72e27491d8a8e8be","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsuHJKpbpe","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":42,"file_id":1,"item_index":41,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":0.05,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Quality has improved in last couple of weeks  heavy rainfall is the potential problem - option to delay event is the one most likely. Forcast giving very low rainfall currently. Going low on this as big incentive to not postpone/cancel.","consulted_urls":["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A994Taa1Cyg"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6b26b068ad60d33217f41a19e2d28f2444344b87cf4d069ea402debbed168ac4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":43,"file_id":1,"item_index":42,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.35,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","source":"manifold","user_id":"S3X40UQlAj","forecast":0.35,"searches":["[redacted to maintain anonymity]"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"According to the piece I linked  the water quality is dependent on weather - heavy rain leads to bad quality. On 6 of 7 seven days  the quality was fine lately  which gives us a first very rough base rate. There are multiple competitions on many days  so heavy rainfall before one is quite possible. Postponing one or a small number of events would not be a great look for Paris but no PR disaster they would try to avoid at all costs either.","consulted_urls":["[redacted to maintain anonymity]"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ce47a6916b99cc61e8b000849c458a7bc6b1d7578f3c354f393d5947ddab6a2e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3X40UQlAj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687567,"question_id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":44,"file_id":1,"item_index":43,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","source":"manifold","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.25,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The definition of cars and electric vehicles has not been made explicit.   The definition provided by the DoE is as follows:   An EV is defined as a vehicle that can be powered by an electric motor that draws electricity from a battery and is capable of being charged from an external source. An EV includes both a vehicle that can only be powered by an electric motor that draws electricity from a battery (all-electric vehicle) and a vehicle that can be powered by an electric motor that draws electricity from a battery and by an internal combustion engine (plug-in hybrid electric vehicle).   It therefore includes EVs and PHEVs.   This said this forecast depends on two main things: a) where are new cars being sold  and b) which types of cars are being sold.   Some of the largest markets (China  EU) are adopting more and more electric vehicles. Other large markets (US  India) are lagging.   OWID charts show that the current market share for EVs and PHEVs is about 18%. It has grown rapidly in the past 5 years  but it is not exploding exponentially.   I believe that one of the largest limiting factors here is on the supply side. Car manufacturers work with platforms that have an expected lifetime on the market of about 10-15 years. Given the fact that IC platforms most often cannot be easily used to manufacture EVs and PHEVs  as long as they are not substituted for new platforms  the share of electric vehicles on the market cannot reach very high levels.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f2b7aa0ccb4403fd3e1db8750a42fd22221f70aa359ce80fcc05288ad76a08d8","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":45,"file_id":1,"item_index":44,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.2,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","source":"manifold","user_id":"S3bbH6xnAb","forecast":0.2,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"This is absolutely the best case scenario. Charging stations  electrical grid and gov’t subsidies all significantly influence adoption. Toyota will remain hybrid until 2035.   https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/outlook-for-electric-mobility","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9667e33ef5e996208ffac59d1ef3ea8f8cf30e194f2e47764e14db4977f2e233","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3bbH6xnAb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":46,"file_id":1,"item_index":45,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.71,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.71,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Reading through the other rationales  thinking that... Im comfortable being on the high-end  but not so far out there.   Lowering to 71.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0bbab6c158a82efef231d22b241634e3042a04881fc988a64920139509029a60","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":47,"file_id":1,"item_index":46,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.36,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","source":"manifold","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.36,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"News from China is encouraging  and their export levels to the rest of the world and the cost savings implicit in mass production and other signs of acceptance worldwide would confirm this  yet negative signs such as decreasing subsidies  slumps in early adopter regions such as California  resistance from gas stations in adding infra and some car dealers  changing political climate in the US  manufacturers lowering electrification targets   and as we approach 50%  the remaining market will be very penny conscious.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b8b81000ac1a3fa898e73059fdc1a777ed252687fde59ce87398c528051652d6","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":48,"file_id":1,"item_index":47,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.5,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","source":"manifold","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.5,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"For this question (contrary to the other one) there is no clear definition  which cars actually count. Some folks asked for it in the comments  but I haven´t found a formal reply. Not really our professional standard  but we have to live with it here. In any other setting I would have asked for clarification (doesn´t seem to work on Manifold) or withdrawn from the question (doesn´t work on this platform). Only way out: I´ll go up to fence-sitting 50%.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"1f0d208a28e0b2b1d5fc4a1837683eaf3ff3d63ec5865375991b490ee46c1232","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":49,"file_id":1,"item_index":48,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.2,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","source":"manifold","user_id":"SUpgMvejGk","forecast":0.2,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Not that soon","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"cc475d78627df465bfc0df0e42b23c731e633f1161b86b55bba19792799f8968","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SUpgMvejGk","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":50,"file_id":1,"item_index":49,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.2,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","source":"manifold","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":0.2,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"There is a significant minority of the population that is resistant.   Also  the best hope for a low cost car that will be necessary for mass adoption is the Chinese companies  but several countries have strong political incentives to stop that from happening.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c78b6f7b844f30cb3a35fb5ceabd5ffd70b4272f0087274391881487cc2146e9","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":51,"file_id":1,"item_index":50,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.19,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","source":"manifold","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.19,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Review of others comments.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b089bd0b55fe9367aae3faa2e23a0cd112436c94b60f19e16b658204729654c2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":52,"file_id":1,"item_index":51,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.62,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","source":"manifold","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.62,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Going higher on this than on quetsion 4 since HEVs and PHEVs count for this and are an increasing share  especially in Europe.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f72cb832aa1a975755c749d95e994c25c6eef0e4095ba3bc5e7b7269b374e555","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":53,"file_id":1,"item_index":52,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.5,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","source":"manifold","user_id":"SiIgce1WZv","forecast":0.5,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Moving closer to median while I think this one through more","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f6d4723137b393aee336c416c7be4e82b852acec654f48c94b134ce3b7d0391e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SiIgce1WZv","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":54,"file_id":1,"item_index":53,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.55,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","source":"manifold","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.55,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"In H1 2024 in Europe  there were almost 3 times as many hybrids sold than pure electric vehicles (that includes HEVs as well): https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/new-car-registrations-4-3-in-june-2024-battery-electric-14-4-market-share/","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7524b4d93448eb4d586f029902f53324e7380bbeb384f6c3d8490f924734f484","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":55,"file_id":1,"item_index":54,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.17,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","source":"manifold","user_id":"S488gnM8HQ","forecast":0.17,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"0.  Yes to China  no for the rest of the world. <br>   1.  Many to most older homes (in the US) cannot handle the amps needed to install a Level 2 charger without upgrading the wiring  this is a significant cost overlooked by pundits;  Compare/contrast the US with China---the skew of Chinese housing towards modern multi-family buildings makes converting to a charging infrastructure much more easier and cheaper.   2.  Theoretically electric powertrains are a magnitude better than gasoline-engines in terms of maintenance and reliability---however in the real world  the reliability of electric cars is (anecdotally) all over-the-map.  The dominant failure point of electric vehicles is the motor and infotainment system  which wholly depends on the quality of parts used and the competence of the assembly.   3.  Expected resale value of electric vehicles in the US.  One aspect that buoys the resale value of gasoline values in the US is that even a poorly maintained vehicle can be kept going by a 3rd or 4th owner with $500-worth of repairs on a semi-annual basis using aftermarket parts.  With electric vehicles  it is still uncertain whether  for example  the 4th owner (who makes $40 000 per year) of a Tesla 3 with 150 000 miles will be able to afford to use that car---anecdotes are all over the map  with the most prominent example being a Tesla S owner who has driven >1 200 000 miles in his Tesla on the 4th battery pack and has gone through 14 motors.  Severe depreciation of 10 year old EVs will have a cascade effect which will eventually affect original owners.   4.  If there is a sustained and pronounced heat wave in the Northeast that pushes demand to the limits of the regional electric grid  do not be surprised if an emergency measure is to forcibly throttle the electricity consumption of electric charging networks.   Add the possibility of throttle/brownout anxiety to range anxiety.   5.  Electric cars perform poorly during the extremes of northern US continental winters.  (compare/contrast winter temperature range in the US Rust Belt versus Los Angeles  London  Shanghai).","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3ad9de75dabc12997db1b6f46adf9c84d0f2c5b2e8af4675f4d6af16b501e4bc","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S488gnM8HQ","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":56,"file_id":1,"item_index":55,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.46,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","source":"manifold","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.46,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"https://www.statista.com/statistics/1202364/ev-global-market-share/   The market share of electric vehicles is growing rapidly: by 2030  one in four new cars sold will be battery-powered. It is projected that this figure will increase to over 80 percent by 2050. Electric vehicles are tipped to account for almost 70 percent of the global car parc by 2050.   https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicles   If all manufacturers’ targets on vehicle electrification are combined  between 42% and 58% of car sales in 2030 could be electric.   In the NZE Scenario  electric car sales reach around 65% of total car sales in 2030   If we average the three percentages (25%  50%  65%)  It will be 46%.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c147bc302cea1bc29d7df0853d26f4a553479e9b97b60052dafafed150313926","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":57,"file_id":1,"item_index":56,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.65,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","source":"manifold","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0.65,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Same as q4?","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"8547fb4f0fcdb47acc39f5230397144be2965ac12ce40d8be8ef69d549bd91b2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":58,"file_id":1,"item_index":57,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.24,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","source":"manifold","user_id":"SsuHJKpbpe","forecast":0.24,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"According to the International Energy Agency  demand for rare earth elements is expected to reach three to seven times current levels by 2040; demand for other critical minerals such as lithium may multiply 40-fold. Delivering on the 2016 Paris Agreement  under which signatory nations are obligated to reduce emissions to cap the global temperature increase  would require the global mineral supply to quadruple within the same time frame. At the current rate  supply is on track to merely double.   ...   Opening new mines can take decades.   https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/01/05/1084791/rare-earth-materials-clean-energy/","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"869a39f54cbbb5231fd6d3d22083e1c0373c6cd58eafe83c5830b6e60fcfe0a7","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsuHJKpbpe","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":59,"file_id":1,"item_index":58,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.35,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","source":"manifold","user_id":"S3X40UQlAj","forecast":0.35,"searches":["world electric car market share","china car tariffs europe"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"As far as I can tell  there is no explicit clarification on the manifold markets site whether or not Plug-in Hybrids count as electric vehicles for the purpose of this question. Im assuming they do not count and only purely electric cars with no combustion engines do.   Recent numbers from China have been very encouraging and given electromobility bulls new hope. China will almost certainly reach that threshhold way before 2030  but most other important markets  notably China and Europe (with big differences within countries) lag behind. In both  I see charging infrastructure as the major chokepoint - these countries have been slow to add large amounts of charging stations and could hardly even deal with that many electric vehicles being added to the fleet quickly. We also see protectionist measures aganst cheap Chinese EV imports  futher hampering sales growth in Europe.   Could it still happen? Yes. There have been substantial price drop in batteries  making electric cars more competitive. Ultimately  the trendline points to the 50% threshhold being reached  but my estimate is that it will be reached only by 2032 or 2033.","consulted_urls":["https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/trends-in-electric-cars","https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy99z53qypko"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3e3dd17383d2f507ab0836e5d409b8e875dbd06b83a9025cc6596de32149777d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3X40UQlAj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":60,"file_id":1,"item_index":59,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.24,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","source":"manifold","user_id":"SCyupbOzJd","forecast":0.24,"searches":["new vehicles ev graph"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Naively speaking  would most folks look at an electric vehicle and be like  Oh  an electric vehicle thats typically more expensive than other options! Im buying this over the other alternatives. I dont think so at this current point in time. I think yes  the car production companies will shift greatly toward the EV space  but perhaps there will be a lag between this uptick and when folks will buy  buy  buy electric. The complication with hybrid vehicles being a choice also makes things trickier. I have to be careful  however  because this has the potential to gain an exponential momentum that is hard for human linear minds to predict. Im going to forecast low  but moderately so.   Im wary that the Manifolds market is much higher  with YES being priced at 70%.","consulted_urls":["new vehicles ev graph"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"cea3f133e3bc4164653f7108427e45cb25596bd6a76f0c8735fdaba1cedc8b4e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SCyupbOzJd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":61,"file_id":1,"item_index":60,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.51,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","source":"manifold","user_id":"S3bbH6xnAb","forecast":0.51,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"China will be the key.   https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/outlook-for-electric-mobility","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"34d73e4fba2e5c994e181bd5b3e1ae4b8fd2b72a732ca316eef4bf33a31eca2b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3bbH6xnAb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":62,"file_id":1,"item_index":61,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.2,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","source":"manifold","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.2,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Roughly  100M cars are made every year. And roughly 15M EV cars were registered in 2023. Ill equate both to mean sold. Simplifying as an EV car sold means an ICE car not sold and ignoring growth in population of people and cars  wed need to see ~350% growth over 6 years. Thats ~23% growth every year.   But a compelling comment on Manifold page argues:   <i>We have 3 major regions accounting for 95% of EV sales (China  Europe  US). These regions make up 65% of the total car sales  so as a rule of thumb  we can consider the remaining 35% to count fully towards the ICE side*. That means we need to reach ~70% new sales being EV in the 3 big regions to reach 50% globally. ... EV infrastructure is very dependent on network effects</i>   So if its ~15M to ~70M  then the CAGR is ~29%. Is 23% or 29% possible? Probably. Is it very likely? Probably not - current CAGR appears to be around 10%.","consulted_urls":["https://www.statista.com/statistics/262747/worldwide-automobile-production-since-2000/","https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/trends-in-electric-cars"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3c637f81df661ede219cd8e77a418d3a068322c27bc6d6675ae06c316febd8d2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":63,"file_id":1,"item_index":62,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.71,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.71,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Reading through the other rationales  thinking that... Im comfortable being on the high-end  but not so far out there.   Lowering to 71.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7280b5abb07a25e43dbb4d5b47ec780386a0448039b8077a177ad93f4b4c2479","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":64,"file_id":1,"item_index":63,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.31,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","source":"manifold","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.31,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Similar than previous question  except hybrids clearly excluded","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a76d3fda8eb205a712eed8a943e55dcc40814252895d5cb0f853eeabdd339e2c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":65,"file_id":1,"item_index":64,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.33,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","source":"manifold","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.33,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"This question does not include hybrid cars  only fully electric cars.  so the bar is quite high.   Status quo 2023 is 18%  coming from 14$ in 2022  trend still up (all numbers from link 1  IEA).   If it went up 4% each coming year  7 years from now we would be at 46%.   This will be decided in China (60% world market share)  Europe (25%) and the United States (10%). The rest of the world market should grow much slower. For 50% of all new sales we would need something like close to 100% in China (which looks realistic)  and the numbers in the US and Europe far more than doubling. While price are currently going down (which they absolutely need to in order to make them affordable for more people)  I very much doubt  that the required combination of low prices  affordable energy  available charging infrastructure and overall consumer interest will be enough for the above mentioned scenario. Comparing groth between QI 2023 and QI 2024  the growth mostly happened in China (from 1.4 to 1.9 million sales). All others combined grew from 1.2 to 1.5 million. Once China is fully saturated  Europe would need to add more growth  but I don´t see that coming  although from 2035 on for new cars only electric vehicles will be allowed.   No  this is probably not going to happen.","consulted_urls":["https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/executive-summary"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"45a3f66ebb7e562acda31a327ddd218cbd68cd78130e03b7b5421734eb260933","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":66,"file_id":1,"item_index":65,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.2,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","source":"manifold","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":0.2,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"How is this different from question #3?","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"dca9706f86829ef67c0c0fd35cc6436b943eee44ec37931d5156d1fc1e3283a3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":67,"file_id":1,"item_index":66,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.19,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","source":"manifold","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.19,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Unless I am missing something  substantively the same question as question 3.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"02b21cf3dae16174c13ee795041e118acb0d1820154033df79b312ad95ef35e0","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":68,"file_id":1,"item_index":67,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.55,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","source":"manifold","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.55,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Backing off a bit upon further review  I hadnt realized this question did not count hybrids.","consulted_urls":["https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/trends-in-electric-cars","https://rmi.org/press-release/evs-to-surpass-two-thirds-of-global-car-sales-by-2030-putting-at-risk-nearly-half-of-oil-demand-new-research-finds/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b412d16fc964e81aa95d0b7de509a42a3c6d065ef1922b2cd274531116a60a96","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":69,"file_id":1,"item_index":68,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.42,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","source":"manifold","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.42,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I think some dents have appeared in the rosy forecasts. In countries where subsidies for EVs were cut  sales slumped. Protective buyers are becoming aware of potential bottlenecks on the grid. Prices outside of China remain high. Recharging still takes a lot of time.   In the end  the rise of EVs is inevitable  but it might take a bit longer than expected.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7b1b9d1f3a4a13b310d57c2fe9ba1a4a607b0b8df17b2bd3ded7afb5bccde585","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":70,"file_id":1,"item_index":69,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.16,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","source":"manifold","user_id":"S488gnM8HQ","forecast":0.16,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"ibid.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7c4f40b6c306d35480bb17949c59fd0f90bb6871ee1846611818b8701d78e27e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S488gnM8HQ","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":71,"file_id":1,"item_index":70,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.46,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","source":"manifold","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.46,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Similar to previous question so 46%","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"2ee00ffacc8bf58e8f5b2ac2e44db9549f55f36eb328b3416331f39b7a960ab7","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":72,"file_id":1,"item_index":71,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.65,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","source":"manifold","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0.65,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I looked at the current numbers and projected based on global numbers  also looking at progress in individual countries as possible paths (e.g.  how long did it take Norway to get from 12% to over 50%). Looked for catalysts that might increase uptake  like decreasing cost of electricity and batteries. Current trend seems like it wont quite get there  but I factor in increased concern over emissions and advancing technology and think its likely","consulted_urls":["https://www.virta.global/global-electric-vehicle-market","https://www.edmunds.com/electric-car/articles/percentage-of-electric-cars-in-us.html#","https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales","https://finance.yahoo.com/news/falling-battery-prices-will-accelerate-ev-sales-goldman-164123354.html"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d3fb5070e7b262273906ccd3c8704dc9248849c0cbd1de1639e9e9cbfefeb503","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":73,"file_id":1,"item_index":72,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.61,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","source":"manifold","user_id":"SIeeNsXE1j","forecast":0.61,"searches":["iea annual report electric vehicles","percent of vehicles sold that are electric in china"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"If Chinas sales are up 28% y.o.y. and theyre 40% of the market already couldnt they tip the scales to resolving yes? That growth rate could have them accounting for 50% of global sales in 3 years  maybe even 60% by 2030 (bit of a stretch...). It seems that if the rest of global sales are even 25% then China alone could push it past 50% could it not?","consulted_urls":["https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"54e637c9119c32eddd97b106dc7d70b07db904a49480c191239a470d7c06fa1b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SIeeNsXE1j","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":74,"file_id":1,"item_index":73,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.15,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","source":"manifold","user_id":"S3bbH6xnAb","forecast":0.15,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Texas is trending positive. California faces an uphill climb. Gamblers must pay federal and state taxes on winnings.  In theory  a tax increase similar to tobacco and lottery tickets.  Probability: .Tx(.6)*CA(.25) = .15   https://www.fox4news.com/news/poll-texans-sports-betting-destination-casinos   https://thecoastnews.com/barriers-to-betting-unpacking-californias-reluctance-to-legalize-online-gambling/","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6ab58c805d30cdb8de2509d93923cf8f0d248c2beb4f081c1729654f44d1eae9","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3bbH6xnAb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":75,"file_id":1,"item_index":74,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.235,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.235,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Even with how much sports betting has taken the US by storm  the path to this question resolving positively in California (!) in the next 6 years seems... slim. That said  a lot can change in the span of a couple of years  so not going too  too low.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6e0573ce5d41b4965a737867254b1659f3e950b8670b7a41bee18c26ede116ce","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":76,"file_id":1,"item_index":75,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.4,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","source":"manifold","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.4,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Going with slightly less probable than yes  mostly by gut feeling about legislative processes in these states  with different dynamics certainly. The Texas senate legislative roadblock may be twarted by semi-legal and lowered enforcement  which will not resolve this question  but the moral barrier (similar to legalizing weed) will remain. California OTOH seems too enlightened to allow this.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"18293d3ff498bfdf93b26c791a73a757bfd3217fedc830c27a63e7235878ddc4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":77,"file_id":1,"item_index":76,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.3,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","source":"manifold","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.3,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"We need them both till 1 January 2030  which looks hard in Texas (quote from link 1: Because the Texas Legislature meets every two years  lawmakers must wait until reconvening for their next session in 2025 to introduce new legislation. That appears to be the earliest Texans can expect further legislative efforts for legal sports betting.Even that won’t be easy. Patrick has been vocal about his opposition to amend the state’s constitution to allow sports wagering  even as his allies – including Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta – campaign for legislation.Patrick remains in office through 2026 and has pledged to run for reelection after his current four-year term expires.).   ----------------------------------------------   For California it looks a little easier  but still difficult enough (quote from link 2: The earliest progress could be made on California sports betting is 2024.The most recent attempt came in November 2022  with California voters failing to approve sports betting via referendum.).   -----------------------------------   Conclusion: we would need a probability of more than 70% for each of them to have a 50% chance for both together. I´m giving Texas 50%  California 60%  means 30% for both.   -------------------------------------   https://www.forbes.com/betting/legal/is-sports-betting-legal-in-texas/#will_sports_betting_be_legalized_in_texas_section   -----------------------------------   https://www.forbes.com/betting/legal/is-sports-betting-legal-in-california/","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c262fc90eacccce2066acdb5bf97bd492c8feddf4b906355b84b15413466ebff","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":78,"file_id":1,"item_index":77,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.44,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","source":"manifold","user_id":"SqSCtDbxAl","forecast":0.44,"searches":["Is online sports betting on the increase","Are there societal problems due to online betting"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Affirming. Im thinking it may be in one state but not the other. But not as low as others because it does appear to be crazy popular these days.","consulted_urls":["https://www.ncsl.org/state-legislatures-news/details/sports-betting-on-the-rise-as-states-let-gamblers-wager-online","https://kindbridge.com/gambling/how-does-gambling-affect-society/#:~:text=Increased%20Public%20Debt ranges%20between%20%2455%2C000%20and%20%2490%2C000."],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6bdded41b8c6bfb9f0c1a55e1a941e48355619bf8b0b344c1b5231b14fd78d03","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SqSCtDbxAl","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":79,"file_id":1,"item_index":78,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.3,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","source":"manifold","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.3,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Negative consequences of sports betting are gaining more salience. Difficult to pass in both states.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"78f19c8cf64567ae057f137f0ed089905af186ec1494740c390446c066c35b8e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":80,"file_id":1,"item_index":79,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.22,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","source":"manifold","user_id":"SsEu23bmu9","forecast":0.22,"searches":["California sports betting","Dan Patrick Texas sports betting","Texas casinos"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"There was a ballot proposition to legalize online sports betting in California  and it got very little support from voters.   Key players are the tribal casinos  who want sports betting but also want to play a leading role:   https://www.legalsportsreport.com/175941/iga-california-sports-betting-future-front-and-center-at-conference/   This is a bit harder for them to do online  but thats where the real money is  and they may partner with the apps.   Ive noticed some cultural backlash against advertising sports betting.   Comments have pointed me to legislative challenges in Texas. These are probably (but not certainly) surmountable. The bills recently considered also only apply to online sports betting; the question also requires in person sports betting to be legal. Texas only has three tribal casinos  and they seem very small-scale. So this condition seems challenging to meet in both states  and for different reasons.","consulted_urls":["https://www.legalsportsreport.com/california/","https://www.covers.com/industry/texas-governor-shoots-down-states-sports-betting-hopes-may-15-2023","https://www.naskila.com/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5840c264cf5c105035585fe35c7c7e774d27c6b0bb7252ae187267be21fdbfba","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsEu23bmu9","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":81,"file_id":1,"item_index":80,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.32,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","source":"manifold","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.32,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Correcting downwards - I had misread this as California or Texas  not California and texas. Dropping substantially.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"2763ae46c2ab0cfe2608161dd7884db14d2fbbef47b718e9f0390a172e678309","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":82,"file_id":1,"item_index":81,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.52,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","source":"manifold","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.52,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Lots of lobbying going on  neighboring states have started taking bets in recent years  around 65-75% of Texans is in favor  and politicians from both sides of the aisle have voiced their support of sports betting. In 2023  two measures that would pave the way for legalized sports betting passed the vote in the Texas House of Representatives.   But Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick – a staunch opponent of legalizing gambling – looks like a formidable obstacle. He has so far refused to brig the vote to the Senate. He remains in office through 2026 and has pledged to run for reelection after his current four-year term expires. This could mean that it would take a while.   Im not sure one man can block this for another 6 years. Theres a lot of money involved and Texans gamble anyway  either illegally of in neighboring states.   Edit: Read this as California OR Texas. My bad. Lowering my forecast a bit  although it looks like it will be allowed in CA in some -limited- form in the next few years. Besides  they need the money.","consulted_urls":["https://www.forbes.com/betting/legal/is-sports-betting-legal-in-texas/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7fdd1e348e94f6fcd1e1bd17d32461c3545f5c7497afd141ca712f4053a80a13","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":83,"file_id":1,"item_index":82,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.2,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","source":"manifold","user_id":"SOca8sKBtd","forecast":0.2,"searches":["California Sports Betting","Texas Sports Betting","California sports betting tribes","Texas Senate sports betting"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Adjusting my forecast to match my proper calculations of 20% likely for Texas  and 45% for California.  With both needed that puts me at 10%.  Then as I previously explained I am making a 10% upward adjustment for changes in demographics  pressures to get more State revenue  and there being at least some time to accomplish change in both States.","consulted_urls":["https://www.legalsportsreport.com/california/","https://calmatters.org/commentary/reader-reactions/2024/02/sports-gambling-law-california-tribes/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Patrick_(politician)","https://sportshandle.com/texas/","https://www.legalsportsreport.com/texas/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"45859fca788d1d612d33b6f234bc907c87d7cad061f18c97454602599a0b4f4c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SOca8sKBtd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":84,"file_id":1,"item_index":83,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","source":"manifold","user_id":"S488gnM8HQ","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"0.  California likely yes  Texas likely no.  </BR>   1.  California state fiscal situation will lead lawmakers to seek non-traditional revenue sources  eg sports betting.  Texas is not in a similar dire fiscal situation and does not need to gambling out of necessity---any measure to legalize gambling in Texas would have to extract significant legislative concessions.   2.  The strong traditional of high school and collegiate football in Texas  while obviously high school sports likely would not be included  I presume that there will be a strong undercurrent of discomfort of many legislators.   3.  Significant religiously conservative bloc in Texas which would oppose gambling expansion under any circumstance  even non-sports gambling such as table games.   4.  No expansion of gambling in Texas in the last 20 years.   5.  Unique state government form of Texas which gives more power to the legislature and lieutenant governor when compared to other states---such set-up makes it an uphill battle for out-of-state interests to lobby legislatures.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ff102070db8cec425d1e83ffba7b93ab4db1873514b1ed898e9e75440a60cc26","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S488gnM8HQ","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":85,"file_id":1,"item_index":84,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.26,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","source":"manifold","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.26,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"possible in one state but unlikely in two.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"338c64e27425cabb7e4754bb00519ca73d2a2924dcce5c39542c7a55968ce706","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":86,"file_id":1,"item_index":85,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.9,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":0.9,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I think the growth of sports betting is on a big upward curve. People will bet whether it is legal or not.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"bae8b95951fa72269a8268bc87764d378b33839a7902b8420dfd7012976ab7bc","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":87,"file_id":1,"item_index":86,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.45,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","source":"manifold","user_id":"S3X40UQlAj","forecast":0.45,"searches":["sports betting legalization california","sports betting legalization texas"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"The overall national trend points towards legalization in more and more states  but there are reasons why TX and CA have so far held out. Especially in Texas resistance seems strong.  My (anecdotal) impression from Twitter is that there is increasing concern about the social consequences of legalized gambling and the momentum for legalization may fade.","consulted_urls":["https://apnews.com/article/sports-betting-california-texas-florida-5f43c0595239134d25533a51b22a0704"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ae270e6d4d0614cf850661ab41765cde07b2d9bbb3a59a44b499ac03d4998cba","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3X40UQlAj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":88,"file_id":1,"item_index":87,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.27,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","source":"manifold","user_id":"SCyupbOzJd","forecast":0.27,"searches":["does nevada allow sports betting"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Multiple efforts to try to legalize this have failed in both states  and Texas has it written in its state constitution. Therefore  I think a major shift would need to occur. Chances are that the states that have held out - both Texas and California in particular - are positioned firmly in a trench. Folks can always move close by to Nevada  which does allow it. California and Texas are firmly Democratic and Republican states  and heres two things regarding this: (1) Strong ideologies tend not to change that much  and (2) the fact that two opposing strong ideologic states agree that sports betting should be illegal is testament to the notion that it is very unlikely that sports betting will be legalized. I would personally be at 10 to 20 percent  but moderating upwards because this is politics on a longer timeframe.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6471d9f3e9fbcd784cf2933b2f1354f27e2475564daa6c8a19b93b762da4c767","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SCyupbOzJd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":89,"file_id":1,"item_index":88,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.28,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.28,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Well  thats just an opinion question  not a forecast. On one hand  Manifold has done great  becoming universally known in such a short time and producing reasonable market estimates. On the other hand  their comments section is typically >80% spam or junk.   Overall  I dont have much of an opinion and go with 50%.   EDIT: I am changing the number above to the forecast of the poll outcome. Of course its not clear what the resolution day is and I arbitrarily pick one year from opening.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7fe6690a3ea41b1b1ee483a39282a3b54173ed98288dfc6018d3498dea099b21","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":90,"file_id":1,"item_index":89,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.25,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"This is just too confusing of a question  but if it is not about resolution but about guessing the market price at a given date  I suppose the trend will be downwards at some point  as happens with all leadership positions.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c40561b982c316249419627ec78c3353853269c95dd35b1fb47bdb42a3b173a7","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":91,"file_id":1,"item_index":90,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"This is a Permanently open market  will not resolve.  so the percentage doesn´t matter  as this is not a forecast or even a bet  it´s opinion polling. There is no way to answer this correctly. Are the LLMs going to see that? I don´t think so. Several options to give the least bad answer: using status quo (35%)  sitting on the fence (50%) or choosing zero  as one day the company will be shut down (with nobody being happy with the no-more existing service)  and that´s closest to a possible resolution IMO. Choosing zero  very curious  what the LLMs will make out of this.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b9a381e83cb4a6bc915097d77861668cbbfbe5c4fb9b97909902b4ebccf36a16","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":92,"file_id":1,"item_index":91,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SXXYp0Pfba","forecast":0,"searches":["Manifol-markets","Manifold","leadership","manifold Markets Leadership","Destiny","Stephen Grugett"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity] I am changing to 0 based on no resolution date. If the intent was 2025-01-01 I would be at 26%. If 2525  0%.","consulted_urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manifold_(prediction_market)#:~:text=Manifold%20was%20founded%20in%20December current%20CEO%20of%20the%20organization.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destiny_(streamer)","https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/manifold-markets","https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/technology/prediction-markets-manifold-manifest.html","https://www.linkedin.com/in/stephen-grugett/","https://theorg.com/org/manifold-markets/org-chart/stephen-grugett"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"cf8307a94258c34817ace8aea13cac497e790f3982b12ba2e44afddbfd9c0f56","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SXXYp0Pfba","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":93,"file_id":1,"item_index":92,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.3,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","source":"manifold","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.3,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"????????","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"91503beb1f2d585699ed187f0e1cf1b79857259c63f98b0b1e9dc3e43a64a978","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":94,"file_id":1,"item_index":93,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":null,"consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"4887857de22e4097ff305189a9966edfe01399978921a235940453fb66b5fd92","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":95,"file_id":1,"item_index":94,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.49,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.49,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"using current consensus","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d269370861d60774f910af919ecfdd60ea1f407befda6166a9bcdec401e388e4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":96,"file_id":1,"item_index":95,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.2,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":0.2,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Moving upto","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c5c1943c7c63ef6a950c3884f8eaa62658186a08ea7cbfb70f21b987091be5b0","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":97,"file_id":1,"item_index":96,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.71,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SgF5s3i4bt","forecast":0.71,"searches":["https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-i-regret-leaving-manifold"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Ill decrease to around 70 due to my teammates much more negative views and current question consensus. However  I think this questions current odds is just a political temporary protest vote by some and will revert to blissful satisfaction once the poll comes out...","consulted_urls":["https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-i-regret-leaving-manifold","https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEF0S1qOsFI"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"356b2786d4570d67da810aa6ea8b68f8fe7ba86b6b18a75d2262bbad208677c0","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SgF5s3i4bt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":98,"file_id":1,"item_index":97,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.26,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SCyupbOzJd","forecast":0.26,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I would expect a minority of questions like these on Manifold resolve NO  so leaning probabilistically toward NO.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"4db31d8aed1abb46c6f336d76d1d79a2629922e3223c6dc72b7e05afbc2fe167","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SCyupbOzJd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":99,"file_id":1,"item_index":98,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.42,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.42,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I wonder if this is still accepting forecasts (42%)","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"afca5c760dcd833f5010df5270bf33adde500dae87fe3bfec8e583c5bb514240","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":100,"file_id":1,"item_index":99,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","source":"manifold","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"At 38 years of age  he would be the oldest player to do so. He won one just a couple of years ago  then was out due to a few injuries that made him plummet through the ATP rankings.   Recent news suggests he is going to decide whether to retire or not after the Olympics  so the forecasting window might be extremely low.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e8f9aaf5e65955271f60d36f5d5bbd9c085bfdad131f09e9f066790d88728acc","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687593,"question_id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-11-21","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":101,"file_id":1,"item_index":100,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","source":"manifold","user_id":"S3bbH6xnAb","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"No. Rafa won mostly on clay. Age and injuries will not be kind to him.   https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/sports/tennis/french-open-players-age.html","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6f8a6787133fcb1ff88b7827a9675664f29b69050a7b38ea6693c013d3d0354c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3bbH6xnAb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687593,"question_id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-11-21","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":102,"file_id":1,"item_index":101,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","source":"manifold","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Jees  questions on Manifold are worded so loosely...   Grand Slam = winning all four of the major tournaments. It can be either career GS or calendar years GS.   This is what I predicted. Rafa has no chance because hes never winning or  likely  even playing Wimbledon again. But it seems that everyone actually forecasts just winning any of the <i>grand slam tournaments</i>  which is over an order easier.","consulted_urls":["https://olympics.com/en/news/rafael-nadal-to-skip-wimbledon-2024"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"dc95978db7abd1819179577ede0e4eb752a7279889f289a95edf33d98ba0e106","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687593,"question_id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-11-21","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":103,"file_id":1,"item_index":102,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.03,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Seems like a very low probability here.   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafael_Nadal#Grand_Slam_tournament_performance_timeline   In Nadals career  hes only gone 2 years without a Grand Slam title once -- from the French Open in 2015 to the French Open in 2017. Hes currently in a similar slump where he last won a GS title @ the French Open in 2022 and... nothing since. It doesnt bode well that he was knocked out in the first round of the French Open of 24.   Its worth noting that the French Open is where Nadal tends to overperform on GS titles (hes won 14 out of 19 times!).   He won the Australian Open in 2022 and the last (non-French Open) win was the US Open in 2019. Arguably  if hes going to win a GS title again  its gonna be the French Open. He last won Wimbledon in 2010 and hasnt been to the Finals there since 2011.   ~~   Theres talk he will return for the 2025 French Open --> https://www.skysports.com/tennis/news/12110/13142985/rafael-nadal-refuses-to-rule-out-french-open-return-in-2025-despite-retirement-expectations   That said  I dont think we can be optimistic about his chances of making it deep into the bracket.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6ef36576e644b91427e2a6b6f851b176257526e407b5c8fd27a7d0b885d98c9c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687593,"question_id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-11-21","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":104,"file_id":1,"item_index":103,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","source":"manifold","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"couldnt win the swedish open today against borges","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"33f8c9a7c2b1f66c56c676e74f1be93959154e81ad68d77184ecf699de8536eb","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687593,"question_id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-11-21","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":105,"file_id":1,"item_index":104,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","source":"manifold","user_id":"S7aWY2TYGI","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"2-->1 after reading comments. They aligned with my initial solo take  but I dont follow tennis so wasnt super confident I wasnt missing something.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a812b1070ac6d3997e1a0967b296345c44f3a986276d791342aa0f1fd2ede25f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S7aWY2TYGI","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687593,"question_id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-11-21","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":108,"file_id":1,"item_index":107,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","source":"manifold","user_id":"SsEu23bmu9","forecast":0.03,"searches":["nadal retirement","nadal ranking"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Based on an article from the AP  Nadal seems close to retiring  and could plausibly retire after the Olympics. He enjoys tennis  but probably one or two more years  at most.   Even though he did win two qualifying Grand Slam tournaments in 2022  his performance has declined since. He is currently ranked very low and at the 2024 French Open (where he has won most of his Grand Slam titles) he lost in the first round.","consulted_urls":["https://apnews.com/article/rafael-nadal-french-open-2024-olympics-retirement-804296be48cb504e6e478af430bd1fea","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Grand_Slam_men%27s_singles_champions","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafael_Nadal#","https://apnews.com/article/french-open-5-27-2024-results-nadal-dff0c7946d746eb4b050a9cb0383c7cd"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"663406e20c653ab6f5c9f3bf274a0610c547115386dd0ae3473e9d8e11e7beb4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsEu23bmu9","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687593,"question_id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-11-21","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":109,"file_id":1,"item_index":108,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","source":"manifold","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Nadal is older than the oldest current Grand Slam winner  and two years past his last title  and five years past his last one on Clay (his strongest event). Hell be 39 at the time of next years French Open  and was out in round 1 this year. Looks like his best stuff is past him.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"1c5d8de55a5bb5f2b16cee781b9d3fefd7ff5c14fa308442df3c02021f3fb294","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687593,"question_id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-11-21","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":135,"file_id":1,"item_index":134,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.565,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.565,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity] Given his experience and opponent  Im giving him the edge [redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7b475c15a7eaf467d7bb2e2b27c10f6d5b5cce2121d7b94fe0a936de3661c681","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687588,"question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":136,"file_id":1,"item_index":135,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.24,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","source":"manifold","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.24,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Memory and mental fitness are ever more important and give some edge to younger players  Gukesh seems to have room to improve.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"2223685af9f00344e1f480e7f2ddd88d2607f8968e7e9ebb50b0cfc4f555b23f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687588,"question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":137,"file_id":1,"item_index":136,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.4,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","source":"manifold","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.4,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"This is difficult to answer. A few years ago  he was almost as good as Carlsen  the undisputedly best player of all times (in absolute terms). If he should regain that form  he would wipe the floor with Gukesh. But recently he played far below his usual standard  according to rumors caused by depressions. Gukesh is only No7 in the ELO world ranking list (link 1)  so under normal circumstances he should be beatable. But in Ding´s current form this looks very difficult. In the essence  this question is about will he recover from his mental problems before 20 November  when the chamionship starts  and unfortunately that looks unlikely to me. He seems to consider returning to the second best version of himself possible (link 2)  and in that case I would give this 50:50.   Bottom line: 40% looks fair to me.","consulted_urls":["[redacted to maintain anonymity]"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"1e929e7ffe30f829a2b6119af432ff446f4c686b1b76734f4ffff0ae4e3bb0ef","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687588,"question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":138,"file_id":1,"item_index":137,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.18,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","source":"manifold","user_id":"SsEu23bmu9","forecast":0.18,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Ding is expected to defend his title in the world championship at the end of the year  against Gukesh D. Gukesh nearly won the Tata Steel Chess Tournament (four-way tie for first place  and then coming second among the four in tiebreakers)  and then won the tournament for challenging Ding. Ding placed much lower in the Tata tournament  possibly because he had been out of chess for a several month period. He will have more time to prepare.   Because Gukesh is so young (18) they have only played each other twice  with Ding winning both times. Small sample size  but so many chess matches at a high level are draws so possibly notable.   Also  is it generally harder to prepare to play against a younger player?","consulted_urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tata_Steel_Chess_Tournament_2024"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"146db943ce1de7754932617348d869efa262a7cf7ca8945457ccce7ed8fc9b6e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsEu23bmu9","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687588,"question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":139,"file_id":1,"item_index":138,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.4,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","source":"manifold","user_id":"SiIgce1WZv","forecast":0.4,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":null,"consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"4d5fe398088ac97dd9415d6316c2e7e61bf3e884a585461cd23a1c292875099e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SiIgce1WZv","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687588,"question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":140,"file_id":1,"item_index":139,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.3,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","source":"manifold","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.3,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Ding Liren had a break from competition since he won the Championship. He may struggle to get back to a high level of competition.   see second link below   I believe Gukesh will be the slight favourite against Ding Liren. The world champion is a very good player. However  he has not been very active and his form is not at its peak  Polgar said when queried about the Indians chances of becoming a world champion.","consulted_urls":["https://www.chess.com/news/view/ding-reveals-reasons-for-absence-expects-2024-comeback","https://www.daijiworld.com/news/newsDisplay?newsID=1185613"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"db5f71edbf862f8822db22f5427d83e4f737aaef2cd167f7469f9f6dd915683a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687588,"question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":141,"file_id":1,"item_index":140,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.2,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","source":"manifold","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0.2,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Really a question about Dings mental fitness imo--yes hes 2-0 against Gukesh  including a win at Tata 2024  but he seems to be struggling mentally and my guess is he cant pull it together to win. He was bad in Tata in January and terrible in Norway in June. A world championship match is even more pressure","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"debb169fceddda1053d8cb0cc9f6768d01c34f7d13947b6dcbc4ce89e42be20b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687588,"question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":142,"file_id":1,"item_index":141,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.7,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":0.7,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Evenly matched on paper but experience should swing it  would be a little higher but he could still pull out.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"979d061cc3e509a545e44b6feb40b6817488700430d382313ac05d0d787f3d8a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687588,"question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":143,"file_id":1,"item_index":142,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.65,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","source":"manifold","user_id":"S3X40UQlAj","forecast":0.65,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Ding and his challenger Gukesh are almost exactly equally strong on paper (2745 vs. 2763 Elo). However  Ding has more experience in high-stakes matches. More importantly  in the format of only 14 games there is a very high chance of a tie between evenly matched players  which would mean rapid tie-breaks and here Ding holds a clear advantage (2775 vs 2647 rating).","consulted_urls":["https://ratings.fide.com/top_lists.phtml"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"19bd776b1ab412892c42ad28c090edb12354d8a6409da6ddffb9e226a67b647c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3X40UQlAj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687588,"question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":144,"file_id":1,"item_index":143,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.35,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","source":"manifold","user_id":"SCyupbOzJd","forecast":0.35,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I think our probabilities will be inflated because of Carlsens impressive run  which was unprecedented to a degree. Recency bias and translating this into expecting Liren to follow suit. The base rate is that this type of thing should be happening once or twice a decade  so to start lower is reasonable.   The Manifold URL is down for me at this time  so I cant be sure whether its asking all time or for the next championship.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"65c3786e435161b6b6a96deb43d1e1cadc99c87e2859cc45d3b1b946bbd95cae","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SCyupbOzJd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687588,"question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":145,"file_id":1,"item_index":144,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.55,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","source":"manifold","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.55,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d25fc4cba4dc946005ca04de68b641cb024e560818edd5669cb9200db1d86b4b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687588,"question_id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":146,"file_id":1,"item_index":145,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","source":"manifold","user_id":"S3bbH6xnAb","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity] Contract length through 2025. Injury will deprive fans but not force his retirement.  Contract has endorsements  ownership and licensing making it difficult to retire.   https://www.sportingnews.com/us/soccer/news/lionel-messi-salary-inter-miami-contract-mls/hwhug6sxxh4p8kwym9d7sfwv#:~:text=Messi%20signed%20a%20two%2Dand of%20just%20over%20%2420.4%20million.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ad36989fb58803ea1a7859a67c0603c62ee98eaa3beb5439c44d934502db206b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3bbH6xnAb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687550,"question_id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":147,"file_id":1,"item_index":146,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","source":"manifold","user_id":"SnBEoonCrb","forecast":0.01,"searches":["contrato messi inter miami jubilacion"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Going down after reading other peoples comments. Besides  Messi played and won the final of Copa América last Sunday - he demonstrated he continues to bee useful for the Argentinean national team.","consulted_urls":["[redacted to maintain anonymity]"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"75ef7286751abace80198f8e171ec87f6ab56192667f89aed4b265eaa19df352","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnBEoonCrb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687550,"question_id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":148,"file_id":1,"item_index":147,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","source":"manifold","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"He loves to play  he is still healthy and still good at it. Short time frame too.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9145b6cb8736ae6f4e4068960501574af9a97bcbeafec84d722e24a43aa06f88","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687550,"question_id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":149,"file_id":1,"item_index":148,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.004,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.004,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Messi has a contract with Inter Miami through to the end of 2025.   https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5372107/2024/03/27/lionel-messi-inter-miami-retirement/   Also  I wouldnt be surprised to see him play in the World Cup in 2026 (in part because its in N. America where he currently plays club football)  but also because C. Ronaldo is due to play for Portugal in 2026.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f61cf2021af979280edaae9c76e3a001d41f0e55ea2fdd19069b2f77d9d44348","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687550,"question_id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":150,"file_id":1,"item_index":149,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","source":"manifold","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"money maker and no pressure","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"cd0e5e808ebc4f0147e3ebd52c31c4d01bc3ca7f9dddf7ba0a20089f8ec9afd7","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687550,"question_id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":151,"file_id":1,"item_index":150,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","source":"manifold","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Only way for this I see would be severe health issues. No he´s still very good  earns tons of money  has a contract and has denied planning to retire. He loves the attention and the power  and there are news about him every day. People like him do not retire unless they have to.   Just found a nice quote of a disussion between two of the undisputedly best soccer trainers in the world about this guy: Jurgen Klopp?????:  The strangest word Guardiola said to me? In the 2021/2022 season  we tied in two matches with the same score. Guardiola came to me and said  We draw often. Whats the matter? I answered him because we do not have Messi in the team to finish the game   IMO that says it all. Messi was born far too small for professional soccer  and Barcelona helped him (medical treatment) with that. WILLPOWER beyond belief helped Messi and still does.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"4aa957a73e74e2fc661fd6c59136a059b2a01d2a46c790ce4160b2286fda1e0c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687550,"question_id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":152,"file_id":1,"item_index":151,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","source":"manifold","user_id":"SnOyJtNds8","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"As some user on manifold asks: Retire from International team play only or club too? He must be retired in 2024 for this to resolve yes or an announcement for retirement in 2025 resolves this?   Although even with the announcement in 2024 interpretation  the probability is low.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"53f48226b13291f79b3cab38c330e29ce43a208ce79945fbc6ebc6af748f2092","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnOyJtNds8","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687550,"question_id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":154,"file_id":1,"item_index":153,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.07,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","source":"manifold","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.07,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Based on statements it seems like hes definitely planning on playing in 2026 World Cup in US (which would also be smart from future marketing stand point). At his age cant rule our catastrophic injuries though.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"18b26e5362420774c75396b45873e32b96b6d5aaade71d8ff0fca6573100b33a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687550,"question_id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":162,"file_id":1,"item_index":161,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.004,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","source":"manifold","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.004,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Not likely at all - too much needed to gain while growth rate is slowing.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ebc25b98e1224d796f767ad05c5fe740f1fc3949611b87f85e19ee7ff9a0a7de","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687597,"question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":163,"file_id":1,"item_index":162,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.004,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.004,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"This one seems highly  highly unlikely.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"cc40548099b989ca2ec3db17cd4d9028d587f594b01c881810ccc8057f290611","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687597,"question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":164,"file_id":1,"item_index":163,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.005,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","source":"manifold","user_id":"ScR8KykF8V","forecast":0.005,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Looks like roughly 1/4 of his videos have hit above 200k over their lifetime  but most of these have been live for more than a year. Furthermore  typically the vast majority of views any video gets are in the first few days or weeks. Unless a video is picked up algorithmically or is shared by a major account  it basically wont have a multiplicative increase in views. Lastly  this looks to be one of his worst-performing videos posted in the last year already. Conclusion: extremely unlikely.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"87b63387a36c1d443b85da8b502cb1b462d1fe75b171c7709a8c7f6c78110854","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:ScR8KykF8V","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687597,"question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":165,"file_id":1,"item_index":164,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","source":"manifold","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Very biased as I dislike him  but willing to be above many of the other forecasters","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"911cb7ce9919741d6d64985510a4afd61cef8535aa9ad0ad7fd7f1714e210a9e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687597,"question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":166,"file_id":1,"item_index":165,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","source":"manifold","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"53133 in 7 months [redacted to maintain anonymity]. They´ve got a lot of subscribers  but IMHO even 70000 this year would be too much of a challenge unless they find the ultimate marketing trick. I would be at rounded down to zero  if their number of subscribers hadn´t changed significantly in the past few months (the video is about will it be 200k by the end of 2023  and now they are at 279K). OTOH they would need to about triple that number till the end of the year to more than triple the number of viewers of the video. Logic behind that: most viewers follow a channel and watch  what´s new there close to it´s publication or scan through the archive  once they´ve found the channel. Only videos  that go viral for whatever external reason  should be an exception to that. No  not going to happen. 1 percent at best.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"4dfa711dd9b34ab37ab36c6c805603bae37f2b18fd3d2d97144b6f39c66f26db","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687597,"question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":167,"file_id":1,"item_index":166,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.06,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","source":"manifold","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":0.06,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I see that the video currently has 53K views and its been up for 7 months  with another 5.5 months until the end of the year. Most videos will either go viral right away  or else  some noteworthy event (or a boost from an influencer) needs to happen to drive it up. The first has clearly not happened. The second is always possible  which is why I set the probability higher than 0. The channel only appears to have 279K subscribers  which isnt very high (of course most viewers are probably not subscribers). I also see that maybe one third of their video have crossed that mark  but the oldest videos do not necessarily have the most views.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c60fc15687aad063bfd07c6aca66d67a9a8ca9c50be6d9729ecd5b8428d48e70","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687597,"question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":168,"file_id":1,"item_index":167,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","source":"manifold","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Extremizing","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f1c64e7cd2d38d723d1d29fb25725cd92c68df16d5b7775c89516c1de2bb1b29","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687597,"question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":169,"file_id":1,"item_index":168,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","source":"manifold","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Long way to go","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9a82ec9a1d7948e9537413e4092f24aaf3f26f75869e68793fcde9c4ddb5fcfc","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687597,"question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":170,"file_id":1,"item_index":169,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","source":"manifold","user_id":"SIeeNsXE1j","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I thought the odds werent great but apparently everyone else thinks theyre worse... coming down based on the crowd.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"739f6c1b0fdebdac98b4cd6fdd8538e8370bee0917a69d37c88a7af8c1cb27d6","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SIeeNsXE1j","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687597,"question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":171,"file_id":1,"item_index":170,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Seems low quality video and momentum seems to have died","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6af6effd1c6ddc175b295d9c9eea67c3d948e6575f88d3b13bdd58c9a7c14297","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687597,"question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":172,"file_id":1,"item_index":171,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","source":"manifold","user_id":"SgF5s3i4bt","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Too niche a topic; Virality is unpredictable of course  but why would it hit the video?","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"8ce5959dc22e64c3288e34ac11b02b1dc5ae6a3265fe29d5d71acb9b70c6819c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SgF5s3i4bt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687597,"question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":173,"file_id":1,"item_index":172,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","source":"manifold","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Seems Manifold is completely certain after remembering that locking down mana in near-certain questions incurs an opportunity cost.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"036c1f24125cd8e4f2cb9e854a645ce7eb323ddcd95bbf314cbc81279cffa27f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687597,"question_id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":174,"file_id":1,"item_index":173,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.5,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","source":"manifold","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.5,"searches":["musk popularity","musk approval rate"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"The poll currently shows that 69.6% of voters think that Elon Musk does not deserve 100 billion dollars  which is lower than the required threshold. If the poll is representative of anything meaningful  and new participants with similar preferences vote in the poll  then the question is close to a coinflip to be resolved positively.   Assuming that preferences will remain constant through time  the more people vote in the survey  the lower the chance the question will be resolved as “yes”. By checking on the Wayback Machine  more than 90% of voting took place before the end of March  implying that it is unlikely that many more will vote before the end of the year. Once again  this is likely a coin flip.   Musk’s reputation and popularity have been on a steady decline recently  so it might be possible to speculate that future votes will be more negative than they have been in the first half of 2024  but the expected number of participants is so low that just a couple of votes are enough to make the needle tip in one direction or the other.","consulted_urls":["https://web.archive.org/web/20240316190952/https://manifold.markets/KeenenWatts/does-elon-musk-deserve-100-billion"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3d9c7a444c828d0e9a0f53fa476b33bb34fcf436f897348e753726fbd224ec46","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687549,"question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":175,"file_id":1,"item_index":174,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.7,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","source":"manifold","user_id":"SZINl91huS","forecast":0.7,"searches":["Who are the typical Manifold Users?","What is Musks Net worth?","Did Musk recently ask for $100 Million?","What happened on July 8th to Musk?"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Current projections are around 55%  after an opening high of 98% on Feb. 28th.  This dropped to nearly 50% upon the news that Musk was reneging on the $44Billion Twitter deal.  Thats kind of a head scratcher for me  but perhaps it indicates some kind of softening of the opinion of Musk?   The actual tabs indicate that the no votes outweigh the yes votes by a LOT - although the numbers are not given.  But it is very close to the 75% mark.   Since the typical manifold users are young males  who enjoy poker and gambling  Im thinking they all might place a bet  and then jump on the vote of their choice.  Probably yes...  Is there any way to rig the outcome?  Or maybe they know something we dont know about Muskss next humanity benefiting move?   It appears that the predictions and the actual votes are not in sync.   So  Im going to believe my eyes and the chart of votes.  The Nos have it.","consulted_urls":["https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-over-70-of-manifold-users-thin","https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugaUJ0EtL9c","https://x.com/ManifoldMarkets/status/1787974591844954276","https://x.com/ManifoldMarkets/status/1787974591844954276","https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-asked-government-100-152553524.html","https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musk-terminating-twitter-deal-2022-07-08/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"80d3d085597b92ca6682b14c903d7e35926e8d096a00db850f6b2e949bbcd157","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SZINl91huS","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687549,"question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":176,"file_id":1,"item_index":175,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.75,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","source":"manifold","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.75,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I am betting yes. Envy is a big factor. Next  he has openly stepped into political arena  apparently supporting the evil reincarnate that WILL DESTROY OUR DEMOCRACY with huge amount of money (rumors are $45M/month). Even though its Manifold and not general population  I suspect this will make Musk very unpopular and undeserving in the eyes of sufficient number of people to bring the number over 70%. Particularly if Trump wins.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3e4c897b601ca7ad329b2ad6f76b9234d78f5e76dfb65e0586c4fa6b4b034676","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687549,"question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":177,"file_id":1,"item_index":176,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.7,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","source":"manifold","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.7,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"We are possibly predicting that among the pool of active manifold users  when we approach the resolution date  a few no or yes voters will be incentivized to manipulate the market towards their desired threshold  maintaining this closer to 70 than today. As those with mana have more pull  and the rich are envious [redacted to maintain anonymity] this is more likely a yes.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"48bc3dc4baacd8a10aedda38b6767e5345f62cbc90db7bd7f222312652617061","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687549,"question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":178,"file_id":1,"item_index":177,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.5,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","source":"manifold","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.5,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"What a weird question  ending end of 2024. This is a bet on Manifold about how many Manifold users will have an opinion. So this is about resolution site weirdness only. Status quo on the site is 58%  coming from around 70 a few months ago.  trend down. Only relatively few traders and a relatively flat trend. No  will probably not be above 70%.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e2cd214233ad9187808da8d5af41b96f5815d3ba23d26f17008f1726b5f08c61","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687549,"question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":179,"file_id":1,"item_index":178,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.7,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","source":"manifold","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":0.7,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"why would it resolve no? Jealousy? But I think the people who would say no are less likely to be participating in this kind of poll.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"813ee775b394f9a4f8e75e86e78b0e7c3a8c0d8b08247e632e7bab4fa1c7bc95","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687549,"question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":180,"file_id":1,"item_index":179,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.35,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","source":"manifold","user_id":"SsEu23bmu9","forecast":0.35,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"As of now there are 357 votes on the poll; it is basically halfway though its life  but nearly all the discussion (so probably most of the votes) occurred shortly after the poll launched. It looks to be about 70% no.   As time goes on this might get more evenly split. Reasonable to guess that more conservative-minded people will join Manifold due to publicity of prediction markets in conservative spaces during the US election  though most of them wont encounter this poll.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a5ca7279d63b982d0ba3b137ddf394901bb199ea1c00b9aa8b9550256521371d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsEu23bmu9","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687549,"question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":181,"file_id":1,"item_index":180,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.64,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","source":"manifold","user_id":"Sg4x84spDg","forecast":0.64,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I know nothing about Manifold or their user base - they might all be Musk fanboys. Going roughly with the probability on the site","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3501c3171b52ffd3afd04540053d5d2267af79579f3a62faa9704818abe9cdde","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg4x84spDg","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687549,"question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":182,"file_id":1,"item_index":181,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.3,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","source":"manifold","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.3,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Decreasing trend  probably not.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3c9d4190db34e3e9899222530dc742900f7c6cf1d75f5b27ca7917e3a3e3554b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687549,"question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":183,"file_id":1,"item_index":182,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.55,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","source":"manifold","user_id":"SCyupbOzJd","forecast":0.55,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":null,"consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ead65f246819d48dd9d568b195bf15e33751a03753b1c114ec15dda1a2bfbf26","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SCyupbOzJd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687549,"question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":184,"file_id":1,"item_index":183,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.5,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","source":"manifold","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.5,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"This is extremely silly  so 50% will probably do better than the average Brier score :)","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e0336288c1b2f15ca3dd8870e4ebcafebcc6b23caa27bc9b6daeee690231b316","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687549,"question_id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":185,"file_id":1,"item_index":184,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.83,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","source":"manifold","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.83,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Prediction based on the probability implied by the bookies betting lines.   The crowd might be slightly overconfident. It is important to highlight the fact that the final phase of the tournament is knockout  so (unlike the typical NBA tournament where teams play 7 games) all it takes is a bad game to be out.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"bfe48b7e9bdae210c13d9f859f2b416d8c6a4df0df43f40d41ae700d627e1ae1","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687577,"question_id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-11","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":186,"file_id":1,"item_index":185,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.88,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","source":"manifold","user_id":"SnBEoonCrb","forecast":0.88,"searches":["mens basketball summer olympics history"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Going slightly up after reading other peoples comments. Sports are tricky to predict and certainly not my field of expertise  but the precedents seem pretty solid for a high bet.","consulted_urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball_at_the_Summer_Olympics"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d419bbc9266c5cdf1767c4b3fd048dc29c191e53db21567902c30c6d320320ec","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnBEoonCrb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687577,"question_id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-11","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":187,"file_id":1,"item_index":186,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.76,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","source":"manifold","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.76,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Despite American dominance at Olympics  the US is not that dominating at World Championship. At Olympics  half of the finals in 21st century were pretty close  with a loss to Argentina in 2004. Notably  the last final was US vs France  and it was close. French as hosts can surprise this year.   Case in point: Sure  it was only a warm-up game but the Team USA has just beat <b>South Sudan</b> by one point  101:100. And South Sudan is not Argentina  France or even Luthuania.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6d779edaf0b819ad18a6809f9167ca8c48621bef956538823ddbada3da2f0cf5","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687577,"question_id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-11","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":188,"file_id":1,"item_index":187,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.967,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.967,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Team USA are the odds on favourite (by quite a bit).   https://www.foxsports.com/stories/olympics/2024-olympic-basketball-odds-paris   Also  the countries in the USs group are... unlikely to challenge the US. The best team would be Puerto Rico who have odds at +30 000 (that means -- if you bet $100 on Puerto Rico to win -- and they do -- youll win $30 000).   So  USA likely finishes as the best team in the group stage  which means  based on how theyre doing the draw  the USA will be one of the top two teams in the whole thing.   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball_at_the_2024_Summer_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_tournament#Knockout_stage   That means  theyre unlikely to face one of the weaker teams that remain in the tournament in the quarterfinals. My guess is they wont be close to challenged until the semi-finals.   Giving them a really high percentage here.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"41defdb01d42aa5d13bf936ee1ee823883d3c7c379a0bf5d9843101661799fd6","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687577,"question_id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-11","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":192,"file_id":1,"item_index":191,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.88,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","source":"manifold","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.88,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"US has one 7/8 Gold Medals in the pro era and definitely as the best team on paper. Stars seem to be motivated  which has been the main issue with past teams. Coming in around group consensus.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"090395e9f0734a2b44d253d5d873322ce127e42a747150426e8d7a7fea8dd4f8","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687577,"question_id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-11","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":199,"file_id":1,"item_index":198,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.9,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","source":"manifold","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.9,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"7/8 base rate and doubling the odds since everyone seems to believe that the current lineup is particularly strong","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"4c8cbcaf4f4c9df69ce06c213c4bedf73f39b6ac93e7ee8a8598281899c66fc8","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687577,"question_id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-11","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":200,"file_id":1,"item_index":199,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.13,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","source":"manifold","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.13,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"13% is the probability implied by the current betting lines already available.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"cc49cc9c73a8dda58c5ad170ca32103ee32015ceff7fb1e231177d5551af1ae3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687573,"question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2026-07-16","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":201,"file_id":1,"item_index":200,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","source":"manifold","user_id":"S3bbH6xnAb","forecast":0.1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"New manager for World Cup. Rated 7th. They will be a seeded team. Prediction of quarter to semi finals.   https://eloratings.net/","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"910606e91843bb905fad179e05bbb096c31edac2d07783c815063b25e51b8229","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3bbH6xnAb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687573,"question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2026-07-16","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":202,"file_id":1,"item_index":201,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","source":"manifold","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I dont understand whats wrong with England but it always  despite of having regal players  displays dreadful soccer. The UEFA 2024 is just the latest reminder of that. 2026 is only two years away  so I dont expect either huge changes in the squad or significant changes in the way they play as a team.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"75c5849d441e36ce94ccfc8411c2d5698ce51b416754ae4bc2d706c7c9d0030d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687573,"question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2026-07-16","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":203,"file_id":1,"item_index":202,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.044,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.044,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Very low chance to my mind. England just lost to Spain in the Euro Cup and the Euro Cup doesnt include perennial powerhouses like Argentina and Brazil (South American teams). A lot will depend on the draw (i.e. where are the different teams placed across groups). That said  this far out  AND with the the 50% increase in teams (used to be 32 and now were gonna have 48!)  it mathematically lowers every teams possible chance of winning by sheer math.   Here are the current world rankings --> https://inside.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men   Im putting Englands chance at... single digits.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"72a508422b98d01627117e14c598e2377b537de80469c23f933cba14df864ecf","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687573,"question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2026-07-16","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":204,"file_id":1,"item_index":203,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","source":"manifold","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.05,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"maybe semis if they are lucky. 2026 features more teams.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"469788f702eb7b8eaff9df5299dab0342cacdaae26b2aed1201a47769bfe32be","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687573,"question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2026-07-16","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":205,"file_id":1,"item_index":204,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","source":"manifold","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.03,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Basic knowledge of current soccer.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f248157157839a1248fd5042da59de2e385756e2237efda248edddbaa6edf5e2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687573,"question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2026-07-16","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":206,"file_id":1,"item_index":205,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","source":"manifold","user_id":"SsEu23bmu9","forecast":0.1,"searches":["England 2026 World Cup"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Down a little after further consideration.","consulted_urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Men%27s_World_Ranking","https://www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/2026-world-cup-power-rankings-france-england-lead-lionel-messis-argentina-fourth-usmnt-in-top-10/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"8c89972526ffa40c8853b917ad59b793d10073da82f95311a9c48ecf15e18cce","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsEu23bmu9","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687573,"question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2026-07-16","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":207,"file_id":1,"item_index":206,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","source":"manifold","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Agreed - thats what I was trying to communicate with them being a public team. If they are at +650 they should be more like +900 or +1000. But I was also looking at Vegas odds  which might mitigate the home field advantage somewhat.","consulted_urls":["https://www.vegasinsider.com/soccer/odds/world-cup/","https://eloratings.net/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a72291aa3835fd359b1b06cbcd5a207f285dce97a18dede64bd2d7b3dd329c43","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687573,"question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2026-07-16","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":208,"file_id":1,"item_index":207,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.08,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","source":"manifold","user_id":"SE9oSfk4nV","forecast":0.08,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Durinbg recent European Championship they went into final (although their performance was not impresive ) where were defeated by Spain 2:1  however Spain with their young team was much better in final game as well as during whole tournament. England has few promising young stars which may improve in next two years with Jude Bellingham predicted to be next superstar already playing for Real Madrid. Most bookmakers have them at 8 which translates into 12% but I think it is generous.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"11572194affd5872f45a2f0f252f24cd25ae948f8aaaf1b567ab30bc29e4af2a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SE9oSfk4nV","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687573,"question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2026-07-16","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":209,"file_id":1,"item_index":208,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.09,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","source":"manifold","user_id":"Sg4x84spDg","forecast":0.09,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"1. England’s relatively good performance at recent tournaments has been facilitated by easy run ins e.g. at Euro 2024 England (just about) beat Slovakia  Switzerland and the Netherlands while Spain beat Germany  France and England.   2. The next two years may well be a transitional period with a new manager. The FA doesn’t have the same internal succession processes that other European federations have.   3. The England team have demonstrated that they are more of collection of individuals rather than a team with a clear identity  not sure that will change","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9f58fe093bd8d0e0d18d08f2d4d7ea1b8a7fbb304cab3b85138f967666107efc","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg4x84spDg","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687573,"question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2026-07-16","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":210,"file_id":1,"item_index":209,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","source":"manifold","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"England still have to select a new manager","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5b1636c43ed69c10ac7790cc66acc1eb72aff57f1bc6c3b356c4532a1ca00b6d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687573,"question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2026-07-16","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":211,"file_id":1,"item_index":210,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","source":"manifold","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0.05,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Didnt look that good in the Euros","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5f56184cbbe1b5d259968b95448a5c53376bdfea0aa3f32d8a2b06123fcd2a72","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687573,"question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2026-07-16","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":212,"file_id":1,"item_index":211,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.08,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":0.08,"searches":["world cup soccer winners"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup","consulted_urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9db9f46fdeedb4efc55aa866de02d618bedf047bb7a9e7b0b530e42755632a85","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687573,"question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2026-07-16","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":213,"file_id":1,"item_index":212,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.11,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","source":"manifold","user_id":"SgF5s3i4bt","forecast":0.11,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The bookies are somewhat biased because most sports betting takes place in England  and it is well known that people bet too much on the home team. That said  your reasoning is sound.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f6af241601a5cd233c9f76423a2d332cc737ad3c17187e5ecd6146dada00e0f6","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SgF5s3i4bt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687573,"question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2026-07-16","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":214,"file_id":1,"item_index":213,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","source":"manifold","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Leaning into the bookies direction","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d203af0cef8377ea0cd8d47bb6cf9114a4c81e8337ea4b2ccf3e05a1898456f3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687573,"question_id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2026-07-16","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":215,"file_id":1,"item_index":214,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","source":"manifold","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"It seems unlikely that Perezs performance will drastically improve over the second half of the season. He has one of the best cars and yet he is constantly underperforming vs Verstappen.   Betting lines for him outright winning are almost inexistent  there has to be a chance he gets to 2nd place  but it is quite low.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0b585fae11880346ae20aed8aeedeec51085aeba664a4c958c87a07654e07bf5","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687548,"question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-08","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":216,"file_id":1,"item_index":215,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","source":"manifold","user_id":"SZINl91huS","forecast":0,"searches":["What re the current F1 Standings in 2024?","What is the F1 2024 Schedule?","What is recent news about Sergio Perez?"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Sergio Perez is currently ranked 6th with 118 points.  In first is Max Verstoppen with 255 points.  # 2 is Norris with 171 points.   We are roughly 1/2 way through the season.  Perez started out the season pretty hot  with 3 placings  (2 of which were 2nd) but hasnt been on the podium since April 21st in China.   There are a lot of points to make up between Perez and Norris.  Norris has had more podium stands over all  and appears to have more consistency in performance the Perez.   In fact  Perezs performance has been so poor  that talk is that he will lose his seat on the Red Bull team.   I give a second place showing 0%.","consulted_urls":["https://manifold.markets/Arch1e/2024-formula-1-season-will-sergio-p","https://www.sportingnews.com/us/formula-1/news/f1-standings-2024-driver-constructors-results-points/82a72de2a147032b386eb0ab","https://www.sportingnews.com/us/formula-1/news/f1-season-race-schedule-calendar-2024/1ee3d5da7c9f6f1e7584866b","https://www.google.com/search?q=sergio+perez+recent+news&oq=sergio+perez+recent+news&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCDYwMjNqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"bbc1c4eff2e9ef877046c83799669cfb4c43df5e01615767687f8a3c9208bf8a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SZINl91huS","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687548,"question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-08","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":217,"file_id":1,"item_index":216,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","source":"manifold","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity] Half a year through and nowhere near needed ranking  with nothing to suggest massive improvement as a possibility.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"00f760ce216b3efd971134d2efac6b9569c991c39f7bb8d2ad2322bc9cce7b36","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687548,"question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-08","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":218,"file_id":1,"item_index":217,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.004,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.004,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"As noted in other comments  Perez would have to make a helluva comeback to finish 2nd (or higher).","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e01e4c03536dadcc1ccfd9fbc98339d3b601f4bc6ec8c6ed5ce7e7d325d2aa38","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687548,"question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-08","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":219,"file_id":1,"item_index":218,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.07,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","source":"manifold","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.07,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Currently 6th  and his squad is not that powerful to have a 1-2 this year. Also  must work for the leader and may be expected to cede wins.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"62b2949257f4a0ccbafdb1cc12187388a34cb03518c07c558814343d83d0a043","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687548,"question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-08","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":220,"file_id":1,"item_index":219,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","source":"manifold","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"After 12 out of 24 races he is No 6  with 118 points. 54 points required to have one more than current No 2  if Norris blundered in all races  plus Leclerc  Sainz and Piastri blundering as well. Perez only made 15 points in the past 6 races  while Norris has shown strength in those. If his track record had been inverted (weak in the first 6 and superstrong in the last 6)  I´d have given him a chance. This way around it´s one symbolic point only. Fun fact: Verstappen is sitting in exactly the same car and has more than twice as many points as Perez. Perez is just not (yet?) good enough.   [redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"2b9896b8effaa702048721a7cbf54ba3745ca22bd6011a93cad7877ff41bdc5d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687548,"question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-08","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":221,"file_id":1,"item_index":220,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","source":"manifold","user_id":"SUpgMvejGk","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Hes in trouble of staying on the team.   Sergio Perez has denied the mounting speculation he is facing the axe from Red Bull over the August break if he does not deliver a turnaround in the next two F1 races.   Perez has not been on the podium in eight races in a car teammate Max Verstappen has guided to seven wins. The Mexican is sixth in the drivers championship  137 points from his teammate who leads.-ESPN   In 6th only because he has a great team","consulted_urls":["https://www.espn.com/f1/story/_/id/40590133/sergio-perez-denies-red-bull-axe-speculation"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"96f5feef75c66af9203a3d6841a871420dd57bc6bab590b9bf34ba5f032f3334","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SUpgMvejGk","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687548,"question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-08","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":222,"file_id":1,"item_index":221,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","source":"manifold","user_id":"SqSCtDbxAl","forecast":0.02,"searches":["Sergio Perez World Driving Championship","Sergio Perez racing statistics"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Tweaked down another point after reading other rationales.","consulted_urls":["https://www.motorsportstats.com/driver/sergio-perez/summary/series/fia-formula-one-world-championship","https://www.givemesport.com/why-red-bull-havent-replaced-sergio-perez-despite-dismal-season/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c4239e6c177f8afd8b2ce4991500125898bf7f7798f6a3f3d79034a2b6cd085c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SqSCtDbxAl","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687548,"question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-08","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":223,"file_id":1,"item_index":222,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","source":"manifold","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Review of comments","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"eedc38245d4cda9fdc7c527f888d4b9d738bbbf09d1edac9d05f1a7a8d93ddf0","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687548,"question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-08","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":224,"file_id":1,"item_index":223,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","source":"manifold","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"In line with others - seems like he is too far behind to catch up without a string of strong finishes  and performance has been heading in other direction.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e259aee5fd883265454268835c1db1024f048d888943090544cb10e635aaefa4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687548,"question_id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-08","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":230,"file_id":1,"item_index":229,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.6,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","source":"manifold","user_id":"SZINl91huS","forecast":0.6,"searches":["Have the olympics considered video games as an event?","Where will the 2026  2028 and 2030 Olympics be held?"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"They Olympic committee has always included new sports each Olympics  and moved others out.  This year we have:   Breakdancing. ...   Kayak Cross. ...   Kiteboarding. ...   Mens Artistic Swimming. ...   Marathon Race Walk Mixed Relay.   https://www.timesnownews.com/web-stories/sports/5-new-sports-in-paris-olympics-2024/photostory/111935544.cms   There will be Sport Climbing and Skateboarding but no Baseball.   The modern pentathlon will feature a Ninja Warrior obstacle course rather than horse jumping.   The changeups are to give opportunities to sports that are new  different  perhaps have cultural significance  have large followings  to freshen and modernize the games overall  and to bring new eyes to the broadcasts.  All of these could be a reason for an e-game to be an event for a year.   No I wouldnt expect traditional events at E-Olympics  but the E-Olympics arent real Olympics.  They might have an E-Game at the real Olympics to give it international airtime  and interest people in watching the brand new E-Olympics.  Marketing.","consulted_urls":["https://apnews.com/article/ioc-esports-olympics-video-games-8946bb61a4ba9fb9e20c4d0db05879cd","https://apnews.com/article/ioc-olympics-esports-saudi-arabia-ab66b3b1dca6b6bd850f5c5f2e0cfcf9","https://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2024-summer-olympics-will-include-video-games-gamer-world-news-entertainment-ceo","https://www.king5.com/article/sports/olympics/upcoming-summer-winter-olympic-games-schedule/281-84a32ab8-c4a2-49f4-8ce6-edee5b60a49a","https://www.google.com/search?q=Where+will+the+2028+summer+olympics+be+held%3F&oq=Where+will+the+2028+summer+olympics+be+held%3F&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCTE0MTgxajBqN6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"79707c17dedaddaeb937cc9f6a51c6ec154e56d027f426847ff00096a71fd294","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SZINl91huS","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":232,"file_id":1,"item_index":231,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.006,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.006,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Upon reading about this online quickly  it looks like the IOC is trying to carve out a separate piece for e-sports (i.e. video games) and the Olympics such that they are not part of the Summer or Winter Olympics. My guess is that theyd wanna give more runway/time for that to occur before they consider cannibalizing their own idea and bringing in e-sports as an official event.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"1dbba24ec175d87906ea92158e19670136bfe53e1b2f36c4dad0edf72ec4f94d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":233,"file_id":1,"item_index":232,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","source":"manifold","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Some people want to ban the Olympics outright. Not in the spirit of the competition and opening the door slightly may cause a boatload of issues.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7765c4fa8738244ac73670b697996e3c6adad06efc5450d9b681092ff9d14716","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":234,"file_id":1,"item_index":233,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","source":"manifold","user_id":"S7aWY2TYGI","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Unlikely. Think theyll continue to run parallel  IOC-sanctioned games (https://olympics.com/ioc/news/ioc-announces-olympic-esports-games-to-be-hosted-in-the-kingdom-of-saudi-arabia)  maybe have an exhibition match at one of the upcoming traditional Olympics  but formal inclusion wont happen soon if ever--especially when/if the parallel  IOC-sanctioned games gain in popularity and complexity.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"8df064123abd0d048f8d68c1b4867c871768a54de161d581734fd1fb452b9c97","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S7aWY2TYGI","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":235,"file_id":1,"item_index":234,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","source":"manifold","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.05,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Would this be something for summer or winter Olympics? No clue  Probably both thinkable  so we´ve got 2026  2028 and 2030 as possibles (although 2026 would most probably be too early). There are and have been some weird things  that got at least a one-time chance  and let´s face it: video playing IS serious sport at the Pro level 100%  it´s immensely popular  and the market is huge beyond belief. Would be a perfect match for greedy IOC. So far I´m tempted to give this something beyond 50%.   But... which game should they choose (and if selecting one would be easier: will that game still be in four or so years after selection?)? Is there a serious chance to form national teams? Is there or could there be an international structure allowing serious  credible qualifications? All killer questions. And if they had considered it doable  they would probably already have decided to milk that cow as well.Conclusion: possible  but unlikely.  [redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5ffdebf25a2174de74f6ecec037fbc80c50afa65fbe77eecef5d3bf38c2d4413","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":236,"file_id":1,"item_index":235,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","source":"manifold","user_id":"SnOyJtNds8","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Piling into the close-to-zero pile.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d8400a4c15cf5ab7e73551c9288086f75eb75ad2c928c8eb18520359a6dfb4bd","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnOyJtNds8","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":237,"file_id":1,"item_index":236,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","source":"manifold","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Review of comments","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5f0a83dc7b68f98a365eadbbb7344b9d543fef1ad3d8f34b0ff40a4bee127e99","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":238,"file_id":1,"item_index":237,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","source":"manifold","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Agree with others on this being very low probability - using there is some physical component to the games  and the ones that are most focused on hand-eye coordination (like archery and shooting) are holdovers from when the games were almost a pet project for European Royalty. Only 3 olympics left to resolve and these things typlically take a long time.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"64e99ff6e1c415ab82f7da35c8f5d9f79afe4892ef208ba9a9c83fb8ea2a1591","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":239,"file_id":1,"item_index":238,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","source":"manifold","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.05,"searches":["how often new sports at olympics","video games olympics"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Four new sports this Olympics  three of them re-introduced. Break-dancing took >30 years to be accepted as an olympic sport. BMX racing also took a long time to be accepted. So things tend to move slowly. Also and more importantly  a separate event for olympic gaming will be held in Saudi-Arabia for the next 12 years.","consulted_urls":["https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/olympic-sports-tokyo-games-sport-events-timeline/","https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/jul/12/saudi-arabia-olympics-esports"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b84a2b4cb62945a25fbd72f9c2397fbd73a4a664ee413b1fb4877df16ff3d995","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":240,"file_id":1,"item_index":239,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.001,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","source":"manifold","user_id":"S2co9AhkoU","forecast":0.001,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"updating probability as I didnt add the decimal value to it.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"8c22007402bb52060f3ad3d4155d228b3620ae9fc0ca2f06ebed2550ea6c47e0","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2co9AhkoU","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":241,"file_id":1,"item_index":240,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","source":"manifold","user_id":"Sg4x84spDg","forecast":0.25,"searches":["- process for approving new sports in olympics","- olympic esports"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"1. Assumptions: this would be have to be at the 2026 winter Olympics or 2028 summer Olympics to qualify within this timeframe.   2. For this to qualify as an Olympic event there is a process to go through that may have veto points from powerful actors within the Olympic Community.   3. The Olympics already has an eSports series  partly funded by Saudi Arabia who are increasingly using sports as a diplomatic tool. This series provides a venue for eSports without it being part of the official games.","consulted_urls":["https://olympics.com/ioc/news/ioc-announces-olympic-esports-games-to-be-hosted-in-the-kingdom-of-saudi-arabia#","https://www.theguardian.com/games/2023/mar/08/pushing-buttons-olympic-games-esports-competition","https://olympics.com/ioc/faq/sports-programme-and-results/how-can-a-sport-be-included-in-the-olympic-games-programme"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"4332915389daa38b4023f40fb4cba3b3b096e964c37d88cb53f1114978001628","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg4x84spDg","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":242,"file_id":1,"item_index":241,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","source":"manifold","user_id":"SOca8sKBtd","forecast":0,"searches":["IOC Olympic e-games","Olympic e sport games 2025"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"One of my sources quotes an IOC official as saying they are to be two separate things.  I guess I dont see why they would have it at the traditional Olympics anyway  as it would take away from the separate event scheduled at a different time.  Would we also expect traditional events at the E-Olympics?  Probably not right?","consulted_urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympic_Esports_Series","https://olympics.com/ioc/news/ioc-announces-olympic-esports-games-to-be-hosted-in-the-kingdom-of-saudi-arabia"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"30e49d322f6df7aec04b6abfa4daa538a039a11e605a466eb3ae77aaadfc19d9","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SOca8sKBtd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":243,"file_id":1,"item_index":242,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.15,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","source":"manifold","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.15,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympic_Esports_Series   there is already a e-sport Olympic game","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3b06c02414814eb504f4d1b87d5c3a698f993fb7f631cfe18be6f24704f13a0a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":244,"file_id":1,"item_index":243,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","source":"manifold","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"That big a change will take longer from the current moment where there seems to be no movement in that direction","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"094319999048ca0df7696b642025aa3a08985d480462aebe1d849d9b0125e4b4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":245,"file_id":1,"item_index":244,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","source":"manifold","user_id":"SgF5s3i4bt","forecast":0.03,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Much as I would love E-Sports in the Olympics  theyre way too traditional.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3d76281c1a54f50539861ad0fa47e6237a5527b64124013cbc8035d215b0d9e3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SgF5s3i4bt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8m4vfMk3QNwgsibJsX2w","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":246,"file_id":1,"item_index":245,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I am just winging it based on the fact that so little time is left and so much time has passed without a move.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c7a1fa7632845191aab3d05009f5c50d299edec3a4ce65e6fd2a2608445aaa83","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687562,"question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":249,"file_id":1,"item_index":248,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"First of all: base rate is horrific on this one.   There is no publication date. Believe me  if there was a pub date I would share it with everyone.  That quote is 10 years old (from link 1). Only 5 1/2 months left for this question  and there is no publication date in sight. Even if the book was ready to be sold this year  they would certainly have switched on the marketing machine long ago. Netflix or whoever would already have announced having bought the movie rights. Sorry  very unlikely.   -------------------------   https://thedirect.com/article/the-doors-of-stone-release-kingkiller-book-3-patrick-rothfuss","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e48acdfe8aad0d9cfb909cc071b8ca0dabf614f7815eff2e03097d25024077e8","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687562,"question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":250,"file_id":1,"item_index":249,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","source":"manifold","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":0.01,"searches":["Patrick Rothfuss"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"His most recent book was published Nov 2023 and the ones before that Oct 2014  2011 and 2007. Not a prolific author. Also  for the most recent book  he announced it 6 months before the publication date and he promised that for any future books  he would announce it on his blog (not necessarily months) before it was published. Its less than 6 months to the end of 2024 (yes  I know  that 6 months is not really meaningful).","consulted_urls":["https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/108424.Patrick_Rothfuss","[redacted to maintain anonymity]","https://patrickrothfuss.com/content/books.html"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"bb0d3c319a03cb7a68d62fedb852f2ae3fb21da0d778b8ad31ccae9c9f688129","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687562,"question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":251,"file_id":1,"item_index":250,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SnOyJtNds8","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Not happening. Id probably give similar estimate for end of 2025 or 2026 too.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"56d6dbecc18d4719b1a3d513b50f1681494a8d7a381b2be6d6dfecf030594e5c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnOyJtNds8","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687562,"question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":254,"file_id":1,"item_index":253,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Another series Im glad I never started. Very unlikely this year.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c954ea187b9aeb2d6664d932f800858b64601db47077f092b7970c6099eddce3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687562,"question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":255,"file_id":1,"item_index":254,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SOca8sKBtd","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Given the multitude of delays and Rothfuss apparently stuck in some sort of creative stagmire  I wonder if he will publish it even in 2026?  And there are no advance notices  no indication we are any nearer.   With less than six months left  I am not seeing this happening at all in the question period.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"fe7a67358fda7d33713fc87f1413d0a4663d8a7d37fb6f75dfb0e60a75f0cd68","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SOca8sKBtd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687562,"question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":257,"file_id":1,"item_index":256,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Only five months to go and no announcement  plus using George RR Martin as a baseline","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"334ddb2b3ff6671cfb351e5ae12329b8ab1e14f84b69610f87a4e6f9ca442df4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687562,"question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":258,"file_id":1,"item_index":257,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SgF5s3i4bt","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"It has been in the making for elevn years.   There are just six months left until the deadline.   Publishing usually takes time and publication dates are announced at least a half year in advance.   Rothfuss is known as a severe procrastinator.   Thus the odds on Manifold seem high to me.","consulted_urls":["[redacted to maintain anonymity]"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"2ade742a8daa4b1933dc638cb1e8d2002680c903ee526e93c6cbd0965666a372","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SgF5s3i4bt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687562,"question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":259,"file_id":1,"item_index":258,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","source":"manifold","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.03,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"People here are skeptical and the Manifold number is biased away from 0/1 by the opportunity cost - revising down","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"01efc136e16959894bb57afd3ccbb8c8b101674f36b2007b509415afc034505c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687562,"question_id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":260,"file_id":1,"item_index":259,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.55,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","source":"manifold","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.55,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Instances of fans claiming they KNOW when it will be released and that it will be released shortly seem to have multiplied online. Any insignificant details on her tour have been interpreted as potential easter eggs on the release date.   If one tries to look at a base rate  a small pattern emerges:   - 2020: new album release   - 2021: 1 Taylors version re-releases   - 2022: new album release   - 2023: 1 Taylors version re-releases   - 2024: new album release   My guess by looking at this would be that the next re-release will come out in 2025  and likely be announced at the Grammys. It would also make sense that releases are properly interspaced. 3 releases over 2 years have been average since 2019 and I dont see a reason why she would want that rate to increase.   In a few words: it does not make sense to risk losing some of the potential revenue on the newest release to the re-release of older music.   Yet the consensus on 2024 is pretty high and it might be possible that the re-release happens at the end of the summer stint of the Eras tour.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"391a00d818c00ef885dacc1057f0448a20dc8da5c7370eb73bc5f01aa51243bf","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687590,"question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":261,"file_id":1,"item_index":260,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.86,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","source":"manifold","user_id":"S3bbH6xnAb","forecast":0.86,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"NYT - Taylor Swift is bigger than the Beatles. She’s wants known as an algorithm artist. Her producers drive the song selection  type  and number. And the NFL season starts shortly. Lot’s of cross marketing opportunities.   https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/17/arts/music/taylor-swift-sales-tours-grammys.html","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"2a76cba737d48ef493cb2d7f433fb787ff0ec525d2ed10390f0cd8b9d2b142e2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3bbH6xnAb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687590,"question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":262,"file_id":1,"item_index":261,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.95,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","source":"manifold","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.95,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Of course she will. In December  most likely - 13th is her birthday and the X-mas time shopping hysteria.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a2c1832ac4385c1aff5b2eb131520fd48db36a194e57c5f2d6fe0e925eb85b43","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687590,"question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":263,"file_id":1,"item_index":262,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.59,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.59,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Gonna shade lower than most of the forecasters here. The arguments against seem to hold more weight (for me) at the moment.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"db95bf6c68985b35a00ca6714af14f82c8bed639b6206546fd4773bd8cb1fe8a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687590,"question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":264,"file_id":1,"item_index":263,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.65,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","source":"manifold","user_id":"SPxBFWGyEb","forecast":0.65,"searches":["Reputation (Taylors Version)","Taylors Version Release Dates)"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Swift released two Taylors Version albums in 2021 and two in 2023. There is therefore no guarantee that she will release at least one every calendar year. There have been some hints or easter eggs that a release of Reputation is coming in 2024  but similar hints convinced fans that there would be a release in February 2024  so their reliability is questionable. Also  even if she announces a release at the end of her current tour in August (as some expect)  it has taken 2-4 months from an announcement to a release for previous releases of Taylors Version albums. This could still  however  mean a release before the end of 2024.","consulted_urls":["https://www.glamour.com/story/taylor-swift-fans-were-convinced-reputation-taylors-version-is-coming-based-on-an-eras-tour-update","https://www.capitalfm.com/artists/taylor-swift/reputation-taylors-version-release-date-when-vault-tracks/","https://www.capitalfm.com/artists/taylor-swift/taylors-version-album-release-date-order-when/","[redacted to maintain anonymity]"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"134426eb8360af02bfa7398d47496471ead5b8143e6cbc74254f887ae18a38a3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPxBFWGyEb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687590,"question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":265,"file_id":1,"item_index":264,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.68,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","source":"manifold","user_id":"ScR8KykF8V","forecast":0.68,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Kalshi has this at 84% chance of announcement  which I trust more than Manifold because of real $ and higher volume (https://kalshi.com/markets/newtaylor-r/new-taylor-reputation). However an announcement is not a release. It looks like previous Taylors Version albums ranged from 1 to 6 months from announcement to release  with more recent albums being on the shorter end. I mostly trust the market on this one but am going on the lower end because it seems like very high certainty for an album that has not been officially announced  with only six months left in the year.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"32870e49668de82387baab9bd535936cc0f3f83840398677f6ee76e05320a062","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:ScR8KykF8V","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687590,"question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":266,"file_id":1,"item_index":265,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.68,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","source":"manifold","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.68,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Not as convinced as others that she will continue to follow the cold material logic of flooding the market for profit  although she certainly has and can.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"4597ac5420b8cb01a0a0abb2de558601258a85d4e4bac96eeb82e5f72f14c14c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687590,"question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":267,"file_id":1,"item_index":266,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.75,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","source":"manifold","user_id":"SqSCtDbxAl","forecast":0.75,"searches":["Taylor Swift reputation album","How many albums a year does Taylor Swift release"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Im comfortable remaining at 75%.   FTA: As of 15th July 2024  theres no confirmed release date for Reputation (TV). Fans are now theorising that it could be announced during her final show in London in August 2024.   https://www.capitalfm.com/artists/taylor-swift/reputation-taylors-version-release-date-when-vault-tracks/","consulted_urls":["https://www.capitalfm.com/artists/taylor-swift/taylors-version-album-release-date-order-when/","https://www.forbes.com/sites/entertainment/article/taylor-swift-albums/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"fe94f66b6c4528c3e57577c85a8161ca9702473e38b20324bf3ff4ab1371a3b4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SqSCtDbxAl","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687590,"question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":268,"file_id":1,"item_index":267,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.55,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","source":"manifold","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":0.55,"searches":["which will be the next Taylors Version album"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"In addition to Reputation  I think there is another of the original 6 albums that does not yet have a Taylors Version. I am not sure if anyone really knows what sequence she is following for the re-recording.   Although there would be some symbolism in saving the first for last.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"fb27aab6f51c652c8c7cd5bf8601e6601af39dee814064423612da3bd606878a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687590,"question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":269,"file_id":1,"item_index":268,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.9,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","source":"manifold","user_id":"SSjRQHn8XG","forecast":0.9,"searches":["reputation taylors version"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Looked up previous album release dates. Reviewed end date of current tour. Skimmed reddit Taylor Swift forums. Searched Reputation Taylors Version and reviewed the main results.   From the above sources it appears that the recording is already done  so no delays there in releasing.  Previous fan speculation and past album release timing indicated that Reputation Taylors Version would come out after her Tortured Poets album. Fan commentary on recent outfit debuts in concert indicate to them that a release is coming soon.  These combined with the concert wrapping up in December 2024 cause me to think that it is highly likely that this gets released this year.","consulted_urls":["https://www.reddit.com/r/TaylorSwift/","https://www.taylorswift.com/tour/","https://www.glamour.com/story/taylor-swift-fans-were-convinced-reputation-taylors-version-is-coming-based-on-an-eras-tour-update"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a712d6c31682ec7342c38ba0904eaacacf3c307a2d7a2d7f8aa715e1df21a5f4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SSjRQHn8XG","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687590,"question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":270,"file_id":1,"item_index":269,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.88,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","source":"manifold","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.88,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Seems like she wants to put some space between Tortured Poets (which is still top of the charts) and this  but will likely release before start of holiday season. Also benefits from NFL related publicity if shes still with Travel Kelce","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"62e5ae4e7bbd0e104f4ea0a0ff804304b217b8a6f3fe585191bf2da172034f86","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687590,"question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":271,"file_id":1,"item_index":270,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.72,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","source":"manifold","user_id":"SiIgce1WZv","forecast":0.72,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":null,"consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"96729c9c007b1b702906b08ddb1f59b50fbb14927f60752d06a94ce75947988f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SiIgce1WZv","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687590,"question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":272,"file_id":1,"item_index":271,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.51,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","source":"manifold","user_id":"S488gnM8HQ","forecast":0.51,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Taylor is getting up there in age (for a pop star).  No real need to stuff two re-releases in the same year.  Where would she have found the time to work on Reputations given her tour preparations?","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"33614c7004cc4fa9c292c3d0cf7f6779e2720981d2f88b3f2db83c6234bedd30","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S488gnM8HQ","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687590,"question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":273,"file_id":1,"item_index":272,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.7,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","source":"manifold","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.7,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The consensus is high","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"aca105c886fa5dcd8e799f1e15a1f518855d442bdae8e03c45d3b1762a922fc4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687590,"question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":274,"file_id":1,"item_index":273,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.9,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","source":"manifold","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0.9,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"December seems like a good time from her perspective and she can do it whenever she wants if its already recorded","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d32c65732e4750fa81d22e9fb5b69bcd38d13116bdecb7ae76fb23383bdff5ec","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687590,"question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":275,"file_id":1,"item_index":274,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.8,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","source":"manifold","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.8,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Kalahi at 89% announce but announce doesnt mean release.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e6b4a320946380174b13cc42ea000117b0cf10b262159ad73a36643e657506e0","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687590,"question_id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":276,"file_id":1,"item_index":275,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","source":"manifold","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.05,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The question description sets a pretty high bar for a positive resolution.   Here follows Wikipedias description of the artistic director:   Thomas Jolly is a French actor and artistic director of La Piccola Familia  a theater company that he founded in Rouen in 2006. Jolly directed the national drama center Le Quai dAngers from January 1  2020 until November 2022.)   This characterization is not consistent with the type of artist that would envision the use of AI in what would likely become his Magnus Opus. In a recent interview  he highlighted that his main focus is inclusivity in the sense that he hopes every French person will feel represented by the opening ceremony.   On the other hand  AI has certainly been a powerful disruptive force in the artistic space in the past couple of years  so it is not impossible to envision its usage on such a global stage. The IOCs CTO recently explained that AI will be implemented for some practical applications during the Olympics  which underlines how AI might have been at least an option on the table also for the opening ceremony.   Despite all of this  my forecast remains low  as the bar to be cleared (as described by the resolution criteria) is pretty high. Particularly the notion that it has to have a major artistic role and be live. It could be easy to hypothesize that some screens show some AI-generated stuff live  but nothing more. Nothing on the scale of what has been provided as an example.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"711a3bc7b1d145d53693cd19cedd863074b7a36924552f1a219dbda1a9999955","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687568,"question_id":"KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-27","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":277,"file_id":1,"item_index":276,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","source":"manifold","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Nobody in France is going to take this much risk over something that is rather pointless and alien to the event.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ed5776259824198c50a7af5e2b7367dd3f2ea0e6837c78889030439b99900c58","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687568,"question_id":"KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-27","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":278,"file_id":1,"item_index":277,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.025,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.025,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Resolution criteria make me think this is very unlikely","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7341b64bff702d1344530ae81f4862eb78ab7572bedcbb0d1a103296fb256ee7","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687568,"question_id":"KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-27","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":282,"file_id":1,"item_index":281,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","source":"manifold","user_id":"SnOyJtNds8","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Unlikely unless something insufficient resolves as yes.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"1dc1af4886b87695b0a906ac10055c8e4c57803d0703301cb79fec1dd40e205d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnOyJtNds8","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687568,"question_id":"KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-07-27","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":297,"file_id":1,"item_index":296,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.91,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","source":"manifold","user_id":"SnOyJtNds8","forecast":0.91,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity] It would be close to 100%  but it seems that question author has a lot of wiggle room.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7a1bfa735d46ee3208e9d7a150b42d5a528552ccbcca19c5aaa0900031676fd1","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnOyJtNds8","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":298,"file_id":1,"item_index":297,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.84,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","source":"manifold","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.84,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Upping a bit on confidence of other commenters that were very close to this already  though resolution criteria is still a bit unclear  so not going super crazy.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e3f98ca261bcfdc55ac677aab8c294615378d647ecc2eb7b5318573679f5d7c9","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":299,"file_id":1,"item_index":298,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.97,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","source":"manifold","user_id":"SiIgce1WZv","forecast":0.97,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity] I think were very close to this right now.   The tattoo/scar requirement gives me some pause  as I can imagine it doing a similar tattoo  but not the exact same one  and them judging it as not similar enough to hit the standard. But with 3 years to go  dont imagine thatll be unsolved.   Also  doing anything is a little concerning because they could find that AI image generators can create images of a person doing almost anything  but a few exceptions where it struggles  and rule it as no. If it was almost anything or practically anything  itd be higher. But I dont know of a category that AI just cant do  so not going to go too low because of this risk.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"03e8bb29419b5ba2c58aa68ae87e67ef017cc8c1ff6821e0339cd5001c247043","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SiIgce1WZv","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":300,"file_id":1,"item_index":299,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.99,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","source":"manifold","user_id":"S2co9AhkoU","forecast":0.99,"searches":["None","all through existing memory map."],"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":["None","all through existing memory map."],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e50c7718deff7c95faa64e98d90568bec9ff874a5c3f9620fa6fc77a0f661579","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2co9AhkoU","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":301,"file_id":1,"item_index":300,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.92,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","source":"manifold","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.92,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"We are pretty close already","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6c2b6de303d4a97d6f0f2e5e34f8fa375779b5335c36053504e8c667496fa6bb","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":302,"file_id":1,"item_index":301,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.94,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","source":"manifold","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0.94,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I would say were very close already","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0c192f367238b843160ef3406b431ca48c1e1e138812d0f74754455efc99d54c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":303,"file_id":1,"item_index":302,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.91,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","source":"manifold","user_id":"SsuHJKpbpe","forecast":0.91,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Pretty close already. Quality is not defined","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e69c9968cc57cc0a1be795515eb442f3331f110f8c4adcd5373ad43b1612b760","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsuHJKpbpe","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":304,"file_id":1,"item_index":303,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.93,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","source":"manifold","user_id":"SIeeNsXE1j","forecast":0.93,"searches":["ai deepfake quality","how fast is computing power growing"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"3.5 years likely means a four fold increase in computing power (moores law)  which should be more than enough power at low cost. So the question is really about AI competency. Frankly  its already quite good and with the scale of investment is probably accelerating.  AI is on a sprint  with its computational power doubling not every two years  but approximately every six months. At that rate what we see by the time this question resolves could be more than 100 times as capable as what we have today.","consulted_urls":["https://sidecarglobal.com/blog/moores-law-accelerated-the-exponential-growth-of-ai#:~:text=AI%20is%20on%20a%20sprint the%20nonprofit%20and%20association%20sectors."],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"860bb8ac4eceeb20ac0c5a43e45454edcd89b76f9d510339fd8b5095f7e7a22d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SIeeNsXE1j","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":305,"file_id":1,"item_index":304,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.96,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","source":"manifold","user_id":"SgF5s3i4bt","forecast":0.96,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Yeah  no one notices the six fingers at first glance. I repeat  the bar is low.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"2df0a5c1a65318d28841c36ab9bfb4cfdced63d96d1a1e4ac12501f38d479daf","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SgF5s3i4bt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":306,"file_id":1,"item_index":305,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.99,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","source":"manifold","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.99,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"<s>I am skeptical.</s> Seems like all the usual Apple hype. The best they can do <b>locally</b> is to put in something seriously retarded and then have users complaining forever how stupid that thing is. <s>NB: Apple Intelligence must talk to a server  so it does not meet criteria stated.</s>   EDIT: I missed the qualification that a combination of on-device and cloud-based LLM would resolve as YES. Thats bizarre. How is that on-device when most of the processing happens outside the device?   Or well. Apple is known for its infinite hype and Apple users are known for swallowing anything Apple throws at them  so yes  its almost certain to resolve as Yes considering that Apple Intelligence is essentially LLM-based Siri:   Apple Intelligence: Siri gets an LLM brain transplant  ChatGPT integration  and Genmojis   https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/apple-intelligence-siri-gets-an-llm-brain-transplant-chatgpt-integration-and-genmojis","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"dd6558fc77b5c46a31fcd36d8fea8e81013679ab4a44ab84648564b586d867b7","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687555,"question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":307,"file_id":1,"item_index":306,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.999,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","source":"manifold","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.999,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"This one is gonna resolve positively.   https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2024/06/introducing-apple-intelligence-for-iphone-ipad-and-mac/   ChatGPT Gets Integrated Across Apple Platforms   Apple is integrating ChatGPT access into experiences within iOS 18  iPadOS 18  and macOS Sequoia  allowing users to access its expertise — as well as its image- and document-understanding capabilities — without needing to jump between tools.   Siri can tap into ChatGPT’s expertise when helpful. Users are asked before any questions are sent to ChatGPT  along with any documents or photos  and Siri then presents the answer directly.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6ebb99da631a0b1f25ee744aebfacb0317a9b4dab192c7cbe24afe004d738549","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687555,"question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":308,"file_id":1,"item_index":307,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.97,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","source":"manifold","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.97,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"They are even releasing some good open source 7B models  I have ios18 beta installed and this is almost there.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b91edb681245c93cb47fb7c98b07a2b1e89569e19bdac3d03df3933325ed11fe","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687555,"question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":309,"file_id":1,"item_index":308,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.98,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","source":"manifold","user_id":"S7aWY2TYGI","forecast":0.98,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Moderating forecast due to [redacted to maintain anonymity]  https://sg.news.yahoo.com/apple-finalising-deal-openai-put-073920479.html   FTA:","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"2d6b4335399370e0d764e227d1a290c8afd6f2c3167ac988d50d04163dbb0338","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S7aWY2TYGI","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687555,"question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":310,"file_id":1,"item_index":309,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","source":"manifold","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I am certain that the new iPhone hardware will be capable of running a local LLM. However  I am not completely sure that the software will be ready at the time of release. And I am not sure how the question will resolve if Apple announces at the time of release that the local LLM will be released a little later. But if so  pretty certain it will be by the end of the year.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5305ccf4966fe94f574743f289a5172efe35933e5118acbb5b226b423f351c7a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687555,"question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":311,"file_id":1,"item_index":310,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.18,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","source":"manifold","user_id":"SnOyJtNds8","forecast":0.18,"searches":["apple llm announcement on iphone","next iphone announcement date"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":["[redacted to maintain anonymity]","https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2024/06/introducing-apple-intelligence-for-iphone-ipad-and-mac/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b315f11851d872c8f1af428a5095292b775e1b24df6cc72e4436017bd2dea80a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnOyJtNds8","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687555,"question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":312,"file_id":1,"item_index":311,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.98,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","source":"manifold","user_id":"SiIgce1WZv","forecast":0.98,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Thinking Apple will hype up the on-device aspect  and even if its mostly hype and cloud-based  will be enough to resolve the question as yes.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9c35afeda4af35ba9600cf3c737afe9c3454d964adf95a03cb7f9bf8397b7d84","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SiIgce1WZv","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687555,"question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":313,"file_id":1,"item_index":312,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.95,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","source":"manifold","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.95,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Revisiting this question because of the skepticism of some of the other forecasters. The question resolution states It would suffice if the LLM is a combination of on-device and cloud-based processing. I think its clear that such a technology will be present in the new iOS  so the real question is: What is the definition of conversational?   Some quotes:   When speaking to Siri in iOS 18  you can reference a message you received  a song you listened to  an email in your inbox  or a host of other personal items and Siri will understand exactly what you’re talking about. Like a real assistant would.   (...)   You can make requests that assume the context of prior requests.   Normal human conversations are filled with context. You talk about one thing  and a few minutes later might reference that thing with no confusion whatsoever. With Siri  often the assistant can’t maintain an awareness of context after just a few seconds. You ask it one thing  and it’s totally forgotten that context with your next request. That’s changing in iOS 18  where Apple says Siri can “maintain context from one request to the next.”   I think that qualifies for conversational   https://venturebeat.com/ai/what-we-know-about-apples-on-device-ai/   https://9to5mac.com/2024/07/08/everything-you-should-know-about-chatgpts-siri-integration-in-ios-18/   https://9to5mac.com/2024/06/18/how-ios-18-will-supercharge-siri-with-apple-intelligence/","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"06de9b9cdda6469691eebdc2e432d25efbc5d9f86ca0435b2bf981ad7c83720e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687555,"question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":314,"file_id":1,"item_index":313,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.99,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","source":"manifold","user_id":"S2co9AhkoU","forecast":0.99,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Thats what Bloomberg article from April mentions. Besides  this will most likely be their USP and Apple also has a paper on this.   unless the tech isnt ready for prime time  cant see why they wont deploy that idea as its a very powerful way to democratize AI and also make it have high privacy - something that Apple excels at and wants to be known for. So  pretty much on point for their approach too.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"01f91cb4fd05cbdf70747219840f43793998b178d1584ea279d6f30adf0016cb","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2co9AhkoU","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687555,"question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":315,"file_id":1,"item_index":314,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.99,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","source":"manifold","user_id":"Sg4x84spDg","forecast":0.99,"searches":["iPhone 16 ai; iOS 18 ai"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Both iOS and iPhone 16 have been trailed as having AI build in. Its become an important Apple pitch to investors after years of relatively flat iPhone sales so it would be a surprise if it doesnt happen.","consulted_urls":["https://www.theverge.com/2024/6/10/24172132/apple-ios-18-new-features-ai","https://9to5mac.com/2024/07/02/iphone-16-sales-boost/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"87384adaa0398d53e31cbaaf0374fc03f15f972095100a5069e120d3a30c223c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg4x84spDg","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687555,"question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":316,"file_id":1,"item_index":315,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.99,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","source":"manifold","user_id":"SOca8sKBtd","forecast":0.99,"searches":["MacRumors","Apple 1 LLM"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"I am probably not going to bring up the average very much on this question as it is already pretty high.  But I think it is a near certainty that Apple will have this on the new iPhone.  Further  what I have read  it will be part of a future update for the current iPhone 15 pro as well.   It would be a shock if they did not do this  as Apple is reconfiguring the hardware significantly to support it.  And that effort is completely embodied in Apple Intelligence  an LLM upgrade that will work in the background to enhance several different apps.   Here is where I think we will get a resolution (from Tech Crunch):   Apple Intelligence also marks a long-awaited face-lift for Siri. The smart assistant was early to the game  but has mostly been neglected for the past several years. Siri is integrated much more deeply into Apple’s operating systems; for instance  instead of the familiar icon  users will see a glowing light around the edge of their iPhone screen when it’s doing its thing.  More important  new Siri works across apps. That means  for example  that YOU CAN ASK Siri to edit a photo and then insert it directly into a text message. It’s a frictionless experience the assistant had previously lacked. Onscreen awareness means Siri uses the context of the content you’re currently engaged with to provide an appropriate answer.   The tech crunch article indicates this will be available with the iOS 18 upgrade in the fall  which would be around the time they issue the iPhone 16.  Not only will that device have the tech  but it will be installed on some recent older devices as well.   upgrade https://techcrunch.com/2024/07/18/what-is-apple-intelligence-when-is-coming-and-who-will-get-it/","consulted_urls":["https://www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2024/04/26/apple-iphone-16-pro-ai-llm-openelm-open-source-software-new-iphone-16/","https://techcrunch.com/2024/07/18/what-is-apple-intelligence-when-is-coming-and-who-will-get-it/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e47d103320a98543a4e13bfe6c7ac0437c6b3ee7bcc2de5748642dbdbe4e5805","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SOca8sKBtd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687555,"question_id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-13","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":322,"file_id":1,"item_index":321,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.9,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","source":"manifold","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.9,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Biden dropped out of the race. Kamala is the most logical candidate.   It might still be possible that chaos ensues at the Democratic convention  which is why Im not willing to commit past 90%","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0d4ec79ec0f848594b58a3678e11491fb82ee38b44320ccf6d383be40913cafe","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687572,"question_id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-05","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":324,"file_id":1,"item_index":323,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.04,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","source":"manifold","user_id":"SnBEoonCrb","forecast":0.04,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Although Biden has gotten covid and thats making the headlines  I would argue that there are more reasons for him to stay in the race. First off  Biden remains more popular than Harris and thus has better chances to defeat Trump. Second  times running out. Third  Biden is still the president and continues to affirm he wont leave the race  and many high-profile Democrats support his candidacy. Additionally  in the unlikely scenario where Biden drops out  there is a low chance somebody other than Harris will be nominated.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"db0494499c5b5902f3304bfde3646765aec442f74a0a98e36949e28c06c1e0cd","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnBEoonCrb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687572,"question_id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-05","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":325,"file_id":1,"item_index":324,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.9,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","source":"manifold","user_id":"SZINl91huS","forecast":0.9,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Joe departs  and endorses Harris on the way out.  She also has the war chest.  There might be another candidate waiting in the wings  who didnt want to dis Biden (Newsom?)  but it seems the momentum is with her.  But  we will see how this unfolds.  Leaving some wiggle room.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"894f8a29d76a663211d7f4aadbb5c74521e70e8a6ce448e6d6594acef778dc66","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SZINl91huS","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687572,"question_id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-05","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":326,"file_id":1,"item_index":325,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.95,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","source":"manifold","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.95,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The writing is on the wall: Biden is done. He either steps down  or dies  or is killed off by fellow comrades. And given the state of the affairs  there is no alternative to Harris.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"51d290c0ca176d7b11de7eddce6b3abe4b287e990346d4dfc310078ce84a392d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687572,"question_id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-05","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":328,"file_id":1,"item_index":327,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.89,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","source":"manifold","user_id":"SPxBFWGyEb","forecast":0.89,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I believe that Harris has a very good chance of becoming the nominee now that Biden has dropped out.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d76c2dadb3bccabbe38e37b5f0a5b732c72b988857323daf647c21fd074a9367","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPxBFWGyEb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687572,"question_id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-05","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":335,"file_id":1,"item_index":334,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.999,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","source":"manifold","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":0.999,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"At this late stage  its going to be almost impossible for anyone else to catch up. And in any case  I dont see that any of the possibilities that are talked about are truly ready to jump in. Most of them would probably prefer to wait until 2028. And since it is urgent to settle on someone  the Democratic establishment will strongly discourage anyone else from jumping in and messing things up. With Harris  she basically had no choice but to take up the mantle now that Biden has dropped out.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"4f627c652be9207840b83a4f292ab645d587ba82750d89d5d35c2a976c299594","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687572,"question_id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-05","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":341,"file_id":1,"item_index":340,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.98,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","source":"manifold","user_id":"S5CrWZaPfh","forecast":0.98,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Biden has dropped out  Harris is already on the ticket so represents those who voted for the Biden/Harris ticket in the primaries - not saying theyd vote for her were she the primary name on the ticket at the time  but its really more a formality at this point. Id also heard that Harris would be the only possible alternative that would have access to the existing campaign funds still in the Biden/Harris coffers - in other words  it couldnt go to another candidate.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9ca75086ead8171c4bff4248287e0b376160eca1da6db6be02b36c42778b8eef","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S5CrWZaPfh","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687572,"question_id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-05","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":365,"file_id":1,"item_index":364,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","source":"manifold","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"His position is too strong for that. Only if he kills or rapes someone. Hes not yet at Trump-levels of immunity.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"03d57e89657baa4f00f7bbd068a3f6d5be37e1c78a0e231c5d2ee89a68c0093e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687547,"question_id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":366,"file_id":1,"item_index":365,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.001,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","source":"manifold","user_id":"S2co9AhkoU","forecast":0.001,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Is there a functioning board to fire him?   This seems like a dog chasing its own tail. Rarely does it bite it too hard.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"14797da905c01193071ae6a912e2f3bd8107f84d2377ef0916de06ae36ca2a6c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2co9AhkoU","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687547,"question_id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":367,"file_id":1,"item_index":366,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","source":"manifold","user_id":"SOca8sKBtd","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I consider this extremely improbable during the next 5.5 months.  He had a close call it is true  but managed to rearrange the board and purge a significant number of opponents.  And Open AI is doing about as well as it possibly could.  So who would force him out  and for what cause?","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5461576adfa3820f560c9ae101c2ad54a5f246a5cd86c54d545078b7b5777ba2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SOca8sKBtd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687547,"question_id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":369,"file_id":1,"item_index":368,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","source":"manifold","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Fired and reinstated and fired again is very low frequency","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"bf56638885ded1f46a2ba4994f5de850d736905baaab7c3257317edae79d05b5","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687547,"question_id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":370,"file_id":1,"item_index":369,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","source":"manifold","user_id":"SsuHJKpbpe","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Too soon. Instability bad and he controls the board","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"22d48455ccef071d57e2dd8a18a5d0be6f400b90f69f6898a26b32dd15439497","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsuHJKpbpe","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687547,"question_id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":372,"file_id":1,"item_index":371,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","platform":"manifold","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","source":"manifold","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"> While Sam Altman returned  he is a habitual liar and many problems with him have not been resolved  so it is conceivable that the board may fire him again   --   Amazing question phrasing :D","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"1c07147b30824a5745537854fcbbfb241f566c792533b6448cca45f2c792eb57","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687547,"question_id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","platform":"manifold","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":373,"file_id":1,"item_index":372,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.65,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1386","source":"infer","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.65,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity] My rationale is based on the following points:   - The creation of so many OTICs in North America highlights the fact that their services are in demand   - It would seem that most of the OTICs are not really 100% operative as their testing equipment only regards some very specific technologies   - It seems that at least one of the OTICs is performing testing activities with US companies. An email exchange with someone from inside the center revealed that announcements might come in the upcoming months.   Most information is likely covered by NDAs and will not be released to the public. It is not unlikely that companies might test with OTICs without requiring a certification to be issued.   Larger companies might even be able to test on their own without really needing to work with an OTIC.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"de49b87fe27ac4804446c0776994a3dcc0cd85c737393672bd3981c7a3291042","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1386","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687523,"question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-04-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":375,"file_id":1,"item_index":374,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.72,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1386","source":"infer","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.72,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Reading through the comments on INFER -- it seems that some companies are in the process of trying to obtain their certificate.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6e36975c3208bb0033f92781e6a8b96207811354aa188612e096928d4c251b99","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1386","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687523,"question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-04-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":376,"file_id":1,"item_index":375,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.46,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1386","source":"infer","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.46,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"de8385418e8e1210bd42012301b0ed7861dbbcfdbdd355cee866fd72f01ab3ef","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1386","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687523,"question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-04-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":377,"file_id":1,"item_index":376,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.65,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1386","source":"infer","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.65,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ee5b7ab5656c30e096fec47e3effefe50125d9e6aaeb374b3a26d72f6e9f640c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1386","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687523,"question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-04-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":378,"file_id":1,"item_index":377,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.59,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1386","source":"infer","user_id":"S2s1t6Uzpa","forecast":0.59,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"89579ef90a8d2b699cbe14bda8a79d073805a4e290686453b99144408a88420f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2s1t6Uzpa","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1386","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687523,"question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-04-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":379,"file_id":1,"item_index":378,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.35,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1386","source":"infer","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.35,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Review of comments on Infer","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"046b0467e1ec002b9bc18e75f003002591faeeffbbdbdf64aae35f9ec9774c2d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1386","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687523,"question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-04-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":380,"file_id":1,"item_index":379,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.36,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1386","source":"infer","user_id":"SsEu23bmu9","forecast":0.36,"searches":["AERPAW otic"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"So there have already been four OTICs in the US  and none of them has issued a certificate.   Here are some quotes from the OTICs which have been issuing certificates:   Berlin: we provide high-quality and comprehensive testing for our clients who bring their O-RAN-based products and solutions   Auray: We provide extensive and comprehensive services for our clients who need to test  validate and integrate their O-RAN based products and solutions   Japan: Japan OTIC also offers testing and certification as part of the O-RAN Certification & Badging program.   Northeastern and Iowa (included in the new OTICs) have somewhat similar language but dont mention certification; Utah seems to need additional equipment; Boston area refers to a phased roll-out. Three of the other four centers are less clear on whether they might be intended to issue certifications. There are a number of other tasks OTICs might perform.   Zooming in on the last US center  Raleigh: At this time  the lab setup is under development  and no certificates or badges can be offered presently. AERPAW OTIC expects to support certification services in 1.a  1.b  1.c  and IOT badging services in 2.a  2.b  by May 15  2024. AERPAW also expects to support IOT badging services in 2.c  2.d  and 2.e  as well as end-to-end badging services  by August 15  2024.   It sounds to me that there have been limited capabilities of US based OTICs to actually issue these certificates and this will change. But  in the last year  there have only been a total of five qualifying certificates  and there will only be 10.5 months between when Raleigh expects to support certification to the close date.","consulted_urls":["https://www.o-ran.org/otics/auray-otic-and-security-lab","https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#learn-otic"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"282410494e333208bda69469cf08e34e2ddbb48c7092f131c49a1cb3d3f17cb1","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsEu23bmu9","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1386","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687523,"question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-04-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":381,"file_id":1,"item_index":380,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.6,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1386","source":"infer","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.6,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"This is really a stab in the dark. It seems like there is some interest in this  with real participation in ORAN from major telecoms companies worldwide  and the fact that they are setting up multiple testing centers suggests they anticipate some sort of demand. However  fact that nothing has been certified to date makes me wonder how much demand there really is. I figure the people predicting on INFER are likely to have at least some knolwedge of this  so going with about what they think seems reasonable enough to me without more time to delve into this question.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f384529b1dc9fc83c94a2c82a9b71327e2f38fa288b47591ffbe85ecdd98ad26","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1386","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687523,"question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-04-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":382,"file_id":1,"item_index":381,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.67,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1386","source":"infer","user_id":"S2co9AhkoU","forecast":0.67,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Looking at the background and the details  at first pass  it doesnt seem v hard for a OTIC to certify and provide certificate for a company. And by the looks of it  proximity to NA isnt a prerequisite. Arguably  a company which is non NA could also apply to a NA OTIC and get it approved.   So  starting on the higher end of Maybe.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"fadb044aa1c85ebf662a885bede7a645bca6359b95c532493360331decb46321","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2co9AhkoU","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1386","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687523,"question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-04-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":383,"file_id":1,"item_index":382,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.55,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1386","source":"infer","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.55,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"not a lot of certifications lately. slightly positive.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"275e0860e494c6cbb051fa9f70c22a4cccc679d34588ec70084e0e4be4ebe8e4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1386","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687523,"question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-04-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":384,"file_id":1,"item_index":383,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.56,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1386","source":"infer","user_id":"SCyupbOzJd","forecast":0.56,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":null,"consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"07a80b60510133a7cf6b0d578616df3df89e5fb7f809843695e00b5f1e6f2881","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SCyupbOzJd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1386","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687523,"question_id":"1386","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-04-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":385,"file_id":1,"item_index":384,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.58,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.58,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"An average of 6.2 planets have been added each year in the past 11 years.   There was only a single addition so far in 2024 and there are effectively 6 months left in the question.   While there are reasons to expect that all of the recent missions aimed at finding new exoplanets will soon start bringing in results  one has to acknowledge that the rate at which such new planets are researched and brought into the catalog is hard to forecast.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"cb989d9f31319600bd810e265716a3800e16af1742fadc15147bcb8076591dc5","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":386,"file_id":1,"item_index":385,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.16,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"S3bbH6xnAb","forecast":0.16,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity] Only 1 in 2024. Poisson distribution of 4 more in 6 months is 16%. Probability of just 1 event in the first six months is 15%.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"be92bb6f61c543d32bf7b3b6fd092e18299e877e35674bf84e51cc630e7b5d97","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3bbH6xnAb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":387,"file_id":1,"item_index":386,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.63,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.63,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity] It looks a lot like a coin flip on many levels. However  there are several decent reasons to think that the chance is higher than in years before.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"1f4b71438846d17768026b32669e5518278c3752d36696b3663e6ad58f0dffdd","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":388,"file_id":1,"item_index":387,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.72,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.72,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Again  reading through the INFER site  it seems that there is a bit of a science/art to predicting this one (lots of good info already in the comments over there). Given that these forecasts will be frozen  Im gonna shade a bit below the crowd because I wont be able to decay as time passes.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"1f5a9b6cff17a5b073f6136d5b6f81f3fea83523c6413a4ff513aad1ec4f77bd","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":389,"file_id":1,"item_index":388,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.26,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.26,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I feel the Infer pros are unneccesarily optimistic about this  the low hanging fruit has been identified already and questions remain about false positives.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b2cdce1b7019fb4943ceee5216209c83967c9dd478636dbc2658bee9b4eb37b6","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":390,"file_id":1,"item_index":389,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.5,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"S7aWY2TYGI","forecast":0.5,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"1. I started to assemble base rate data from the cvs files provided by the Habitable Worlds Catalog  then fortunately thought to look further back in the comments on INFER  found robust base rate data there--along with an extensive discussion of reasons why 2024 might deviate from it. <br>   2. Nevertheless  weve only got 5.5 months left on this  and the discovery of exoplanets in 2024 relative to recent years appears (from the cvs data I downloaded) to be markedly slower. [redacted to maintain anonymity]  3. That same source predicted 5-10 potentially habitable planets were likely be discovered in 2024  but that was in April--3 months ago  and it doesnt seem as though were on track to meet that prediction. Not seeing signs the the JWST is resulting in a flood of new potential planets  Im guessing because its being put to other uses. <br>   4. And theres always a chance--maybe a good one--that an exoplanet discovered in 2024 wont be deemed potentially habitable by HWC until after 31 Jan 2025. <br>   5. Bottom line: given how much time has already run out on this question  and the retirement of Kepler/K2 in 2018  I think moving down from the base rate and current aggregate forecast on INFER is justified.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"cd7560434883fba32ad9636f5c10903c739b65f4573a61d4742e54744bd1cce0","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S7aWY2TYGI","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":391,"file_id":1,"item_index":390,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.75,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.75,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"94f88e5e3317bdfdc695b8d2f16d7757dcb525ba6e7c3ff781552c71d86c0654","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":392,"file_id":1,"item_index":391,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.68,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"S2s1t6Uzpa","forecast":0.68,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a85b22fbb27e77a5d7ff27152d7425cea7524390fe48d61df1120b046c310213","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2s1t6Uzpa","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":393,"file_id":1,"item_index":392,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.3,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.3,"searches":["potentially habitable world"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Apparent base rate plus recent media coverage/additions.   Current number is 1 (TOI-904 c)","consulted_urls":["Everything included above. Looked in depth at every section of the Infer page.","[redacted to maintain anonymity]"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"217ba3468f2aff79311de49a5d18c46d867a5368b462530d170315833895b509","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":394,"file_id":1,"item_index":393,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.3,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"SsEu23bmu9","forecast":0.3,"searches":["habitable worlds discovered 2024"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"It looks like only one has been added this year; the current website gives the number as 70  as opposed to 69 in the resolution criteria.   NASA has a site which seems to update regularly for all exoplanets: https://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/   I suppose one could say that at any given time ~1.4% of exoplanets will be potentially habitable (more information will be found about exoplanets already discovered  but new ones with insufficient information will be discovered  not sure how that balance would work out). Looks like around 135 have been discovered so far in 2024  which would track to under 357 for the year. That checks out with only one potentially habitable world being added.   There is another that might be added  Gliese 12:   https://science.nasa.gov/universe/exoplanets/nasas-tess-finds-intriguing-world-sized-between-earth-venus/   But note that it was discovered in May and has not been added to the catalog ~2 months later.","consulted_urls":["https://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/","https://science.nasa.gov/universe/exoplanets/nasas-tess-finds-intriguing-world-sized-between-earth-venus/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5f005bbe2347ed948c7f2b98b51442f1e3b9be1a9bab6eb0c941aa933bc4e8c3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsEu23bmu9","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":395,"file_id":1,"item_index":394,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.75,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.75,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Going with experts  a little lower based on lack of progress so far this year  but still 5.5 months to go.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c46d9b5ab38ecd05e42a5de59611daea1b418905e9e791e094353d04d0f10a38","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":396,"file_id":1,"item_index":395,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.36,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"SiIgce1WZv","forecast":0.36,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Moved up a bit [redacted to maintain anonymity]. I suspect we might be on the wrong side of 50% on this one  but Im no expert in this field  so disregard with ease.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7f5ebbec75c6552919f31f52b6cc84f9b5f231299f0c30d1dd9baeae68a94c56","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SiIgce1WZv","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":397,"file_id":1,"item_index":396,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.6,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.6,"searches":["how many potentially habitable planets discovered 2024","jwst habitable planets research"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Edit: text added to first comment","consulted_urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_exoplanets_discovered_in_2024","https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1373","https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/05/240523112455.htm","https://astrobiology.com/2024/06/three-potential-super-earths-discovered-around-nearby-star-hd-48-948.html","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_habitability","https://earthsky.org/space/habitable-exoplanets-chandra-x-ray-observatory-xmm-newton-stars/","https://www.slashgear.com/1611667/nasa-plans-to-discover-potentially-habitable-worlds/","https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/deep-space/a61412268/super-earths-orange-dwarf-exoplanets-extra-terrestrial-life/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9f7cd460570ae8c02c8f08ba07f9749e28a9c32c5bd922a2e6a3e14e3acf6ace","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":398,"file_id":1,"item_index":397,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"S2co9AhkoU","forecast":0.25,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Almost 7 months done and 1 has been identified this year. Just wonder what is the time period between identifying and getting it approved as a potential candidate and how many are in the pipeline currently.   And out of the 70  only 29 are potentially habitable while the remaining could most likely be water planets. lots to unpack to get an accurate forecast.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7eae452c594097c4d85c30239683daf8fa469c21496e0893cdd137f89707808e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2co9AhkoU","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":399,"file_id":1,"item_index":398,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.5,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.5,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"50/50","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ca5b6a60baba34be9f14de21a485345e59638657e1d937c730859aff49c23db3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":400,"file_id":1,"item_index":399,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.21,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":0.21,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Agree with comments re low hanging fruit may have been identified and with only 1 for first six months  I think this is low probabiltiy.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"1352c5d47aa4566a7227a159ae3c7a4f42f1ade1c88c8d9b4d3e7ebd230f82f8","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":401,"file_id":1,"item_index":400,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.75,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"SgF5s3i4bt","forecast":0.75,"searches":["[redacted to maintain anonymity]"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"I know the Infer crowd is very knowledgeable on this. Following their probability.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7a3f5e2cc15c8286f4cc43cfab5139b770205d063d49aad4327d3cd35f607a6a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SgF5s3i4bt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":402,"file_id":1,"item_index":401,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.82,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"SSPpd7YIH0","forecast":0.82,"searches":["What will replace Arecibo"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"compare rates of discovery total  last year  February to date (1 was added).   determine if the rate of discovery for remainder of year is likely.   review if there are other collection methods besides Arecibo   Soft  believe that researchers are focused on finding these planets   Compare to crowd forecast","consulted_urls":["https://phl.upr.edu/hwc","https://www.quora.com/What-will-succeed-the-Arecibo-Observatory"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a787cc4a9ce593eb937640413bfcfed712e2aa018211fddb8d426d6e3b588b75","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SSPpd7YIH0","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":403,"file_id":1,"item_index":402,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.7,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1373","source":"infer","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.7,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Going with the Pros since theyve had more time to research this :P","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f73c6754d85f5b98d02ff932f5c932a09608804d01ac5c830730378f1e5b1d8f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1373","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687521,"question_id":"1373","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":404,"file_id":1,"item_index":403,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1363","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1363","source":"infer","user_id":"SnBEoonCrb","forecast":0,"searches":["myanmar elections"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Rounding down to zero - the junta seems to be far from crushing the rebel forces  and there is no incentive to call an election.","consulted_urls":["https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmars-next-election-may-not-be-nationwide-junta-chief-says-2024-03-25/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a1f18df277573cefee33c9d5912d82be4e0c6042b49ef002e929c2e9328aa48f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnBEoonCrb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1363","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687519,"question_id":"1363","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-07-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":413,"file_id":1,"item_index":412,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1363","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.04,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1363","source":"infer","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.04,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"reducing further","consulted_urls":["https://myanmarelectionwatch.org/en/news/myanmar-junta-chief-min-aung-hlaing-announces-2025-sham-election","https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/coup-leader-keeps-discussing-election-plans-despite-intensifying-nationwide-conflicts","https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/election-commission-bars-rohingya-kachin-parties-07092024071434.html"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7cbf1f108cb0d730b86df617d208cfe469d033895f57ba87af5b81ca34e788e1","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1363","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687519,"question_id":"1363","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-07-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":414,"file_id":1,"item_index":413,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1363","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1363","source":"infer","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Seems like the situation is too bloody and volatile for elections  and not likely to quiet down enough to meet the deadline","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"db5f4ccfa3555625d0ee3db8e15f47d6497f7a95d31027d602b211f17a31198f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1363","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687519,"question_id":"1363","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-07-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":415,"file_id":1,"item_index":414,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1363","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1363","source":"infer","user_id":"SgF5s3i4bt","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Yeah  just researching for this question five minutes made me very depressed.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"76fba4c3c7c1380f5bec2843100fc81bf416cca7cecc80789510590e9d1962b6","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SgF5s3i4bt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1363","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687519,"question_id":"1363","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-07-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":416,"file_id":1,"item_index":415,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1399","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.85,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1399","source":"infer","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.85,"searches":["venezuela elections 2024"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Maduro is the 61-year-old President of Venezuela. His base rate risk of natural death within the next 6 months is low  0.5% could be a decent starting point.   INFER forecasters expect a 97% chance that he will stay in the office until January 2021. Aggregate forecasts from Manifold and Metaculus predict a 23% chance that he will lose the election and a 17% chance he will not “abdicate” in such a case. This implies a 96% chance that he will remain President after the elections.   These very confident forecasts contradict some of the information available on the subject  particularly the notion that Maduro is down more than 20 points in the polls. The underlying assumptions are that: a) elections won’t be fair nor free  b) Maduro will manipulate the elections  and c) even if Maduro loses  he will not concede victory to the opposition.   Here are a few “red team” arguments that contradict the confidence of the crowd consensus:   The US lifted some of the sanctions on the Venezuelan oil and gas sectors “in exchange” for guarantees of the fairness of elections. Such sanctions will immediately be reinstated in case of manipulated results   - Opinions online are that the opposition has “a real chance” of pushing Maduro out of power  and “the most open contest in more than a decade”   - UN and US observers have been invited to monitor the election process   - If the elections are free and fair  Maduro will likely lose   - If Maduro loses  he could negotiate an exit strategy with the opposition as he is facing charges from the ICC and the US. Brazil might be pressuring Maduro to step down. The main opponent already has plans to negotiate legal protections for Maduro   - The military is overseeing the elections. Traditionally  they have been loyal to Maduro but might become a deciding factor in guaranteeing that the will of the voters is respected   While it is most likely that Maduro will try to manipulate the result of the elections and might also refuse to peacefully transition power in case he loses  I believe the crowd consensus on this forecast is far too certain about a very complex situation.","consulted_urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election","https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/14/americas/venezuela-migrants-maduro-biden-intl-latam/index.html","https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/will-maduro-hold-power-venezuelas-2024-election","https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-venezuelas-2024-presidential-elections"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5d26c041c6466d3b5f8695897c9d3ddf3aa82658756cf41f3229d1ca0b56b872","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1399","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687524,"question_id":"1399","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-11","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":417,"file_id":1,"item_index":416,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1399","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.79,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1399","source":"infer","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.79,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Although polls are a joke in Venezuela  they are hugely worse for Maduro now than in the previous election. I am thus thinking that there is a decent chance that either 1) he wont be able to rig vote counts enough for a win or 2) there will be a turmoil in the country that results in him ceasing.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"4e71c5b4361710189101277fa50bea0047abcc3dc1881cc440d34b360ebaadb4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1399","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687524,"question_id":"1399","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-11","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":418,"file_id":1,"item_index":417,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1399","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.92,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1399","source":"infer","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.92,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Seems like its heading in this direction","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f36e453d50b8aaa75bc8e36dc754fbe4179f33930421e0dac6259d7886b116ce","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1399","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687524,"question_id":"1399","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-11","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":419,"file_id":1,"item_index":418,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1399","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.85,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1399","source":"infer","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.85,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The venezuelan street seems comfortable having him on  or at least to tired to replace him.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e6510198e94e8ed40e772c9e1829b8b5e48949971550ca830d212c8b3f1100a5","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1399","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687524,"question_id":"1399","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-11","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":420,"file_id":1,"item_index":419,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1399","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.97,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1399","source":"infer","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.97,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c9aed838df8d2b290ea39e45d4b97a401d5a66961e1a7780c41396592d069e0f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1399","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687524,"question_id":"1399","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-11","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":421,"file_id":1,"item_index":420,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1399","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.95,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1399","source":"infer","user_id":"SE9oSfk4nV","forecast":0.95,"searches":["Elections are scheduled to be held on 7/28/2024 but any other outcome than Maduro declared winner is unlikely. Main opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado was banned from running up  as well as her replacemant Corina Yoris was unable to register.  Looks like opposition had much bigger international support in 2018 and Maduro managed to stay in power. I expect that people will be dissilusioned with possibility of change.","There are also other possibilities like death from natural causes but he seems to be in good shape or coup but probability of those is small."],"direction":null,"reasoning":"I think he will win or manipulate results as with previous elections . I think last time oposition was better organized and had more international support.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a5cc6bb865e85835e4fdad964d8e0f1f733b3befce9a359431f7266c50ab6b49","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SE9oSfk4nV","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1399","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687524,"question_id":"1399","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-11","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":422,"file_id":1,"item_index":421,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1399","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.78,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1399","source":"infer","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.78,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Adjusting upwards after reading forecasts and comments from others","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ae342d127466041954eeaa2660f532563b99b6ac8e59882d222b8cdc799f2100","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1399","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687524,"question_id":"1399","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-11","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":423,"file_id":1,"item_index":422,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1399","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.9,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1399","source":"infer","user_id":"S5CrWZaPfh","forecast":0.9,"searches":["chances of fair election in venezuela 2024"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"See this as coming down to the freeness/fairness of the election and voter turnout. Polls have him trailing  but weve seen in Venezuela that control of the institutions - critically the judiciary  congress  police  and military - often translate to victory (Chavez  Maduro) and subvert the vote.   I think the chances of his leaving office  or death due to either natural or unnatural causes are pretty low.   Going to start on the higher side with an outlook of moving up  but I want to leave room to get more up to speed on the current dynamics of governmental institutions.","consulted_urls":["https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/will-maduro-hold-power-venezuelas-2024-election","https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-venezuelas-2024-presidential-elections"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e0ebae45364617d80e5bf69d017a09023f66164c656dab999a606aa4e00156ec","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S5CrWZaPfh","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1399","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687524,"question_id":"1399","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-11","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":428,"file_id":1,"item_index":427,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1353","source":"infer","user_id":"S3bbH6xnAb","forecast":0.05,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Agree with fellow forecasters. It’s the US election that will determine the rate. Won’t happen in the lame duck session.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9204b5ecf0fac56d27a3cc49ff31a1b09e07c9813b9302df73f8b61c1a38477f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3bbH6xnAb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1353","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687518,"question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":429,"file_id":1,"item_index":428,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.16,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1353","source":"infer","user_id":"SnBEoonCrb","forecast":0.16,"searches":["peace talks gaza"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Going down once again after realizing that Netanyahus continuity in power large depends on the existence of a conflict or an incontrovertible victory over Hamas.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e730fbc1ebe3af15764a5615407e66478d1e6bd90d577bffa627fb9f3fa4e237","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnBEoonCrb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1353","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687518,"question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":430,"file_id":1,"item_index":429,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.63,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1353","source":"infer","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.63,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"It has to eventually happen because it seems like the only way to free most hostages. However  for now the eradicate Hamas posturing is stronger and the time left is not that long.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"87a1bf214ac40d5bbba009dd81744e73a7836ad6244aa3a9f24a8dfc9c31f745","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1353","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687518,"question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":431,"file_id":1,"item_index":430,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.06,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1353","source":"infer","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.06,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Very low chance.   Thereve been so many stops/starts on a possible pause/ceasefire. Its not in EITHER sides interest  so as much as the two sides appear to be coming together  theyre actually not.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7007ad93ecb65261da585e7d15c20f534183684d8fa80c897634b77b88848d6d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1353","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687518,"question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":432,"file_id":1,"item_index":431,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.7,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1353","source":"infer","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.7,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"It has to happen for hostage release and regional stability  and must not interfere with US elections. Much noise however.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"cc34c577f2cfcb42001934f421b57fcff32b5b1522f07d7596c0f5593c0badfd","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1353","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687518,"question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":433,"file_id":1,"item_index":432,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.5,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1353","source":"infer","user_id":"S7aWY2TYGI","forecast":0.5,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"On 2nd thought","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b7c6cb3bd499b4ef0446dc93741adb7bf9fcdc796581e4b4549298e6b3967435","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S7aWY2TYGI","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1353","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687518,"question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":434,"file_id":1,"item_index":433,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.5,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1353","source":"infer","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.5,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"4 1/2 months left for what would be a relatively low bar  if it wasn´t in Bibis and Hamas´ interest to keep this rolling (as shown by a base rate of 9 1/2 months of war going on in spite of massive international pressure onto both sides). Recent news sounded better  so I´m daring to give this 50:50 for now.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"939632096279fdc156ab5925f0e857ee5058fcae7e292df39795392edad00a09","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1353","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687518,"question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":435,"file_id":1,"item_index":434,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.06,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1353","source":"infer","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":0.06,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Netanyahu is hoping that Trump wins and removes the pressure for a ceasefire.   No agreement will be made immediately before the US election.   The outcome of the US election has the potential to disrupt any in-place-at-the-time ceasefire.   A ceasefire after the US election will not qualify as there will be less than 30 days.   No ceasefire seems likely to start in the next 2.5 months.   Netanyahu does not want a ceasefire.   Unlikely any of the other has the will or the power (or even the desire) to force a decision.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"209847d7de051f623a93c3f9e45ebcbf16a3edbc550a933aab1c9913dae55faf","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1353","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687518,"question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":436,"file_id":1,"item_index":435,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.6,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1353","source":"infer","user_id":"S2s1t6Uzpa","forecast":0.6,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e88441e5354bdeeb3e2fec4c0b332678e9641f38b17e3c32bd2cc45bef38a157","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2s1t6Uzpa","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1353","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687518,"question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":437,"file_id":1,"item_index":436,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.55,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1353","source":"infer","user_id":"SsEu23bmu9","forecast":0.55,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The US says the framework of a ceasefire has been agreed to. That framework includes a six-week ceasefire as the first stage during which there are hostage/prisoner exchanges  as well as further negotiations about later stages.   But  one or both parties are not ready to accept the proposal as it is. My read is that Hamas wants more certainty that  if they agree to the proposal  Israel will actually be willing to discuss a permanent end to the war. The Israeli government has been pretty clear that their primary goal is to finish off Hamas; it would work out pretty well for them if the hostages were returned and then further negotiations fell apart.   While I am negative on a total end to the war  this question leaves ~four months for an agreement  and then a buffer of about two weeks between resolution of 30 days and the anticipated end of the first stage.","consulted_urls":["https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-ceasefire-close-goal-line-blinken-say-2024-07-19/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-phase_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war_ceasefire_proposal"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ff2da4ed0eef82d92115ccb19c7d2133385509386843c0a636542bc67cf35a03","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsEu23bmu9","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1353","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687518,"question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":438,"file_id":1,"item_index":437,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.12,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1353","source":"infer","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.12,"searches":["Hamas Israel negotiations"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Latest round of negotiations looks more promising than the previous ones. However  its still not clear how to square all the different ambitions. By now  Hamas might be more willing to have a ceasefire without too many preconditions  but the continued existence of the current Israeli government is also at stake. So far  Netanyahu has made sure that no settlement can be reached and he will probably do that again.   Even if there is a settlement  unlikely that it will hold for 30 days.","consulted_urls":["https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-talks-halted-until-israel-shows-its-serious-about-negotiations-say-egyptian-2024-07-13/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3e0c5cc4f4f7c8a9b581306f7393df7fff3191f9a0a54a7fac5093443e6ca59f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1353","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687518,"question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":439,"file_id":1,"item_index":438,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1353","source":"infer","user_id":"SOca8sKBtd","forecast":0.05,"searches":["Hamas Israel cease fire negotiations"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Agree that a cease fire before the election seems unlikely.  If Trump wins  Netanyahu has no pressure.  If the dem candidate wins  then Netanyahu will have to seriously consider.","consulted_urls":["https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-gaza-hamas-war-cease-fire-talks-us-breakthrough-rcna160368","https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/06/middleeast/hamas-ceasefire-deal-compromise-official-says-intl/index.html"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"63aa2f7a3cc37e441817a0d196c997f3a0cf4eebdb2c17538fc8b81dbd0b43d1","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SOca8sKBtd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1353","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687518,"question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":440,"file_id":1,"item_index":439,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.0123456789,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1353","source":"infer","user_id":"S488gnM8HQ","forecast":0.0123456789,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"practically zero-ing given the Israeli bombing of Yemen.  Israel/the IDF do themselves no favors by ratcheting up the escalation ladder.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6ec051be5d70e84b2951f74262009eb07511512676e2b400fc057633b407cdca","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S488gnM8HQ","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1353","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687518,"question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":441,"file_id":1,"item_index":440,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.55,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1353","source":"infer","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.55,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"We are not quite there yet. but  I think it is possible.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"393caa64708f76c6a9bf70ba55fb8e247309dda20999f105a83cd6a1f855614f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1353","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687518,"question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":442,"file_id":1,"item_index":441,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.16,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1353","source":"infer","user_id":"SgF5s3i4bt","forecast":0.16,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Four months left in question  of which 30 continous days must be a pause. While I think there is around 30% ceasefire odds  as it is in the hands of  Bibi and he needs the war for political survival  I think also the odds it will hold are around half that.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"1f8bd39b002a431d1880065934575bd9e3c52cf3704483b75208ea7d47b15a8e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SgF5s3i4bt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1353","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687518,"question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":443,"file_id":1,"item_index":442,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.31,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1353","source":"infer","user_id":"SCyupbOzJd","forecast":0.31,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":null,"consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"1e0a54772bee98a55ad1114f2e364165e833b6842cb705e12afdf7e253cf0244","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SCyupbOzJd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1353","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687518,"question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":444,"file_id":1,"item_index":443,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1353","source":"infer","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.25,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"People are quoting the election but who is going to start pushing for it who hasnt been pushing for it all this time?","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"19564f2bd284b1453cfb7e2822542a777f0e95edec237b25721bb2755d66109f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1353","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687518,"question_id":"1353","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":445,"file_id":1,"item_index":444,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.04,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.04,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Iran ramped up its Uranium enrichment activities in response to the E3 bloc (France  Germany  and the UK) delivering a censure motion at the latest IAEA Board of Governors meeting.   Iran will likely avoid hitting the 90% enrichment level as it would almost automatically result in a reimposition of harsh sanctions. Still  there is uncertainty about how the Western countries will answer the latest provocations.   The fast acceleration of the Uranium enrichment activities at different locations implies an increased likelihood that inspectors randomly detect trace amounts of Uranium enriched up to 90% which exist because of fluctuations in the enrichment process and not because of a deliberate effort to obtain them. Sure  inspectors have limited access to such sites  and Iran has a lot at stake if it is discovered that it possesses weapon-grade Uranium  but still this has to be factored in.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"41e88df50d36548b3616bec76573ee5360ae76a28b3d718f710fdf097b230e26","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":446,"file_id":1,"item_index":445,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"S3bbH6xnAb","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Politically has the potential to start a regional war as the retaliation wont’ be sanctions but bombs.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f718b7299400356f61a49d60123d1452009ae35bf7588f5eb54449c5d754149d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3bbH6xnAb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":447,"file_id":1,"item_index":446,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"SnBEoonCrb","forecast":0.03,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Besides the evident difficulties to prove such a claim due to Irans ban on international inspectors  the consequences of discovering uranium enriched to 90% or more could be  very harmful to both the Iranian government and would rise the tensions in the Middle East.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e25d2e9f03ea46c4df8c605f4d73168953c10416ab5fcf394026bec7b026e3d6","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnBEoonCrb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":448,"file_id":1,"item_index":447,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Iranians are not stupid.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"75719e35124efb597f63ff9b68da263a8c54638bf0c7f6fa66589b25196d1585","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":449,"file_id":1,"item_index":448,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.016,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.016,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"In the short time frame  seems highly unlikely for this to resolve positively.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"351714cfd27c9b2c25a0f150508965024320d51654952a4c8054582b2fc8e6d5","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":450,"file_id":1,"item_index":449,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.07,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"SPxBFWGyEb","forecast":0.07,"searches":["Iran 90 enrichment"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Since the February 2023 discovery of particles containing up to 83.7% enriched uranium  I imagine that Iran has taken steps to reduce the likelihood of similar discoveries  and none of the IAEA reports since then have contained any spectacular revelations. There are now only two meetings in September and one meeting in November  suggesting that only two or three more reports will be published by 31 December 2024. The election of a reformist President also reduces the likelihood that Iran will take any risks or do anything drastic.","consulted_urls":["https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/iran/iaea-and-iran-iaea-board-reports","https://apnews.com/article/iaea-iran-nuclear-enrichment-stockpile-2190f0d7247a6160fb13f28304d4b6ad","https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-nuclear-watchdogs-long-list-difficulties-iran-2024-05-06/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9eb0124f17a3dd39046633d03e5ba22fdad542c53ce5e97257669e7dd1235718","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPxBFWGyEb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":451,"file_id":1,"item_index":450,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Who will discover it if discovering is disallowed?","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9a41548d246c80756cde5899c19cb1de2cf5ed4e617bb4c9bbc65a08cfbf4d35","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":452,"file_id":1,"item_index":451,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"S7aWY2TYGI","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Unlikely given lack of real access and Iranian efforts to stage manage what access is given.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a57116c2dc6ef4f34857dd5b451a775ef8007aaa3014d5722df2a3a690345f43","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S7aWY2TYGI","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":453,"file_id":1,"item_index":452,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"09d43ccc5d7965a1ff7c23431e009cc98f3dba7a3aa44b7326d6b5881a24d5b9","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":454,"file_id":1,"item_index":453,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.015,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"SXXYp0Pfba","forecast":0.015,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I am lowering from my forecast on Infer due to the new President even though the power still lies with Khamenei. The vote was a sign that the people want some degree of moderation. Khamenei allowed Massoud Pezeshkian to run and appeared to want to tone down the pressure inside the country.  https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-irans-khamenei-elevated-little-known-moderate-presidency-2024-07-18/","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ee5fdfa957c35f054fbeec6a36a40b9e0aa8bdc068529b2620ee2e20984c70f5","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SXXYp0Pfba","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":455,"file_id":1,"item_index":454,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"SqSCtDbxAl","forecast":0.05,"searches":["Iran uranium enrichment"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Moving back down to original forecast.   I think Iran will enrich to 90%  but we wont be able to detect it.   FTA:The absence of monitoring and surveillance equipment  particularly since June 2022  has caused the IAEA to doubt its ability to ascertain whether Iran has diverted or may divert advanced centrifuges. A risk is that Iran could accumulate a secret stock of advanced centrifuges  deployable in the future at a clandestine enrichment plant or during a breakout at declared sites. Another risk is that Iran will establish additional centrifuge manufacturing sites unknown to the IAEA. Iran has proven its ability to secretly move manufacturing equipment to new  undeclared sites  further complicating any future verification effort and contributing to uncertainty about where Iran manufactures centrifuges.   https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/analysis-of-iaea-iran-verification-and-monitoring-report-may-2024/","consulted_urls":["https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/06/19/iran-nuclear-enrichment-fordow/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"fac207ea93986ddef2726728605af8a6c27c9d802ce47f5cc2c4691a91b94c0e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SqSCtDbxAl","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":456,"file_id":1,"item_index":455,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I think that Iran will only take that step if it has decided to make a run for the bomb. The recent attack-counterattack between Iran and Israel demonstrated that Iran is by far the weaker power. If Trump wins  they might  but it might take longer than 2 months to get there (I see articles saying that it will take days or weeks  but I am not sure that the leadership is ready to give the order right away).","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"391f9ae48dba92fb6379c454279792975c7c124d0334421b9b4d78fb72d53dfd","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":457,"file_id":1,"item_index":456,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"SnOyJtNds8","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Agreed with low prob folks.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f87e842bc3a964a09cfe00f34f8c165c75594173a27739c3c136649ebbbb2f88","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnOyJtNds8","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":458,"file_id":1,"item_index":457,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"update","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a1e9ac9c0422685c6c69e5f676ae266e59896aa2d2a942d1c7519f9d234c7ebc","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":459,"file_id":1,"item_index":458,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Updating wonky forecast - platform seems to be having some difficulty registering what Im actually predicting (1%).","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"dcba8a26e0eb5cf05df59c8bee90e5cfcede025532a875adc6b4ec109cc63471","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":460,"file_id":1,"item_index":459,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.04,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"SE9oSfk4nV","forecast":0.04,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"While Iran has ability to enrich above 90% I do not think will want to signal this ability to the world. I believe Iran will try to hide or stop short of reaching it to avoid giving Israel excuse to target nuclear facilities. While Israel may target facilities anyway Announcment by IAEA could be used as legitimation to do so by Israel allies.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ebb486cd28094635a89ef7f30e56b7fe241cb75994dda8ab85fe425f490351fe","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SE9oSfk4nV","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":461,"file_id":1,"item_index":460,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"Sg4x84spDg","forecast":0.1,"searches":["new iranian president nuclear; iran iaea monitoring  "],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Updating to 5% based on comments below","consulted_urls":["https://ecfr.eu/article/managed-reform-what-irans-new-president-means-for-european-diplomacy/","https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-nuclear-watchdogs-long-list-difficulties-iran-2024-05-06/","https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-06/news/iaea-iran-discuss-safeguards"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"712d676bdbcbc94f1e15802669c004a9806f3a0f8ce28d6f701cf5a2097d3ed2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg4x84spDg","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":462,"file_id":1,"item_index":461,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"S488gnM8HQ","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Will not happen unless Iran decides to shoot for the moon (Hearts game reference) and definitively acquire nuclear weapons.   The most likely trigger for such scenario is if Iran perceives an imminent existential threat from Israel or the United States.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d77444e26126e68ce62e7a589c4a7b656335063a29441f2ea4f2bf3bab08306d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S488gnM8HQ","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":463,"file_id":1,"item_index":462,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"unlikely","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"21bd634e49a28c552f4ba168ec437f951d25725792871c5cb1e5ae7c0290d328","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":464,"file_id":1,"item_index":463,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1286","source":"infer","user_id":"SgF5s3i4bt","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Short deadline. Would probably be much higher in 2025.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"cc788a27357178a6b1c5a8a93ac0d4104dbd6154a38c02de12fe00603b7875f4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SgF5s3i4bt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1286","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687515,"question_id":"1286","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":465,"file_id":1,"item_index":464,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.8,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1374","source":"infer","user_id":"S3bbH6xnAb","forecast":0.8,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Base rates are scary.   https://www.cobalt.io/blog/cybersecurity-statistics-2024","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6c59a088ddc26057a1dded84c11eb7fc33103553af5c1a8477ca976242b4b836","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3bbH6xnAb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1374","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687522,"question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-02","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":466,"file_id":1,"item_index":465,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.55,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1374","source":"infer","user_id":"SZINl91huS","forecast":0.55,"searches":["cyber attacks on Iran","cyber attacks against Iran"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"The last major cyber attack that would resolve this question as YES  was December 23 when seventy percent of entire national Iranian fuel pumps taken out  Predatory Sparrow took responsibility.  (Israeli Hacktivist group.)   Since then there have been multiple cyber attacks on Iran  but none on critical infrastructure.   Given Irans backing of Hezbollah  and loose association with Hamas  one can surmise that Israel is  currently working on something major.  News of Irans inching towards becoming a nuclear power should have governments world-wide on edge  including the USA.   One might also consider the Israeli/Hamas peace negotiations.  Would an attack on Iran spoil that progress?  Would it automatically be blamed on Israel?   Would Iran push Hezbollah to make trouble on their southern border with Israel?  Are there any other disincentives for and Israeli group to proceed with a cyber attack?   What about the USA and the potential change up of Presidents?  Sanctions will probably be used to pressure Iran to drop their nuclear development  but any cyber attack by the USA would probably be post close date on this question.   All in all  I would give this a better than 50% chance - although it will probably need to come from another Hacktivist group  rather than a government program.","consulted_urls":["https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1374-will-iran-be-impacted-by-a-cyberattack-targeting-critical-infrastructure-between-27-february-2024-and-1-march-2025/crowd_forecast","https://www.cisa.gov/topics/cyber-threats-and-advisories/advanced-persistent-threats/iran","https://www.ipis.ir/en/subjectview/687242/cyber-threats-and-cyber-attacks-against-iran","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberwarfare_by_Iran#:~:text=December%202023%20seventy%20percent%20of intelligence%20vessels%20at%20Red%20Sea","https://www.iranintl.com/en/202405062965"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6a0ca3832a289ebedbb67c706d13b64e5d2b185ea537066f740b3060ccfb0f14","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SZINl91huS","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1374","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687522,"question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-02","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":467,"file_id":1,"item_index":466,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.75,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1374","source":"infer","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.75,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Lots of options  high[-ish] base rate on the background of increased tensions.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"452638c3d5795f35738df3444d01f2a569a792319c6cba06ec3e4709989aa415","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1374","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687522,"question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-02","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":468,"file_id":1,"item_index":467,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.646,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1374","source":"infer","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.646,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"28d3b95a96a13447be8501dd8cb677f139798859981c982d355150ef15274d52","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1374","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687522,"question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-02","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":469,"file_id":1,"item_index":468,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.72,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1374","source":"infer","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.72,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"It is easy to carry out and motive abound. Would be higher if reporting were not an issue  states are sensitive about this during war and elections.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f435a4d9768fac0c6d84abecb7aa7117ed249ff8d655701a50954c2b93bad9e3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1374","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687522,"question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-02","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":470,"file_id":1,"item_index":469,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.7,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1374","source":"infer","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.7,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"37aae6741d3c7ada41a229679be2b99e4e4f61e1b313cde4b4c0a45091370caa","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1374","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687522,"question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-02","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":471,"file_id":1,"item_index":470,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.75,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1374","source":"infer","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":0.75,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Going slightly high because Israel is certainly working toward it  the question does not require the impact to be massive  the range is qualifying targets is large  and the question does not restrict it to a particular attacker.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0f82518d0f299d95a890cd521ba3c6077f412df42ff0e0345b131c623cc68f4c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1374","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687522,"question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-02","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":472,"file_id":1,"item_index":471,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.72,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1374","source":"infer","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.72,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Iran has increased its cyberattacks after October 7  so I expect at least some sort of retaliation attack. And there are non-state actors  such as hacker group APT Iran. They claimed to have breached the cyber infrastructure of Irans Railway Company this spring.","consulted_urls":["https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/16/iran-israel-conflict-missile-attack-cyberattacks-warfare/","https://www.iranintl.com/en/202403246859"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f6d0ce9c7cc22563bf5b9957a95bae018733e1cb50b5ed6bb010e21a3aa322a5","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1374","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687522,"question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-02","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":473,"file_id":1,"item_index":472,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.55,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1374","source":"infer","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.55,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"There has been a suspected cyber attack on port facility in Iran (see link below). I would expect more to come.   However  the new moderate president could lead to reduction of tension.","consulted_urls":["https://www.iranintl.com/en/202407090701","https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/07/the-guardian-view-on-irans-moderate-president-modest-hopes-must-be-acted-upon"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"684c60aaf8ff449a220f8b674d6c0c836b2e457c7dd9203417de170b8a65b96f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1374","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687522,"question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-02","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":474,"file_id":1,"item_index":473,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.7,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1374","source":"infer","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0.7,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Very hard to figure out the baserate because the criteria are pretty fuzzy. Seems about 1 per year","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"2221acf3022eff6feda3274f776eed2c30dc0d0d0b580f7afcda88d1072fef8a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1374","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687522,"question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-02","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":475,"file_id":1,"item_index":474,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.68,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1374","source":"infer","user_id":"SCyupbOzJd","forecast":0.68,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":null,"consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9d6bbfdb809fefe5a8b3c021bfe824add116928c15bf377c371fb993c4fa40c8","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SCyupbOzJd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1374","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687522,"question_id":"1374","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-08-02","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":476,"file_id":1,"item_index":475,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1285","source":"infer","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The possibility of snapback sanctions has reentered the debate. Still  their reintroduction would not benefit any of the involved parties.   The October 2025 deadline defines a 15-month window during which the nuclear deal could be salvaged. Past that date  the E3 would sort of lose the weapon of threatening snapback sanctions against Iran.   Iran is now fast accelerating its nuclear program and Im not sure about how to best interpret such information.   On the one hand  even if uninterested in reaching a new deal  Iran could potentially behave until October 2025  escape snapback sanctions  and proceed from there as it pleases.   On the other hand  Iran might want to negotiate a better deal  and  relatively certain about the unlikelihood of snapback sanctions  is ramping up its nuclear capacity only to have more to offer at the negotiations table later. I perceive this second hypothesis as more likely.   Absent a nuclear deal at the dawn of October 2025  I would believe it pretty likely that at least a member of the E3 reimposes sanctions. This in turn might imply that the Western powers still perceive the reaching of a new deal as a strong possibility.   The fact that both the US and all of the E3 are facing important elections (and I deliberately include Germany here) does not play in favor of a renewed effort to secure a deal.   I would suspect that any serious attempt would take place starting in  January 2025. Until then  the Western powers will tread lightly  and Iran will keep pushing.   Im expecting that the most likely time for snapback sanctions would be in 2025 as it becomes clear that a new deal cannot be reached. In the meantime  Iran only needs to avoid breaching certain limits.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"fef7b2843c49e5abeaf874feeecdd96c87bc8fa479678231cc532b4ac4de90e5","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1285","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687514,"question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":477,"file_id":1,"item_index":476,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1285","source":"infer","user_id":"SnBEoonCrb","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The Biden administration has way more urgent issues than paying attention to an international agreement with little consequences.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b82e45ccc3567b2e8794bbb178e9d8639f87b0ed6af125eba30be6e72392af05","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnBEoonCrb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1285","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687514,"question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":478,"file_id":1,"item_index":477,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1285","source":"infer","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Nope  not in this time frame. Too much conflicting politics.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"23ede1cee3caab3d0710ae27406244b1bf8f3296eb3652fdfc3dca071b386222","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1285","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687514,"question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":479,"file_id":1,"item_index":478,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.006,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1285","source":"infer","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.006,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"There were some inklings that this could happen when things were popping between Israel/Iran -- BUT -- given that thats calmed down (for the moment)  seems unlikely that things would heat up again in the short time frame.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5ea40f7b480dcdba4891b65f50c7b5a839f61d03be5a2e52821a2f4758eea912","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1285","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687514,"question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":480,"file_id":1,"item_index":479,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1285","source":"infer","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Not in the US agenda in an election year with confusing regional tensions that have to be managed carefully  much less europeans with UA demands.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6d4f28810df8002e44168a8c8e728af19d70e47eba244392b87158cb0f996d99","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1285","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687514,"question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":481,"file_id":1,"item_index":480,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.005,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1285","source":"infer","user_id":"S7aWY2TYGI","forecast":0.005,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Highly unlikely for reasons others have noted  INFER meta-rationale makes sense","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"2f075cd65caed39f5c93befb425971d2dce8734464a5b4e9bac54f89bd11873a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S7aWY2TYGI","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1285","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687514,"question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":482,"file_id":1,"item_index":481,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1285","source":"infer","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Only 5 1/2 months left  base rate close to zero as described under More Info above and the US not counting in case they tried it. Slightly more moderate new president in Iran elected recently  plus  there´s already enough heat on the kettle in the Near/Middle East. No  this looks very unlikely to me. One symbolic percent should be enough.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ad2596d707fe9b7d5bf5275a2c11788aa2478094c272c437a78de0556cf427f3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1285","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687514,"question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":483,"file_id":1,"item_index":482,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1285","source":"infer","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"No one wants an escalation in that region (except possibly  a potential President Trump  who is not qualified to do it since he withdrew from JCPOA.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"81d95ab52fa6e9059aa943bbb353d995a0f8210999ea1a2ca4cfcc5d9212471f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1285","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687514,"question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":484,"file_id":1,"item_index":483,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1285","source":"infer","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"In the current geopolitical context  within the time horizon. 2025  another story.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"1fd151d0f9e6b36f0b6f946a595552604f4d3175292109186d8b97d51159ff2a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1285","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687514,"question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":485,"file_id":1,"item_index":484,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1285","source":"infer","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Agreeing with others that US is distracted with elections and Gaza/Israel  EU focused on Gaza/Israel and Ukraine.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"da3c8a33dad1ed6534da2a7d873741815798139c72e8bb4fc6ca66c49774b31c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1285","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687514,"question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":486,"file_id":1,"item_index":485,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1285","source":"infer","user_id":"SiIgce1WZv","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The crowd at infer-pub.com is at 98% for no. With a relatively short timeline  I was thinking no made more sense than yes  and am relying on the crowds logic/research/confidence.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f692f29f29e47661151733c1125972fb2c1a8b14c3bf64201f84df1f76c067c8","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SiIgce1WZv","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1285","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687514,"question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":488,"file_id":1,"item_index":487,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1285","source":"infer","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":0.01,"searches":["Iran nuclear"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"https://www.armscontrol.org/policy-white-papers/2024-07/constraining-irans-nuclear-potential-absence-jcpoa","consulted_urls":["https://www.armscontrol.org/policy-white-papers/2024-07/constraining-irans-nuclear-potential-absence-jcpoa"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"28fb86a3db578e7bb5e252e1ee5a107bdf9323cd231f3879cbe5ff28a33d26e1","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1285","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687514,"question_id":"1285","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":489,"file_id":1,"item_index":488,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1413","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1413","source":"infer","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.03,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Actuarial risk of death would be about 2%  but people in positions of power and wealth have access to many more resources that typically allow them to live longer than the average human being. Im leaving a 1% for natural causes of death.   The only other way in which Putin might lose power is if hes ousted in a coup. This also does not seem to be a likely scenario. More than 2 years have passed since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine  and yet there seems to be no significant internal dissent that could turn into a coup. For this scenario  Im leaving an additional 2%. The image of a bullet piercing Trumps ear last week is strong enough to remind us that it might take very little for things to change drastically","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0ca9b1e326fe5ed351b1a804551ea05ea41e4af301d16e7471b368ad6bda15b0","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1413","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687525,"question_id":"1413","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-07-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":491,"file_id":1,"item_index":490,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1413","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1413","source":"infer","user_id":"SnBEoonCrb","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Near-zero chances. Putin has renewed his popularity after the recent election. Sudden death seems to be the most likely cause for a positive outcome  as many diseases take at least a few months to develop.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a081577cc938b6adc860f0c8a99cc3fb66427377df73899066f9bb5575e83cfd","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnBEoonCrb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1413","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687525,"question_id":"1413","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-07-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":492,"file_id":1,"item_index":491,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1413","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1413","source":"infer","user_id":"SZINl91huS","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Chances are zero and none.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"fcdd62e3aa5796f4eaf9f6f8817f3ee60fd31e78c1f96870e0667d30e4f98079","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SZINl91huS","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1413","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687525,"question_id":"1413","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-07-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":500,"file_id":1,"item_index":499,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1413","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1413","source":"infer","user_id":"SqSCtDbxAl","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Less than .05   Men in power live longer than the rest of us. He appears healthy. Russia is at war  but appears very stable from all indications. The rebellion has been squashed. A year is not that long.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"65c31d1bedd2322c8ff5c760425484f7820d05bdf3116296b5a88d10011e94fb","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:53.747543+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SqSCtDbxAl","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1413","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687525,"question_id":"1413","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-07-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":507,"file_id":1,"item_index":506,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1413","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.005,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1413","source":"infer","user_id":"SE9oSfk4nV","forecast":0.005,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Looks like coup is much less likely or much less likely than people thought after invading Ukraine. He also looks to be in better health than is reported from time to time.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"8971871c9e298ec21ded0e26f8c1e4437455e0e19ddbf382d929738c1e288ea1","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SE9oSfk4nV","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1413","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687525,"question_id":"1413","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-07-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":509,"file_id":1,"item_index":508,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1413","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1413","source":"infer","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Adding my forecast to compensate for the two forecasts that seem to have inverted the question or know more about Putins position/health dan I do. I think hes in control and thats is very unlikely that he will be ousted in 2025.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"705a6d90de0c5c24df03b8ec3c430068ab5445746410bb2fc8303f260e0c7022","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1413","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687525,"question_id":"1413","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-07-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":516,"file_id":1,"item_index":515,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1342","source":"infer","user_id":"SnBEoonCrb","forecast":0,"searches":["houthi movement"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Rounding down to zero - the Houthi movement will continue to be supported as the conflict in Gaza develops.","consulted_urls":["https://www.reuters.com/article/world/yemen-s-houthis-give-parties-three-days-to-solve-crisis-idUSKBN0L51PB/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"8775a166b66af757687d33079bed21a32e256f598d2124554b63bc8f5cb33124","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnBEoonCrb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1342","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687517,"question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":518,"file_id":1,"item_index":517,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.004,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1342","source":"infer","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.004,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Not likely...","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"813c121d3b85efffa7e1dfdcd763fbbdced1007b34d0c05752f18e5be0e80ce6","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1342","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687517,"question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":520,"file_id":1,"item_index":519,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1342","source":"infer","user_id":"S7aWY2TYGI","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"6 months is a high bar","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"27a87c0607b07ab7ef48e6da847da61551022d723554244df180206ab870d021","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S7aWY2TYGI","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1342","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687517,"question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":521,"file_id":1,"item_index":520,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1342","source":"infer","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"27cd191d3b9e3e11d6b2f1455d42f60a41b61158e0382cbdec3e17f4a34fee38","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1342","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687517,"question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":522,"file_id":1,"item_index":521,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1342","source":"infer","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I am not 100% sure the RC is clear here  but compared to other questions  I am willing to take a shot at it based on the 6 month element.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"fe19329bffdaed4642ddcbebee9cfe3e28a6faf44d80ebbb677ee30fe6aad3c6","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1342","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687517,"question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":523,"file_id":1,"item_index":522,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.09,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1342","source":"infer","user_id":"SsEu23bmu9","forecast":0.09,"searches":["Yemen ceasefire 2024"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Revising. Structuring this as probability of a ceasefire  times probability that said ceasefire lasts six months (including extensions of a ceasefire originally scheduled for less than six months).   Second part seems pretty high. There doesnt seem to be much fighting between the Houthis and the recognized government now  so the chances of some incident violating the truce are low. I will go with 60% (there might be an initial two month ceasefire that doesnt get extended).   There was a ceasefire previously  and there were negotiations towards one but no significant news this year that I can find. Only five months remaining in the year. 15%.   15% * 60% = 9%.","consulted_urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_civil_war_(2014%E2%80%93present)","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_peace_process#2023","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/23/yemen-warring-parties-commit-to-ceasefire-un-led-peace-process-says-envoy","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/6/us-seeks-to-block-houthi-revenue-in-possible-threat-to-yemen-truce-report","https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/14/us-saudi-arabia-revive-peace-deal-with-houthis-yemen"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6714410f9e7d56892456cbf54e1ace91c86c4023f2b4e36cd787c1d41897cb65","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsEu23bmu9","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1342","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687517,"question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":524,"file_id":1,"item_index":523,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.001,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1342","source":"infer","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.001,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Big players in the Middle East (who are the only ones who could plausibly push for real ceasefire) are focused on Gaza/Israel.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"eea592e8af9804ae3fdf04335ac8250ffd1b2ec05f7ad139e0ff367bf0740f8f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1342","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687517,"question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":525,"file_id":1,"item_index":524,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1342","source":"infer","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Just type the number instead of sliding the bar","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7aec0731db93cbb1ec84e01a067290415bc3271365c8f47d80d480e62f9d2802","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1342","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687517,"question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":526,"file_id":1,"item_index":525,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1342","source":"infer","user_id":"SOca8sKBtd","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Too much associative tension in the region.  I think it will be longer than six months before the area sees another ceasefire.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7d427648c42e0cff72d5e2174dfc209590f87e0fefcd18c23c3615ffd51a6e0b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SOca8sKBtd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1342","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687517,"question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":527,"file_id":1,"item_index":526,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1342","source":"infer","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"not in the current climate (latest Israel attack...)","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"03c96cdd390acc4a4bbdddb7019ae4532be143101ca52d25f6ad3e9bb37b6f78","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1342","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687517,"question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":528,"file_id":1,"item_index":527,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.13,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1342","source":"infer","user_id":"SsuHJKpbpe","forecast":0.13,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Houthis are leveraging Gaza to win. Not interested right now","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"57c3849a67bf2c03c98643491bb6d074fedc208fb36fcf027b80b9077625ff1b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsuHJKpbpe","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1342","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687517,"question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":529,"file_id":1,"item_index":528,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1342","source":"infer","user_id":"SgF5s3i4bt","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"forgot to mark the odds","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a2cdc0ec9076fed52ddf8f3eb24ec109fdbba0fe1a09ef8f50c1c072ec4a03b2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SgF5s3i4bt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1342","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687517,"question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":530,"file_id":1,"item_index":529,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.0135,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1342","source":"infer","user_id":"SCyupbOzJd","forecast":0.0135,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"This is quite a tight window of time and there hasnt been any that I can recall from my own memory. The restrictor here is the 6-month success criterium  so Im putting down a low probability  especially since there is no news about any kind of progress on this front in an already busy world.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f45a7745f12ed9624c8ce5aa87eb072a79a0bb8a82cc8cb64dd65ad86c955473","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SCyupbOzJd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1342","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687517,"question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":531,"file_id":1,"item_index":530,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1342","source":"infer","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Going optimistic here  theres no real reason why this would happen as nobody seems to be in a position to force anything on anybody.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f811c7e2b4fe75a887e8c5f6ed4b4eb26594daf79ada8e4ab8144e0005f30dc0","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1342","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687517,"question_id":"1342","platform":"infer","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-01-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":532,"file_id":1,"item_index":531,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1385","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.15,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1385","source":"infer","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.15,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I believe the factor that has the largest impact on the outcome of this question is the degree of success that is achieved by O-RAN technologies.   The slower the rate at which O-RAN technologies are developed and deployed  the better it is for Huawei. At the same time  as soon as it becomes clear that O-RAN is mature and ready for widespread adoption  Huawei can easily leverage its existing structure to enter the market in a really competitive position.   Huawei already develops  manufactures  and deploys all of the RAN components. If it becomes a necessity  Huaweis infrastructure would still be able to make it an efficient one-stop-shop for RAN components  most likely still at a lower price than any US or European competitors.   Two additional factors to consider:   - Larger companies might start developing and deploying O-RAN technologies without ever cooperating with either the O-RAN alliance or any OTIC as they already have development and testing capabilities that surpass those of the OTICs. Huawei might do just this and develop O-RAN components without participating with the Alliance   - Participation in O-RAN activities might be covered by NDA and not disclosed to the public. Once again  Huawei would be most likely to go down this path.   It is also worth considering that the bar to be cleared for this question to be resolved positively is comparatively low.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3337abf5a3b60baf4140921b1df68ecebe3675320a80fa6c4ab1c5eed16c3023","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1385","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":533,"file_id":1,"item_index":532,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1385","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1385","source":"infer","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.25,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The threshold is low  time frame is long and it costs very little to Huawei","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3b673ccdd4fa484c2abb2c4462c0ae7636818add0e2aa74b0678e60722d46bb9","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1385","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":534,"file_id":1,"item_index":533,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1385","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.06,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1385","source":"infer","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.06,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"We would need to see a major shift for Huawei for this to come close to occurring in the timeframe given (a tall ask).","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"02221e0c2d6edb38fe10271349e4609803436281ba3940f11f152f2a3de75175","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1385","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":535,"file_id":1,"item_index":534,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1385","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.14,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1385","source":"infer","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.14,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The bar is low but Huawei has (until recently) no intention to hurry  and there is little to no barrier in implementation technologically. Motives for delay seem to rest on profits and politics  and these are unlikely to change fast  but a long time frame for this question and a changing market","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"78a7ed14d263c75b28922bfe8471e3a43bbe7e54f75c379b53d4c39c43e450e0","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1385","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":536,"file_id":1,"item_index":535,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1385","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.15,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1385","source":"infer","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.15,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3d02e9c3e3db9dd6ff5fddea931dee25551c8b36852b5c92d6a301f60a683ab2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1385","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":537,"file_id":1,"item_index":536,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1385","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.22,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1385","source":"infer","user_id":"SXXYp0Pfba","forecast":0.22,"searches":["O RAN Huawei (news)"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"I looked at 6 forecasters whom I have high trust in and have excellent records and their forecasts range from 13 to 27%. The Infer average was 9% but I have greater trust in the forecast of the people whom I selected. The rationale that the US and Europe have restrictions on China will increase the difficulty of adoption.  A Trump/Vance victory could further decrease the odds considering that Vance is virulently anti-CCP government. The election is currently in a tumultuous state until we see Biden step down and get through the Democratic convention  likely with a new candidate and VP nominee.  I read the Light Reading but it is from 2021. Ancient for a question like this  though some information is lasting  such as Huawei likely having access to O Ran through other Chinese companies.   According to that executive  the main catalyst for Huawei’s rumoured change of heart is the major RAN request for quotation (RFQ) process that is underway at Vodafone Group – it covers all of the operator’s 170 000 mobile sites and has Open RAN at the heart of its technical requirements.   Huawei is not likely to proclaim its support for Open RAN until the specifications are integrated into formal industry standards  something that is years away from happening.  -Feb. 2024  more timely https://www.telecomtv.com/content/open-ran/huawei-denies-open-ran-support-speculation-49795/   A Google search revealed light reading from 3 days ago (better than 2021). Resisting the more comprehensive bans ordered in other countries  Germanys government will allow Huawei permanent residency in the radio access network (RAN) – provided someone else stumps up the network management software. After living with it for about five years  authorities last week decided Huaweis code poses too big a security risk and must eventually go. Networks and their management software have always come as a package  joined by the umbilical cord of a proprietary interface. Snipping it so that another player can update and control Huaweis RAN is not impossible  but Huawei would have to open its technology to that party  something it has not previously done. The Chinese company  however  would prefer this to the full rip and replace job taking place in countries like the UK  where Huaweis revenues have collapsed as its presence has shrunk. - This last article made me raise from 11 to 22% due to recency and compelling business reason.","consulted_urls":["https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/huawei-gives-another-thumbs-down-to-open-ran-or-so-it-says","https://www.telecomtv.com/content/open-ran/huawei-denies-open-ran-support-speculation-49795/","https://www.lightreading.com/5g/huawei-expected-to-take-open-ran-step-to-stay-in-germany"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"72af223f880dcaebdf42ec11b5cf324be74cab48b5d050c442ef7dbd7975c00d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SXXYp0Pfba","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1385","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":538,"file_id":1,"item_index":537,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1385","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.08,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1385","source":"infer","user_id":"SUpgMvejGk","forecast":0.08,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"March 2024:   The US is orchestrating a campaign at home and abroad to persuade the world to drop RAN in favor of O-RAN. The move would pull the throne from under Huawei  finally ending the companys reign as the worlds biggest telecoms equipment vendor.   The Washington Post wrote that US President Biden has appealed to the leaders of India  the Philippines  and Saudi Arabia to adopt O-RAN. The campaign is part of a push to persuade countries to say yes to Open RAN and no to Huawei.   If the battle lines are US and Open-RAN against Huawei and RAN  China and Huawei are not likely to soon embrace O_RAN  unless other Chinese companies join and HUawei has to follow.   Resolution criteria are fairly easy: testing or developing equipment by 2025.","consulted_urls":["https://finance.yahoo.com/news/o-ran-alliance-announces-chair-115900571.html","https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20240315VL204/huawei-open-ran-china-east-asia-mobile+telecom-mobile-components-mobile-devices-telecom-service-infrastructure-wireless-networking.html"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"52677bd6fce0d26bc5fe8257e54cc0f9daa5aad152f6eeb6ec21f6af82acc7d3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SUpgMvejGk","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1385","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":539,"file_id":1,"item_index":538,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1385","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.15,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1385","source":"infer","user_id":"S2s1t6Uzpa","forecast":0.15,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"417bded3ed6f82faf802c9b984e8de264ae0d3c041e54f1da5863aa75d7765cb","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2s1t6Uzpa","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1385","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":540,"file_id":1,"item_index":539,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1385","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1385","source":"infer","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.25,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"https://www.lightreading.com/5g/huawei-expected-to-take-open-ran-step-to-stay-in-germany   Huawei may have to collaborate with O-RAN to keep the business.   going a bit higher.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a0705ffb5887f39698309201c6d87b3ce2b5b5dcb2b049c9119f02dc19398097","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1385","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":541,"file_id":1,"item_index":540,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"1385","platform":"infer","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.135,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"1385","source":"infer","user_id":"SCyupbOzJd","forecast":0.135,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"My main concern here is Huaweis potential power to smother the other companies if it is included in O-RAN  but at the same time to balance the idea of including it in order to create a more harmonious network. Also  my sense is that the Republican spirit in America is gaining momentum  which will strengthen the status quo of strengthening and building O-RAN but without the security risks of Huawei.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6f7faf9b15b547a871acf2b60a131d56142fb22a47acd7a50661683d9079171f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SCyupbOzJd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:1385","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":542,"file_id":1,"item_index":541,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.75,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.75,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"This is the same forecast as for the question that asks about how the global temperatures in 2024 will compare to those in 2023.   In that instance  my initial forecast was 67% as per the NCEI prediction that there is almost a 60% chance that 2024 will rank as the warmest year on record and a 100% chance that it will rank in the top five. “   Other scientists are convinced that the probability might be as high as 95% which I believe is overconfident given the fact that their temperatures are already regressing toward lower values  and there is no certainty about whether La Nina oscillation will be observed in H2 2024.   Im also factoring in the current consensus of the crowd","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"978a7f5d598d132ee12111b772451eaf2d25ed3b1b90227ccb36e7b9b8c9c5c8","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688094,"question_id":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-03-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":556,"file_id":1,"item_index":555,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.93,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0.93,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"every one of the first six months was hotter than the 2023 counterpart. There is the issue of la nina cooling things down relative to 2023  but thats uncertain and I dont think the magnitude would be enough.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7628342ecff80075c8ac0c26a1126a0346c66e7377e377934c955be2c873b874","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688094,"question_id":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-03-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":557,"file_id":1,"item_index":556,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.93,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SgF5s3i4bt","forecast":0.93,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Polymarket odds seem slightly too low. First half was hot  hotter than previous record-holder 2023.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6f2d6dd4cb146c7208ed3e286b2c4e9a572e9f61c05ec8f6766f271406129007","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SgF5s3i4bt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688094,"question_id":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-03-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":558,"file_id":1,"item_index":557,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.75,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S3X40UQlAj","forecast":0.75,"searches":["average global temperature 2024"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"2023 was already very warm  but it looks like 2024 is on track to beat it. The reduction in sulfur emissions from ships keeps increasing sea temperatures (see graph in attached link). On the other hand  there can still be quite a few surprises  so it is not a done deal.","consulted_urls":["https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-june-2024"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0a7042a486b8007c2424edf34d80a5620e3c711f69b48b25acf135e6d75471f7","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3X40UQlAj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688094,"question_id":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-03-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":559,"file_id":1,"item_index":558,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.25,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"3 tropical storms have already occurred which is on par with historical averages. 13.8 happen on average between halfway through July and the end of the season. The base rate chance  using such historical averages  that the number of storms falls between 16 and 20 is roughly 30%.   Meteorological agencies  though  predict a very active hurricane season with a high number of named storms (22 according to UKMO  21 according to NOAA  26 according to TSR  25 according to CSU  and 23 according to UA). Averaging these forecasts and using the NOAA 70% confidence interval of 17-25 yields a forecast of about 25%","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5489311ff7131675be97343e31d3cd57ced9e350ada1c7939ccd0512626b450b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688102,"question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":560,"file_id":1,"item_index":559,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SZINl91huS","forecast":0.1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7312e155a66f7a4d570563defbcc2b3a1f6b382e74457b7c7f852e40a47f237c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SZINl91huS","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688102,"question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":561,"file_id":1,"item_index":560,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.45,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.45,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The base rate for 21st century is ~33%  with most of the remaining 67% being under 16. This year the El Nino is gone and La Nina is forecasted by late summer. The big picture is that there are more hurricanes during La Nina: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/impacts-el-nino-and-la-nina-hurricane-season   So it feels somewhere close to 50%  maybe a little less to accounted for probability to exceed 20.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ee5b3aeb7aa3c5e9e77357fae3080827c4542bf7e6c7dabf5f988761eb005a19","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688102,"question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":562,"file_id":1,"item_index":561,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.45,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.45,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"With la Nina and climate warming there is a strong possibility of surpassing 20.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"896dcb791a894fb9fab8d911f606aa501cf0a63268c94befe5d06b335f9346e7","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688102,"question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":563,"file_id":1,"item_index":562,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.33,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S7aWY2TYGI","forecast":0.33,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"1. Were currently at 2--Alberto and Beryl <br>   2. In May  NOAA forecast an above average 17-25: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-names-list-2024-season/ FTA: The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors  including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean  development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific  reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear  all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation. <br>   3. There are no storms brewing at present in the Atlantic: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/tropical  FTA: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. <br>   4. This form gives the number of named storms per year starting in 2022 and going back decades. Its a little confusing because the column that lists Tropical storms is actually the # for all the named storms that year  I guess because thats the lowest threshold--all hurricanes start off as tropical storms: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/AtlanticStormTotalsTable.pdf <br>   5. A 10-year lookback (including 2023  which isnt listed on the form above but where the # was 20) reveals that 20% of the years would have resulted in a yes resolution  even though the average # of storms was 17 (rounded up). A 20-year lookback reveals that 40% of the years would have qualified  with again an average of 17 (rounded up). <br>   6. A note on the resolution criteria: although the question asks between 16 and 20 suggesting that it might not be inclusive of 16 and 20  the polymarket question details  which state that once it hits 21 it will close as a no  suggests the question is inclusive of 16 and 20 and thats how Im forecasting it. <br>   7. Despite the prediction for an above-average season  2 in the books by mid-July with a clear 7-day forecast seems to be close to the average  unless the end of July comes in strong: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File:1851-2017_Atlantic_hurricanes_and_tropical_storms_by_month.svg <br>   7. Given the base rate  I dont see much justification for the polymarket odds. 55% for over 25? When thats happened only 2x in the past 20 years? And only 7% for 16-20? I see that as an overreaction to news reports about global warming. <br>   8. Given the average start and base rate  Ill start with 33% for 16-20.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"631f0e5977eb4f00c0030c8374a228db8d28ddd25ea826e450bd595843bf4fb5","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S7aWY2TYGI","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688102,"question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":564,"file_id":1,"item_index":563,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.2,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.2,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Okay  on Polymarket they are currently at 7% for this (link 1)  but I´m not a gambler  and I don´t believe gamblers  so let´s go to the source (link 2). No data for 2024 available there yet (although the season started on 1 June)  so looking at recent years.   2023: 19  plus 1 unnamed  plus 2 ones with numbers (no clue  if they count  but assuming they do) - assuming it to be 21  that count   2022: 17  including 1 potential and two with numbers  assuming this to be 16 or 17 counting   2021: 21   2020: 31  including 1 depression   2019: 20  including 2 depressions   This looks like around 21 is normal  16-20 below average  but relatively close to it.   Giving this 20%  because this should follow some kind of standard deviation. Factoring in a little climate change on the upside that looks fair to me.","consulted_urls":["https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024/will-there-be-less-than-16-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season?tid=1720968645278","https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2019&basin=atl"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"49421c0c68eed887e9f43d050518ba48dc5253cd5a42229d6ac341290608220f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688102,"question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":565,"file_id":1,"item_index":564,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.36,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SXXYp0Pfba","forecast":0.36,"searches":["Atlantic hurricane season predictions 2024","2024 Atlantic named storms"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"We are moving quickly from an El Niño to La Niña in the Pacific basin. NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms   Climatologically  we are transitioning from the homegrown storms of June and early July to the more long-track storms that roll off Africa and take days to cross the Atlantic. Saharan dust also reaches its peak concentration  helping to gobble up prospective storms.   This year  there’s also a third thing  the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO  a phase that promotes Pacific development and fills the Atlantic side with sinking air to further deter storm development.   The MJO is a cluster of clouds and rain that moves across the globe every 30-60 days. It can enhance or suppress tropical activity  depending upon what part of the world its currently in.   Flipping the switch   The opposite will be true heading into August. We are  of course  heading into the climatological peak of hurricane season  which will naturally promote storm development. In addition  the MJO will move back into a more favorable position for tropical development.   Im starting at 36. The NOAA forecasts are for a range of 17-25 and we had an early start to the season  but the lull  MJO and time between El Niño and La Niña raise high uncertainty. I am not comfortable to go down to the 9% forecast of Polymarket. I expect it to be on the higher end of the NOAA estimation  but 36% is good for this category.   [redacted to maintain anonymity] Part of this includes that localised changes that each system brings in terms of cooling or warming different regions and bringing more or less rain or pressure  to different areas within even countries the size of Mexico. These are not simple systems  especially when adding the general shift towards warming ocean temperatures. My guess is that it will be a severe and long season  but my uncertainty leads to fat tails.","consulted_urls":["https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/","https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season","https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/2024/07/18/hurricane-season-taking-an-extended-break-heres-when-tropical-activity-could-ramp-back-up/","https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/","https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/2024/07/18/hurricane-season-taking-an-extended-break-heres-when-tropical-activity-could-ramp-back-up/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"48f4c0c451db65ca2d6667cc1d876e04791f5dfde420a4bf1b41da8c585f368f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SXXYp0Pfba","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688102,"question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":566,"file_id":1,"item_index":565,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.28,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SUpgMvejGk","forecast":0.28,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms. The range implies there is a 70% chance of  17-25  and 15% of more than 25. Based on NOAA should be about 30% chance of this question range. Maybe slightly less based on the ENSO oscillation and extreme heat so far this year.   They have a fairly poor record of forecasting the number of storms in late May. Its based on general ocean and atmospheric conditions  but the most important criteria is how wind shear develops in late August and September. The number of storms is quite variable  with an upward trend  but not a certainty that there are more storms every year.   2022 forecast 14 -20  17 actual   2023 forecast 12 -17  20 actual   Of course this year started with a bang with a very early Beryl  but 25 is the top end of the NOAA 70% confidence interval. There is a bias towards global warming and hurricanes are rapidly getting worse. The long-term trend is increasing but yearly variability is more of a factor.  Number of storms is not going to increase every year  and its not that predictable","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6410c9b1ef9217560f576cf6dc696cdf9c51f4cfac1f6a3a3c5920b245956e3f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SUpgMvejGk","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688102,"question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":567,"file_id":1,"item_index":566,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.43,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SqSCtDbxAl","forecast":0.43,"searches":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#:~:text=Atlantic%20hurricane%20season.- Background further%20attained%20major%20hurricane%20intensity."],"direction":null,"reasoning":"I found a site with named storms by year:   https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northatlantic   From 2009-2019 the number of named storms was never more than 19.   From 2020- 2023: 50% were over 20. And one year was under 16.   If I start from 2017- 2023: 3 out of 7 years fell between 16-20.   Pick your base rate.   Reducing my forecast to 43%","consulted_urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#:~:text=Atlantic%20hurricane%20season.- Background further%20attained%20major%20hurricane%20intensity.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season","https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/14/us-heat-wave-moves-east","https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"1dbdee2c85fe597e062082de1fc9fa690e37a4828cec3789463ce7bd6a843d3b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SqSCtDbxAl","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688102,"question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":568,"file_id":1,"item_index":567,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.33,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.33,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Updating a bit more to align other bins and sum to 100.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0b434677802ab5f3b36fa50aadfb3d1c4b5243ded0bf24b511470920f87a1322","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688102,"question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":569,"file_id":1,"item_index":568,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.28,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.28,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Increasing this category after reading comments  will lower the  25+ category. Seems we are in some kind of lull.","consulted_urls":["https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/super-charged-atlantic-hurricane-season-poised-for-intense-activity/1633944","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#:~:text=sometimes%20also%20considered.- Pre%2Dseason%20forecasts hurricanes%20and%204%20major%20hurricanes."],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b735f2240e67d48e4fdd4de25a907bb007636c63ea6c7c749aa3df4ebd0b0d13","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688102,"question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":570,"file_id":1,"item_index":569,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.13,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S2co9AhkoU","forecast":0.13,"searches":["None","all from seeing past history in last 1-2 months on this."],"direction":null,"reasoning":"I will be shocked if we dont hit 16-20. I personally assume it will move to Greek alphabets. Hopefully it doesnt.   But qn has a twist in that it wont resolve yes if it hits 21. lol and a huge curveball. Which makes it harder to predict","consulted_urls":["None","all from seeing past history in last 1-2 months on this."],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"383b416d14a9c214b718c87b8ecf9e1d9c888a17dd22084774676e0d14509133","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2co9AhkoU","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688102,"question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":571,"file_id":1,"item_index":570,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.2,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.2,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"379ca90dc1244aa1bd060c188ae8d38653bc163166279d8ee93c3477cca10d9a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688102,"question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":572,"file_id":1,"item_index":571,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.23,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SCyupbOzJd","forecast":0.23,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":null,"consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3952d4fab73ed690c79055e2b11abeccc02af67205e587b1f4f52453a119b332","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SCyupbOzJd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688102,"question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":573,"file_id":1,"item_index":572,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.17,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.17,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Polymarket is at 10% right now  going roughly for the midpoint of that and this group.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d95baa49bd98fd96ef9d41b633993923032200e86e08ff1811a86c7515d22020","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688102,"question_id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":574,"file_id":1,"item_index":573,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.26,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.26,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"With 3 tropical storms so far and an average of 13.75 storms in the period between halfway through July and the end of the season  the base rate forecast using a Poisson distribution is roughly 1.4%.   Empirically this happened twice (2020 and 2005) in the past 20 seasons (10%) implying that the Poisson distribution is not the most accurate model. Hurricane seasons seem to have sort of a fat tail.   Meteorological agencies predict a very active hurricane season with a high number of named storms (22 according to UKMO  21 according to NOAA  26 according to TSR  25 according to CSU  23 according to UA). Averaging these forecasts and using the NOAA 70% confidence interval of 17-25 outputs a 27% prediction using a Poisson distribution  and about 30% using a normal distribution.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ecc13159801fc8919c795f968ba6422b962764b13721020a9ebe62f3d7f8c21f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688095,"question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":575,"file_id":1,"item_index":574,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.6,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SZINl91huS","forecast":0.6,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"cc7e51a26c18d709cb7c448741d27f7aa519de4125d1d9950e57dc47ad80cd6d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SZINl91huS","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688095,"question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":576,"file_id":1,"item_index":575,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Over 25 is a lot. Only happened twice and this year is expected high but  given the start so far  not extraordinary high.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b89dd98965d3272814d7384d6250fa16694f37c561520c1c325d601b34746a24","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688095,"question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":577,"file_id":1,"item_index":576,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.6,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","source":"polymarket","user_id":"ScR8KykF8V","forecast":0.6,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Reverting slightly towards Kalshi/Polymarket odds","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"296e88c8d9d19291f8123e8446a7d79647dbb46c7ac55ad2fffa0dee53cd98c7","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:ScR8KykF8V","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688095,"question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":578,"file_id":1,"item_index":577,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.08,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.08,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Starting low as sand from the sahara seems to be keeping numbers low for now https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/forecasts/hot-dusty-air-is-keeping-atlantic-hurricane-season-quiet-for-now?_guid_iss_=1","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"35118839a1647b4dc4b434094117712b0574927f4f9e994d4671ad61fae33ff4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688095,"question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":579,"file_id":1,"item_index":578,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S7aWY2TYGI","forecast":0.03,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Base rate--only two years ever  since they started recording storms  that weve had over 25. Still  both of those years were in the past 20 years. So possible. That said  normal start to the year with only 2 so far  and no storms predicted to form for the next 7 days which gets up until the end of July: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b31576dce8f66c721badd2b4600bfaee0d4a34d8ce94460cf6a4abd7f3216b13","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S7aWY2TYGI","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688095,"question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":580,"file_id":1,"item_index":579,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.25,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Forgot to change the number  so here again: Same logic as with questions # 36  38 and 39 Okay  on Polymarket they are currently at 33% for this (link 1)  but I´m not a gambler  and I don´t believe gamblers  so let´s go to the source (link 2). No data for 2024 available there yet (although the season started on 1 June)  so looking at recent years. 2023: 19  plus 1 unnamed  plus 2 ones with numbers (no clue  if they count  but assuming they do) - assuming it to be 21  that count 2022: 17  including 1 potential and two with numbers  assuming this to be 16 or 17 counting 2021: 21 2020: 31  including 1 depression 2019: 20  including 2 depressions This looks like around 21 is normal  I´m at 5% for less than 16  at 20% for 16-20 named storms and 50% for 21-25. Giving this 25%  because that´s what´s left from 100%. This should follow some kind of standard deviation.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"126f7b1d05f4daab4a18b6f764842f39f3c735fa1995b1380d940a8d1555b4e4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688095,"question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":581,"file_id":1,"item_index":580,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.08,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SXXYp0Pfba","forecast":0.08,"searches":["Atlantic hurricane season predictions 2024","2024 Atlantic named storms"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"We are moving quickly from an El Niño to La Niña in the Pacific basin. NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms   Climatologically  we are transitioning from the homegrown storms of June and early July to the more long-track storms that roll off Africa and take days to cross the Atlantic. Saharan dust also reaches its peak concentration  helping to gobble up prospective storms.   This year  there’s also a third thing  the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO  a phase that promotes Pacific development and fills the Atlantic side with sinking air to further deter storm development.   The MJO is a cluster of clouds and rain that moves across the globe every 30-60 days. It can enhance or suppress tropical activity  depending upon what part of the world its currently in.   Flipping the switch   The opposite will be true heading into August. We are  of course  heading into the climatological peak of hurricane season  which will naturally promote storm development. In addition  the MJO will move back into a more favorable position for tropical development.   Im starting at 8. The NOAA forecasts are for a range of 17-25 and we had an early start to the season  but the lull  MJO and time between El Niño and La Niña raise high uncertainty. I am not comfortable to go up to the 46% forecast of Polymarket. It is far of of the NOAA estimate and as others have mentioned  there are only two previous years that have exceeded 25. [redacted to maintain anonymity] Part of this includes that localised changes that each system brings in terms of cooling or warming different regions and bringing more or less rain or pressure  to different areas within even countries the size of Mexico. These are not simple systems  especially when adding the general shift towards warming ocean temperatures. My guess is that it will be a severe and long season  but my uncertainty leads to fat tails. With global warming my default is to forecast higher than most estimates as it often turns out correct  but 21-25 captures the high end of the estimate  and the El Niño La Niña rapid shift may not moderate extreme temperatures. We are in the unknown without a clear base rate for this short of a transition combined with the already increased heat of the oceans.","consulted_urls":["https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/","https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season","https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/2024/07/18/hurricane-season-taking-an-extended-break-heres-when-tropical-activity-could-ramp-back-up/","https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/","https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/2024/07/18/hurricane-season-taking-an-extended-break-heres-when-tropical-activity-could-ramp-back-up/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"912657838e0c84b1e59f03810955f0439b35919605dd3593b4235b2ed0612074","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SXXYp0Pfba","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688095,"question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":582,"file_id":1,"item_index":581,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.16,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SUpgMvejGk","forecast":0.16,"searches":["NOAA atlantic named storms history","noaa predictions of named atlantic storms by year","noaa 2023 named storms"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms. That 70% confidence interval implies there is a 15% of more than 25.","consulted_urls":["https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3222dae802ace859c8fbd8e58c21c179a2bc2171af3d4f0d0e280071f0850aab","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SUpgMvejGk","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688095,"question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":583,"file_id":1,"item_index":582,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SSjRQHn8XG","forecast":0.1,"searches":["atlantic hurricane named storms history","atlantic hurricane 2024 forecast"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Only 25+ storms twice in the past  (2005 and 2020). Current NOAA forecast is for a busier than normal season at 17-25 storms. While giving deference to favorable weather conditions  La Nina  etc. more than 25 storms seems unlikely.","consulted_urls":["https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/articles/most-active-hurricane-seasons","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season","https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/i","https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e734ba6a2d56c96120ab4538a63f4942ad4bba36dc62ad7bc3dd9ba48b1fa7a2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SSjRQHn8XG","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688095,"question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":584,"file_id":1,"item_index":583,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.15,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.15,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Residual from other bins","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"187482432e11b4e81dd994bf8d0a12199e1ece9321186406d40db8ebe0198866","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688095,"question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":585,"file_id":1,"item_index":584,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.2,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.2,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Prediction on the Wikipedia page are on the high side  compared with the long-term average. Im going to distribute my % as follows:   <16 2%   16-20 8%   21-25 60%   >25 30%","consulted_urls":["https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/super-charged-atlantic-hurricane-season-poised-for-intense-activity/1633944","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#:~:text=sometimes%20also%20considered.- Pre%2Dseason%20forecasts hurricanes%20and%204%20major%20hurricanes."],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3d1589ff4c811601433e0b98140780fa942dbbc8383db5df84a241a91222ff14","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688095,"question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":586,"file_id":1,"item_index":585,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S5CrWZaPfh","forecast":0.01,"searches":["A. likelihood of 25 named storms in US in 2024","B. how many named storms comprise a normal hurricane season in us"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Quick first forecast.   NOAA  predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season  a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). [1]   On average  14 named storms occur each season. [2]   Im using NOAAs bins as my base rate and ascribing a 1% chance it will be above their 17-25 named storms threshold.   I would consider going to 0 on a <1% chance rationale.","consulted_urls":["[1] https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season#:~:text=NOAAs%20outlook%20for%20the%202024 of%2039%20mph%20or%20higher).","[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season#:~:text=On%20average%2C%2014%20named%20storms 30%20named%20tropical%20cyclones%20formed."],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0dba345ff282f9170a952f3d6effb38b6ca9d7fb36697d5443ddbb99d56a424f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S5CrWZaPfh","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688095,"question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":587,"file_id":1,"item_index":586,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.25,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f1dc55ebed3916510036b10e154cd7158c8dce63ca5f4aee55e056649594e389","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688095,"question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":588,"file_id":1,"item_index":587,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.25,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"*tweak","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"51556ab38a3f1374d0f832d6a0552fec9cb7fe64a0bf10f8d5812353ec94ceea","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688095,"question_id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":589,"file_id":1,"item_index":588,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.3,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.3,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"3 storms so far. 13.75 is the historical average between halfway through July and the end of the season. The base rate forecast using a Poisson distribution is about 14%. Empirically  this happened only once (2021) in the past 20 seasons.   Meteorological agencies predict a very active hurricane season with a high number of named storms (22 according to UKMO  21 according to NOAA  26 according to TSR  25 according to CSU  23 according to UA). Averaging these forecasts and using the NOAA 70% confidence interval of 17-25 outputs a 33% prediction using Poisson distribution.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"fb55b003c8253f4d7e1106ec1c67ad598e4565a4d8e13d1be4028b57025ec629","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688120,"question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":590,"file_id":1,"item_index":589,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.7,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SZINl91huS","forecast":0.7,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"In a perfect world yes  but this is a little hedge.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f0d7ca521d27ea45ab796847f5cf5fb9bfc95f31afe213a5cd0a42cc95a5e243","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SZINl91huS","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688120,"question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":591,"file_id":1,"item_index":590,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.32,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.32,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Since i am forecasting 45% for the 16-20 window  and a generally higher activity  this one ought to be the next high.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"dcedf91ce30c761d7a7db5760eb252756dcbac288d6bae2016c8482ee3e10b45","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688120,"question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":592,"file_id":1,"item_index":591,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.43,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SPxBFWGyEb","forecast":0.43,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Looking at the base rate  there were an average of 14.4 named storms per season from 1991-2020. A count of 21-25 named storms would therefore be significantly above the historical base rate. However  most of the forecasts suggest that the count will fall within this range (though forecasts havent always been that reliable). The fact that there have only been 3 so far isnt that significant as June and July tend to be quieter months.","consulted_urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season","https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0ccb67db44ffd7fe2b24170f1fbcfcfc5a10d55b73523df98281eaf0a6070772","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPxBFWGyEb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688120,"question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":593,"file_id":1,"item_index":592,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.34,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.34,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"adjusting 30>34","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3c0204d420df0569eaa6db1ef612f435ed674645b3ae024a8e9422b319ee7019","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688120,"question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":594,"file_id":1,"item_index":593,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.5,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.5,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Same logic as with questions No 39 and #36   Okay  on Polymarket they are currently at 33% for this (link 1)  but I´m not a gambler  and I don´t believe gamblers  so let´s go to the source (link 2). No data for 2024 available there yet (although the season started on 1 June)  so looking at recent years.   2023: 19  plus 1 unnamed  plus 2 ones with numbers (no clue  if they count  but assuming they do) - assuming it to be 21  that count   2022: 17  including 1 potential and two with numbers  assuming this to be 16 or 17 counting   2021: 21   2020: 31  including 1 depression   2019: 20  including 2 depressions   This looks like around 21 is normal  That´s about this bin. I´m at 5% for less than 16 and 20% for 16-20 named storms. Giving this 50%  because this should follow some kind of standard deviation. Factoring in a little climate change on the upside  that looks fair to me.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"afe7998c04bff4da4e6f5f0d9395fb9ab1c49c1a912f5f3f9f94bacd03521249","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688120,"question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":595,"file_id":1,"item_index":594,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.49,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SXXYp0Pfba","forecast":0.49,"searches":["Atlantic hurricane season predictions 2024","2024 Atlantic named storms"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"We are moving quickly from an El Niño to La Niña in the Pacific basin. NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms   Climatologically  we are transitioning from the homegrown storms of June and early July to the more long-track storms that roll off Africa and take days to cross the Atlantic. Saharan dust also reaches its peak concentration  helping to gobble up prospective storms.   This year  there’s also a third thing  the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO  a phase that promotes Pacific development and fills the Atlantic side with sinking air to further deter storm development.   The MJO is a cluster of clouds and rain that moves across the globe every 30-60 days. It can enhance or suppress tropical activity  depending upon what part of the world its currently in.   Flipping the switch   The opposite will be true heading into August. We are  of course  heading into the climatological peak of hurricane season  which will naturally promote storm development. In addition  the MJO will move back into a more favorable position for tropical development.   Im starting at 50. The NOAA forecasts are for a range of 17-25 and we had an early start to the season  but the lull  MJO and time between El Niño and La Niña raise high uncertainty. I am not comfortable to go down to the 33% forecast of Polymarket. I expect it to be on the higher end of the NOAA estimation  so 50% is good for this category.  [redacted to maintain anonymity] Part of this includes that localised changes that each system brings in terms of cooling or warming different regions and bringing more or less rain or pressure  to different areas within even countries the size of Mexico. These are not simple systems  especially when adding the general shift towards warming ocean temperatures. My guess is that it will be a severe and long season  but my uncertainty leads to fat tails. With global warming my default is to forecast higher than most estimates as it often turns out correct  but 21-25 captures the high end of the estimate  and the El Niño La Niña rapid shift may not moderate extreme temperatures. We are in the unknown without a clear base rate for this short of a transition combined with the already increased heat of the oceans.","consulted_urls":["https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/","https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season","https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/2024/07/18/hurricane-season-taking-an-extended-break-heres-when-tropical-activity-could-ramp-back-up/","https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/","https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/2024/07/18/hurricane-season-taking-an-extended-break-heres-when-tropical-activity-could-ramp-back-up/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d241e250c756005436fdc2e21e5d50b1f597f001b2d298dbee44622a1882f8f6","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SXXYp0Pfba","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688120,"question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":596,"file_id":1,"item_index":595,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.36,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SUpgMvejGk","forecast":0.36,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"you also have a 70% chance of 25+  these should be exclusive buckets","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"72ed3b54c86f5b3fa65e196ef8eec332de2d0f8a1efc1089720eddcdc459fc37","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SUpgMvejGk","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688120,"question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":597,"file_id":1,"item_index":596,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.4,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SqSCtDbxAl","forecast":0.4,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":null,"consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"167ff6c13f4aab042dffbd158c85a7f682dda18919bd0fdb275fb12640e8b0f4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SqSCtDbxAl","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688120,"question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":598,"file_id":1,"item_index":597,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.4,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.4,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Guesstimate based on how Im looking at other bins  where NOAA and other predictions are.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"85c73307514d1db072d3d6161a699bab8aa06ad9b88174af3ca21158f067e52d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688120,"question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":599,"file_id":1,"item_index":598,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.5,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.5,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Adjusting 60 -> 50","consulted_urls":["https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/super-charged-atlantic-hurricane-season-poised-for-intense-activity/1633944","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#:~:text=sometimes%20also%20considered.- Pre%2Dseason%20forecasts hurricanes%20and%204%20major%20hurricanes."],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"27c4b97c5cb253d587b5e34eaceda9769294f7e5c29e5f25075de5ae2cd6d026","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688120,"question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":600,"file_id":1,"item_index":599,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.42,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S2co9AhkoU","forecast":0.42,"searches":["None","all from seeing past history in last 1-2 months on this."],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Reasonable probability for this. Keeping it at around 40%","consulted_urls":["None","all from seeing past history in last 1-2 months on this."],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"418f29a76ad002de16dc80738f13070c046d86dece8b4be49444d8cffbf3ed09","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2co9AhkoU","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688120,"question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":601,"file_id":1,"item_index":600,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.5,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.5,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5a6e92b93ff45f4078524f463c63c68687340dbc6222e6b4049e153c3c746567","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688120,"question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":602,"file_id":1,"item_index":601,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.37,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.37,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Pulling the median in Polymarkets direction","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"84e64a44b2563050ccd37fcb7c7df7f8faa66419a2fd3a11162cf1bde8bfa1f3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688120,"question_id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":603,"file_id":1,"item_index":602,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.04,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.04,"searches":["atlantic hurricane season 2024"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Historical data from between 2004 and 2023 suggests that 16.7 storms are named each season on average.   3 named storms took place halfway through July  this number is slightly below average. 13.8 more storms typically develop between the second half of July and the end of the hurricane season placing the expected total at 16.7. Forecasting using a Poisson distribution outputs a 38% base rate chance that there will be 15 named storms or less in 2024.   Meteorological agencies predict a very active hurricane season with a high number of named storms (22 according to UKMO  21 according to NOAA  26 according to TSR  25 according to CSU  23 according to UA). Averaging these forecasts and using the NOAA 70% confidence interval of 17-25 outputs a 3% prediction for a season with less than 16 named storms.   My forecast is slightly higher as the historical accuracy of forecasts made early in the season is not exceptionally high.","consulted_urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season","https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"efc033590d361b8a2c10837453385433472403746ae9dfe2643a3ed058697200","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688121,"question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":604,"file_id":1,"item_index":603,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SZINl91huS","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"651bb26f3a43c48ee75602571ba5d39b860b209ce66ec7297d9afadb8bf8d5a8","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SZINl91huS","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688121,"question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":605,"file_id":1,"item_index":604,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.2,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.2,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The residual from all other Storms questions","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"36e85815edd7a0c21583fb3b81993124e64c8baa9dcc19e9c1969f205dccec09","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688121,"question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":606,"file_id":1,"item_index":605,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.13,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.13,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"There will be at least 13 with 99% certainty  but considering the chance that complex phenomena such as sand storms and changing wind patterns maintain this question hard to predict.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c3d85c23a3369c8418647b00e2fa0d5de772ba49fa9bc9454d31247aaa9d39ec","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688121,"question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":607,"file_id":1,"item_index":606,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.05,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Okay  on Polymarket they are currently at 2% for this (link 1)  but I´m not a gambler  and I don´t believe gamblers  so let´s go to the source (link 2). No data for 2024 available there yet (although the season started on 1 June)  so looking at recent years.   2023: 19  plus 1 unnamed  plus 2 ones with numbers (no clue  if they count  but assuming they do) - assuming it to be 21  that count   2022: 17  including 1 potential and two with numbers  assuming this to be 16 or 17   2021: 21   2020: 31  including 1 depression   2019: 20  including 2 depressions   This looks like around 21 is normal  less than 16 very unlikely. But the only one I took a closer look at (Andrea in 2019) happened in May  thus outside the season and should not have counted. Tons of uncertainty here  pure gambling IMHO.   Giving this 5%  because this should follow some kind of standard deviation and 2022 was close.","consulted_urls":["https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024/will-there-be-less-than-16-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season?tid=1720968645278","https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c27a90f933da6108592282cbe3551c06f6d22d860ec382fa36e0690871f91748","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688121,"question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":608,"file_id":1,"item_index":607,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.06,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SXXYp0Pfba","forecast":0.06,"searches":["Atlantic hurricane season predictions 2024","2024 Atlantic named storms"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Reading the comments on polymarket reminded me of why I dont like public betting markets. We are moving quickly from an El Niño to La Niña in the Pacific basin. NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms   Climatologically  we are transitioning from the homegrown storms of June and early July to the more long-track storms that roll off Africa and take days to cross the Atlantic.   Saharan dust also reaches its peak concentration  helping to gobble up prospective storms.   This year  there’s also a third thing  the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO  a phase that promotes Pacific development and fills the Atlantic side with sinking air to further deter storm development.   The MJO is a cluster of clouds and rain that moves across the globe every 30-60 days. It can enhance or suppress tropical activity  depending upon what part of the world its currently in.   Flipping the switch   The opposite will be true heading into August. We are  of course  heading into the climatological peak of hurricane season  which will naturally promote storm development. In addition  the MJO will move back into a more favorable position for tropical development.   Im starting at 6. The forecasts are for a range of 17-25 and we had an early start to the season  but the lull  MJO and time between El Niño and La Niña raise enough uncertainty that I am not comfortable to go down to the 3% forecast of polymarket. I was just studying the weather shift for another project so some information is internal and prior. Part of this includes that localised changes that each system brings in terms of cooling or warming different regions and bringing more or less rain or pressure  to different areas within even countries the size of Mexico. These are not simple systems  especially when adding the general shift towards warming ocean temperatures. My guess is that it will be a severe and long season  but my uncertainty leads to fat tails.","consulted_urls":["https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/","https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season","https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/2024/07/18/hurricane-season-taking-an-extended-break-heres-when-tropical-activity-could-ramp-back-up/","https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/","https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/2024/07/18/hurricane-season-taking-an-extended-break-heres-when-tropical-activity-could-ramp-back-up/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"1456c8cee9fc6012c9b99fc225154c72669dc5018b599c259c7b1e1c1ca3d154","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SXXYp0Pfba","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688121,"question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":609,"file_id":1,"item_index":608,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.06,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SUpgMvejGk","forecast":0.06,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Well the NOAA forecast range 17-25 should be a 70% C.I. From years of watching hurricanes   I have seen have been several unexpectedly low Atlantic hurricane years. 2014: 8  2015: 11. Wind shear conditions have to be right in late August and September.  There is a chance of less than 16  NOAA thinks it is about 8%","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c04736356a33f478c7a94bbf7a96b61ca314a5dd3ed6ade1423d98129541e28a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SUpgMvejGk","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688121,"question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":610,"file_id":1,"item_index":609,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.12,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.12,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Residual from other bins","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"945580de9d8c3b9d0e558cae2518e47501ce4b85a7c4e8e857acd26d9e499590","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688121,"question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":611,"file_id":1,"item_index":610,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Prediction on the Wikipedia page are on the high side  compared with the long-term average. Im going to distribute my % as follows:   <16 2%   16-20 8%   21-25 60%   >25 30%","consulted_urls":["https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/super-charged-atlantic-hurricane-season-poised-for-intense-activity/1633944","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#:~:text=sometimes%20also%20considered.- Pre%2Dseason%20forecasts hurricanes%20and%204%20major%20hurricanes."],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a89a5e70c08a40bca84cb30daf8fda800ffe8f070ac67dd314e9d9e2977c091d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688121,"question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":612,"file_id":1,"item_index":611,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S2co9AhkoU","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"very unlikely event as I have answered in my qns for 16-20 and 21-25. will also be under par  which isnt how it has started.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5782caaa11f178265426631a6f4f5552524e9570d968aeee083b95ce3a838e59","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2co9AhkoU","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688121,"question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":613,"file_id":1,"item_index":612,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.12,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.12,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"64a9c14dd348ef3f1d19f71e756c09b9d7fcb556e058494b00b14ccd8252a119","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688121,"question_id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-01","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":616,"file_id":1,"item_index":615,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S3bbH6xnAb","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The case against   https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/heres-why-eagles-didnt-hire-bill-belichick-plus-3-teams-ex-patriots-coach-is-eyeing-for-2025-per-reports/","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"42f07a14df98bf7721a5e3e64f58620cdb1d2080f9558ea5c3b23f7774725ce5","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3bbH6xnAb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688098,"question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":617,"file_id":1,"item_index":616,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SZINl91huS","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Its possible  but not probable.  The Eagles dont really need him to win.  Of course  what goes on is sports is all for show.  Thus a lot of this early press is attention getting conjecture planted by teams  coaches  and players  to get some shine on themselves.   I dont think it will end up this way.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"af8839344881820d4eef1395767c83603c7b963081b678d42fbb75c7f9220bdc","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SZINl91huS","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688098,"question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":618,"file_id":1,"item_index":617,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Its lower than him coaching any team in the upcoming season but both reasonably round to zero.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9360b2bd8cd0240fe2fd00bb1fcca9add7c0751c28dbeb403f0f5a8f9146b437","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688098,"question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":619,"file_id":1,"item_index":618,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.004,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.004,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Belichick is interested in hooking on with a team for the 2025-2026 season. Perhaps the Cowboys or Giants. He wont go to the Eagles (or another team  I dont think) during the 24-25 season.   https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/heres-why-eagles-didnt-hire-bill-belichick-plus-3-teams-ex-patriots-coach-is-eyeing-for-2025-per-reports/   https://bookies.com/nfl/picks/bill-belichick-2024-team-odds","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f96c66acf09d323e4ec5f1e14be957dadd76af0d840fefb29671447b0a06525c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688098,"question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":621,"file_id":1,"item_index":620,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.0001,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.0001,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Out of 32 head coach jobs next season he´s got - none. All 32 jobs given to others. Only possible way for him to change that would IMO be one of the others dying  being sent to jail or whatever before the season and Belichick replacing him on short notice. For this question this would need to be the one for the Philly Eagles. Giving that 0.01 percent.  [redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"74e253623a8fc8a116271dc4def4ee9329accd3ac5e0da0d4c4af2125e715b9c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688098,"question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":622,"file_id":1,"item_index":621,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.0025,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SXXYp0Pfba","forecast":0.0025,"searches":["Bill Bellichik wiki","where will bill Bellichick coach","Philadelphia Eagles","Jeffrie Lurie","Jeffrie Lurie Bill Bellichick","Sirianni"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Lowering based from 1 to 0.25 based on learning I can enter numbers without the slider. I should go to 0 for having a top score  but 1 in 400 seems reasonable.","consulted_urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Belichick","https://fansided.com/posts/nfl-rumors-bill-belichick-2025-coaching-destinations-bills-jets-cowboys-more","https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nick-sirianni-dismisses-eagles-reported-interest-in-bill-belichick-pressure-on-him-to-perform-in-2024/","https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nick-sirianni-dismisses-eagles-reported-interest-in-bill-belichick-pressure-on-him-to-perform-in-2024/","https://nypost.com/2024/07/17/sports/bill-belichick-fully-invested-in-nfl-coaching-return-in-2025/","https://nesn.com/2024/07/nfl-rumors-bill-belichick-has-two-preferences-for-next-job/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"db2a4570775c6f04e1190f73991bdf8befcd3adf57e446d205dc0a7cb73748ac","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SXXYp0Pfba","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688098,"question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":623,"file_id":1,"item_index":622,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SUpgMvejGk","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"No. ESPN- Bill Belichick has added a second media job for the upcoming season.   The CW Network announced Thursday that Belichick will be one of the analysts on Inside the NFL. Belichick  who coached the New England Patriots to six Super Bowl titles during his 24 years at the helm  will also appear on the ManningCast during ESPNs Monday Night Football.   Belichick also joined The Pat McAfee Show for its NFL draft coverage in April and is scheduled to appear weekly on the show during the NFL season.   He is 72 years old and going the media route. New 23 year old girlfriend. For him to coach it would have to be as a replacement late in the season for another team that has fired its coach. Very likely some team will talk to him then  but he would have to be desperate to coach to take an offer from a poor team to coach a couple weeks. If he hates broadcasting  maybe he will entertain offers with better teams for 2025 season.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9474592ee5b4f35188386b65de983ebe91e058c52e9db892b44880585a8bff79","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SUpgMvejGk","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688098,"question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":624,"file_id":1,"item_index":623,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"No way. He would have been named the coach already if they were interested in firing coach this year. Typically when coaches are fired mid-season teams name an interim replacement  usually someone already on staff. A coach of Belicheks caliber will want time to prepare.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ca2632ad65c974400e77f058e6ad08645f78b28f23eb5c14c141c56d06165491","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688098,"question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":625,"file_id":1,"item_index":624,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SE9oSfk4nV","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"zeroing out  I had 0.1 % but I think it will not happen","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"db23ad34bc763fab25b513821d219f181b5a603000b4c86482963cb3878d8887","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SE9oSfk4nV","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688098,"question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":626,"file_id":1,"item_index":625,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SiIgce1WZv","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"1) Its way too late - it doesnt make sense to switch now.   2) Their current coach has 34 regular-season wins in his first three seasons - the most by any head coach in his first three years with the Eagles. And he has a Super Bowl appearance thanks to Philadelphia winning a franchise record 14 games in 2022.   https://theeagleswire.usatoday.com/lists/philadelphia-eagles-news-head-coach-rankings-history-andy-reid-doug-pederson-nick-sirianni-buddy-ryan/","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6cf647821b71d65ed2b2fd64945aaa6f54b3d3e271186f5c079774b143c8bcfa","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SiIgce1WZv","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688098,"question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":627,"file_id":1,"item_index":626,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","source":"polymarket","user_id":"Sg4x84spDg","forecast":0.1,"searches":["bill belichick eagles"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Adjusting my forecast downwards based on other forecasts - I didn’t even know who Belichick is","consulted_urls":["https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/heres-why-eagles-didnt-hire-bill-belichick-plus-3-teams-ex-patriots-coach-is-eyeing-for-2025-per-reports/","https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nick-sirianni-dismisses-eagles-reported-interest-in-bill-belichick-pressure-on-him-to-perform-in-2024/","https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/nfl/article-13629005/Bill-Belichick-Jordon-Hudson-Tom-Brady-Taylor-Swift.html"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a8f2536de93f8dd59fdeafb5add68d027bea8ea26a7238641deae4db860b009d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg4x84spDg","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688098,"question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":630,"file_id":1,"item_index":629,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"No chance at this time","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"fb6e122f58c86615739b9731c5415af7ffbcd96a3f9462c7e65bb16593c8dbe0","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688098,"question_id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":632,"file_id":1,"item_index":631,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","source":"polymarket","user_id":"Si0VpEBOWf","forecast":0.01,"searches":["https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10108979-bill-belichick-rumors-multiple-nfl-owners-reached-out-to-ex-patriots-hc-about-2025"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Apparently wants to be a head coach again. Maybe in the 2025-2026 season. My understanding is all the head coach spots at this point are filled. So it would take firing one of them for Belichick to get hired. And it would have to not be one of the 7 listed teams  which I gather are the teams most likely to be interested.Im not going to second guess the market much.","consulted_urls":["https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10108979-bill-belichick-rumors-multiple-nfl-owners-reached-out-to-ex-patriots-hc-about-2025"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3e8243c12caf214fc010c1f949cf567b670526b73f33ab65cc6910ba1ec81833","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Si0VpEBOWf","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688125,"question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":634,"file_id":1,"item_index":633,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0,"searches":["."],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Zero knowledge here. But:   - Polymarket has it at < 5%   - He is 72 y.o.   - He just announced that he got a job of TV analyst for the 2024/2025 season.   I am taking it that the chance is < 0.5%","consulted_urls":["https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/nfl/article-13624597/bill-belichick-nfl-coach-job-cw-network.html"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"840e9dcd250e3c0bf506dbdae76da1193b26bfbb14fa5b0507a42a21848c4d6e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688125,"question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":635,"file_id":1,"item_index":634,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Belichick is interested in hooking on with a team for the 2025-2026 season. Perhaps the Cowboys or Giants. He wont join a team during the 24-25 season.   https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/heres-why-eagles-didnt-hire-bill-belichick-plus-3-teams-ex-patriots-coach-is-eyeing-for-2025-per-reports/   https://bookies.com/nfl/picks/bill-belichick-2024-team-odds","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ee63ee711372b1b25a0e7835829d7be2426b42990c41b8902c09138eab3b999c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688125,"question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":637,"file_id":1,"item_index":636,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.0032,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.0032,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Out of 32 head coach jobs next season he´s got - none. All 32 jobs given to others. Only possible way for him to change that would IMO be one of the others dying  being sent to jail or whatever before the season and Belichick replacing him on short notice. 32*0.01 percent or so. [redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"db33eafa87962563e81c0b201afaa0c9f6d1937729c2cc3a8b9168c86f53527c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688125,"question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":638,"file_id":1,"item_index":637,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.015,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SXXYp0Pfba","forecast":0.015,"searches":["Bill Bellichik wiki","where will bill Bellichick coach","Philadelphia Eagles","Jeffrie Lurie","Jeffrie Lurie Bill Bellichick","Sirianni"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"He apparently wants to and has a superb record if one skips his last few years. Downsides - not easy for management to work with  may be passed his best days  probably very expensive  causing a problem for salary caps.","consulted_urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Belichick","https://fansided.com/posts/nfl-rumors-bill-belichick-2025-coaching-destinations-bills-jets-cowboys-more","https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nick-sirianni-dismisses-eagles-reported-interest-in-bill-belichick-pressure-on-him-to-perform-in-2024/","https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nick-sirianni-dismisses-eagles-reported-interest-in-bill-belichick-pressure-on-him-to-perform-in-2024/","https://nypost.com/2024/07/17/sports/bill-belichick-fully-invested-in-nfl-coaching-return-in-2025/","https://nesn.com/2024/07/nfl-rumors-bill-belichick-has-two-preferences-for-next-job/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6b1f4a32047b7d244a4ff5aab223431719875e7cb74c131dcfdc69a3a32aec0d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SXXYp0Pfba","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688125,"question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":639,"file_id":1,"item_index":638,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SUpgMvejGk","forecast":0.01,"searches":["belichick"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"ESPN- Bill Belichick has added a second media job for the upcoming season.   The CW Network announced Thursday that Belichick will be one of the analysts on Inside the NFL. Belichick  who coached the New England Patriots to six Super Bowl titles during his 24 years at the helm  will also appear on the ManningCast during ESPNs Monday Night Football.   Belichick also joined The Pat McAfee Show for its NFL draft coverage in April and is scheduled to appear weekly on the show during the NFL season.   He is 72 years old and going the media route. New 23 year old girlfriend. For him to coach it would have to be as a replacement late in the season for another team that has fired its coach. Very likely some team will talk to him then  but he would have to be desperate to coach to take an offer from a poor team to coach a couple weeks. If he hates broadcasting  maybe he will entertain offers with better teams for 2025 season.","consulted_urls":["https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40540907/bill-belichick-joining-nfl-upcoming-season"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"592d88198fba0d52f431bf767b5a1d5c09e9d65a1e9ceea3da0e22d13cb6f3b3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SUpgMvejGk","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688125,"question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":640,"file_id":1,"item_index":639,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.002,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.002,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Coaches of Belicheks caliber dont come in as mid-year replacements  hell want a full offseason to prepare. Also allows him to see which jobs are the best fits (since there are almost always multiple openings). This assumes he definitely still wants to coach and teams are interested in him.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"dd2eebc5c02c21cd09a205d4ae00d70f6927ce54a961ae45b05166e3439b7de4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688125,"question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":641,"file_id":1,"item_index":640,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/bill-belichick-fully-invested-in-return-to-coaching-after-2024-broadcasting-jobs-per-report/   he wants to come back but this is very unlikely","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5e2402ad812cd38b3107512c1fae0e7dce1b373dd906f753d8ed6d46af7d0940","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688125,"question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":642,"file_id":1,"item_index":641,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Isnt the thesis of that article that he wants to coach in 2025? And that his top three are Philadelphia  Dallas  and Buffalo  two of which are excluded from the question for some reason?","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"248079498bab87e7528c234b449554ca5d47d322b20b08ca10657ecae14dd74c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688125,"question_id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-09-04","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":643,"file_id":1,"item_index":642,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.45,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","source":"polymarket","user_id":"Si0VpEBOWf","forecast":0.45,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"As far as I can tell  two have occurred this year  with another tentatively scheduled for August  and the fourth is tentatively scheduled for later in 2024.   The FAA has suspended flights of Falcon 9. My guess is thats tied to specifics of the rocket  and wont affect Spacex launches of other rockets.","consulted_urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#Planned_launch_and_landing_profile"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ab268bb43b7026ddafa8b1a30f34dc62386eb605684009b3427d603ecbc96b76","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Si0VpEBOWf","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688090,"question_id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":644,"file_id":1,"item_index":643,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.62,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.62,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Two done. Another two is perfectly believable. More believable than five. The fifth can serve as a backup  too.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e26957b32783d64b317f2afac63b7af38f0307464cbc6cd4eed9ec05c9ede135","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688090,"question_id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":645,"file_id":1,"item_index":644,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.15,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.15,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Either the FAA resolves this quickly  and the two scheduled launches for July/Aug happen with a small delay  and the 2 or more scheduled for sept-nov go ahead too and four is surpassed  or the FAA continues to block spaceX and Trump ally Musk until november (a real possibility) missing 4 entirely.","consulted_urls":["https://www.space.com/spacex-falcon-9-failure-nasa-independent-investigation"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"58af005ff87e87c823907bec28260bcd1361f76b15d0fa3251ff78141617d1b0","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688090,"question_id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":646,"file_id":1,"item_index":645,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.24,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SUpgMvejGk","forecast":0.24,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"-","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"fb44715a23ac6d5a4fe0d3dc563babb4ceda1b7d0cb59921f161f18f7f41be3d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SUpgMvejGk","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688090,"question_id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":647,"file_id":1,"item_index":646,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.57,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.57,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"It seems like there has been two launches so far  and the next launch is scheduled for some time in August. So the question is if that does actually launch on time and if there is time for at least one other launch later this year.   The last launch was in June  so if the next launch does occur in August in seems very feasible that they could launch again at least 1 more time in 2022.   Timeframe seems to be driving towards NASAs Artemis program launch (for which Starship is the vehicle) in 2026  which requires extensive Starship testing. So there is a lot of reasons why Space X and Nasa will want launches to continue.   Other factors are that fall is hurricane season in the Gulf  which may impact launch windows or timelines.   Polymarket has this at a ~93% chance we get to at least 4 launches  and a 44% chance we get to 5 or more. Thats a roughly 48-49% chance of exactly 4 launches.   Ill go a little higher than that on theory that something will go wrong with one of hte next two  which will make it difficult to get to 5  but I do think theyll make it to 4 by the end of the year.","consulted_urls":["https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-test-fire-booster-5th-flight"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"24ed6c35bcdce7274ae4dfabb51869d6bbb7afcdfc3b5be8ccb8935a10c4ddc6","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688090,"question_id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":648,"file_id":1,"item_index":647,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.57,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","source":"polymarket","user_id":"Sg4x84spDg","forecast":0.57,"searches":["how many spacex outer space launches in 2024;"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"1. The criteria are difficult to ascertain as the spacex website and secondary sources dont clearly specify which launches reach outer space and which dont. However  it seems spacex has already launched 3 rockets into outer space this year.   2. The FAA has currently grounded the Falcon 9  Spacex workhorse rocket until the investigation of an incident is complete. This could take weeks or months depending on complexity.","consulted_urls":["https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/spacex-falcon-9-suffers-rare-failure-space-imperiling-starlink-mission-2024-07-12/","https://www.spacex.com/launches/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5982c2ae3e33ac39b8b40abb0f4632dcdf90174f48455cc2855e946dc91840a1","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg4x84spDg","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688090,"question_id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":649,"file_id":1,"item_index":648,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.35,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.35,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/spacex-falcon9-grounded-1.7267904   SpaceXs Falcon 9 rocket grounded after mishap in space  leaving fate of upcoming missions uncertain","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"8831a186ea4a6ac2d2092a50f304c914dd4e0c6da3624327f122740c99feda52","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688090,"question_id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":650,"file_id":1,"item_index":649,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.46,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":0.46,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"2 have happened  next one scheduled for August and another No. 6 probable. If all goes well  then a fifth is possible. We have possible downside and upside so going with just less than 50/50","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e7bfa45a94f4cbac61e0a839c8f9a6d3b123b81462ae8ab0bf50041856cae28b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688090,"question_id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-30","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":699,"file_id":1,"item_index":698,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x63634b4e14297a748923f86dca4fa0c6c659db0f5fadeeb8e419e48e20759c34","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x63634b4e14297a748923f86dca4fa0c6c659db0f5fadeeb8e419e48e20759c34","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SZINl91huS","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"No.  But it would really be interesting to see her debate Trump again!","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0b289c8d7d9fddc4d275fe68d821d4d6af9f05df103517308fd9cd986f7bccf6","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SZINl91huS","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x63634b4e14297a748923f86dca4fa0c6c659db0f5fadeeb8e419e48e20759c34","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x63634b4e14297a748923f86dca4fa0c6c659db0f5fadeeb8e419e48e20759c34","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688108,"question_id":"0x63634b4e14297a748923f86dca4fa0c6c659db0f5fadeeb8e419e48e20759c34","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-11-05","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":771,"file_id":1,"item_index":770,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.2,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.2,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I think consensus is low here. Many good contenders but he is at least in the top 4 for sure.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"cf34dfcf76999bd1d7d30284d9003823836ca021b9dc1d97123980e9acf32f15","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688087,"question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":772,"file_id":1,"item_index":771,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.0175,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.0175,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Both named actors here seem highly unlikely.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"61c9fa4d636e391974714a991bf8c40a0327ce48437144551c167ca6c3047d4f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688087,"question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":773,"file_id":1,"item_index":772,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.09,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.09,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Googled him and I would cast him more as a villain.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"49a79efc7ff0116f35cbb7a13995c596798ddf51f6950b09bedb18fc288eaabe","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688087,"question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":774,"file_id":1,"item_index":773,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.03,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Puuuuhhhhhhh.....   A tough woman in a sense of a little androgyne/masculine style aggressive? The most sexy woman on earth  who can somehow be establised as supertough  harder than any man? A man either of colour (in the widest sense because of the US black or hispanic  China and India markets) or probably gay/diverse for wokeness? I have no freaking clue at all here. Or they might sail close to the coast with someone not too far away from Craig (who was the brightest choice sincethe invention of sliced bread IMHO). All I know is  that it will be about money (!) and about developping or protecting the brand. Neither Norton nor Idris are high on my list. 3 percent each.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"dbf5e87b03060ebb0673de1de109d7c7e246c3f7c651ebf93cdb5c2939152eb8","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688087,"question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":775,"file_id":1,"item_index":774,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.03,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Seems like producers are looking in other directions  and chance announcement is not made prior to the end of the year.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"bc62e248cca20cef57bad669b90d4620a3b8292cb7b56872965accbf33b817ca","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688087,"question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":776,"file_id":1,"item_index":775,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.11,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.11,"searches":["new James Bond"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Going slightly lower to factor in the chance that no choice will be made this year","consulted_urls":["https://www.esquire.com/uk/culture/a25723722/who-will-be-the-next-james-bond-an-in-depth-analysis/","https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/new-james-bond","https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/films/1914850/Next-James-Bond-odds-Aaron-Taylor-Johnson-Daniel-Craig"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"408bdf36de6c8a7daa53e8f59cbfbe510bf0e185e233527425cf30bda7463842","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688087,"question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":777,"file_id":1,"item_index":776,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.13,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S5CrWZaPfh","forecast":0.13,"searches":["who will be the next james bond","when will the next james bond actor be announced","when is the next james bond movie due out","average pre-production phase of a movie","when did pre-production of James Bond 26 start"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"First  quick forecast.   Basing it on a single article from March 2024 article where bookie assigned odds are given for 9 actors [1].   Article gives Norton 7/1 odds (12.5%) of being bond  while Aaron-Taylor Johnson is given 2/1 odds (33%).   Article states it is in preproduction and quick googling suggests 3-7 months is the range a movie typically spends in pre-production [2]. If this timeframe applies to the movie and even if pre-production started in March when article [1] was published  that should put an announcement within 2024.   The first article reports that Aaron Taylor-Johnson has an offer.   Going to go with the given odds (rounded) to start in light of a report of an offer being out for another actor. Sans such a report  I would have been inclined to go a bit higher. I need to look at the odds for the others and think about my reasoning here a bit more but could see going lower.","consulted_urls":["[1] https://www.timeout.com/news/everything-we-know-about-bond-26-so-far-010523","[2] https://www.studiobinder.com/blog/how-long-does-it-take-to-make-a-movie/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"bea15c1b68e3c94bbecb060d3388835d9a65689d08979f4a94e3435c841535a2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S5CrWZaPfh","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688087,"question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":778,"file_id":1,"item_index":777,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S488gnM8HQ","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"1.  17% to 50% that the next James Bond will be a woman or a non-White British male.  Barbara Broccoli is receptive to updating the James Bond character via race-swapping or gender-swapping.  If Idris Elba was 35 years old (versus 51 in real life)  I would label Idris as a serious front-runner.  </br>   2.  Nortons lineage has an OBE and MBE....in my opinion  Nortons background is too aristocratic for Broccoli.  I mention Broccoli repeatedly as the choice is literally hers with very little input from others.   3.  Henry Cavil and Tom Hardy are better box office draws than Norton  and the appropriate age.  Given the expensive budgets of contemporary Bond films  a proven winner at the box office is paramount---particularly given the fragmentation of the film industry (ie  the decline of the movie theatre revenue and the willingness of a significant portion of audiences to wait for movies to reach streaming services).   4.  There are two paths for Broccoli:  a proven star (eg  Cavil  Hardy  et al) or the Daisy Ridley option---a relatively unknown (also inexpensive) actor---with a high odd of being a non-White British male.  Norton is in the no mans land---an unknown commodity outside of the UK  and someone who does not grab the zeitgeist as I want to see him as the next James Bond.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"48d0e8b3ba77024536aa05774e487c0591b0bf9499687bf65ba6cb58edd68dc3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S488gnM8HQ","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688087,"question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":779,"file_id":1,"item_index":778,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.03,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"may be a bit more chance than Idris","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5dc848ca5d9c8af4ca87b77a4d0a1c79b65ff26ecfddcaa8d0eaa0185bb0d761","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688087,"question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":780,"file_id":1,"item_index":779,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Some chance theres no announcement by the deadline  although it sounds like it will happen by then. Polymarket has Norton at 1  seeming to believe the report about an offer to Taylor-Johnson","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"edb4ee8667e08a5bdd351dc27abcd3448db463f8a77f199d4d36bedb4a16c872","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688087,"question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":781,"file_id":1,"item_index":780,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.07,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.07,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Polymarket a lot more optimistic","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a49e957d1a67c3008ad69a7ce366d1c72cbbe4920862e6b4dc12ad29ba11db69","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688087,"question_id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":782,"file_id":1,"item_index":781,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SZINl91huS","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Read my Norton write up.  Idris is not going there.  The whole race discussion turned him off to the part.  And Broccoli was taking too much time.  Gotta go do other things.   He would have been my favorite to take the part  but  I dont blame him for walking away.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"af445323d4cdf83bb928a763103418275e1fa9405bd2aa498414f5fb650775fb","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SZINl91huS","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688136,"question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":783,"file_id":1,"item_index":782,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Hard zero. They cant lose money forever. The days of casting black actress to to play Anne Boleyn are over (at least in the short term).","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"91ec74ba25dcc4e817f52a705d8620fc00e004aab79e355fa27141aca9c3e941","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688136,"question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":784,"file_id":1,"item_index":783,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.0075,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.0075,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Both named actors here seem highly unlikely.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a69efba71100e28099494e108402bca182af40b6c9275a25832f7432dc9c8caf","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688136,"question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":785,"file_id":1,"item_index":784,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"not happening","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f8fe8a8615164ef6daaae9e2c4783658038bec9be8a4db35f692255eebd1d724","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688136,"question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":786,"file_id":1,"item_index":785,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S7aWY2TYGI","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"1. The next James Bond might not be announced prior to the close date. The closer we get to the close date  the more likely this becomes.   https://www.timeout.com/news/everything-we-know-about-bond-26-so-far-010523   FTA: With Bond 26 not expected on our cinema screens until 2025 at the earliest  the film remains firmly in the pre-pre-production phase.   2. The rumor mill thinks its might be Taylor-Johnson:   https://www.thesun.co.uk/tv/26774029/aaron-taylor-johnson-offered-role-james-bond/   https://www.rollingstone.co.uk/film/aaron-taylor-johnson-britains-next-leading-man-bond-interview-37853/   3. Even if its not  the list of potential Bonds is long  suggesting (absent inside knowledge) that the odds for any one actor is low.   4. Damson Idris rumors seemed to have peaked in 2023.   5. That said  I dont think Barbara Broccoli would balk at casting Idris just because hes black:   https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/jan/03/hollywood-barbara-broccoli-till-confronting-us-racism   6. Damon Idris might have reservations  the same way Idris Elba did   https://ew.com/movies/idris-elba-soured-on-james-bond-role/:   FTA: Idris Elba says he soured on the idea of playing James Bond after it became about race   ...or he might not. I havent read anything the lends insight one way or the other.   7. Ill stick with the Polymarket odds--roughly figuring theres a 4% chance hes picked  and a 50/50 chance any pick is announced prior to the close date.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5c5a2d044526e6db435556f6739ce5f5973abde603823f7b683845461ad4c408","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S7aWY2TYGI","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688136,"question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":787,"file_id":1,"item_index":786,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.03,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Puuuuhhhhhhh.....   A tough woman in a sense of a little androgyne/masculine style aggressive? The most sexy woman on earth  who can somehow be establised as supertough  harder than any man? A man either of colour (in the widest sense because of the US black or hispanic  China and India markets) or probably gay/diverse for wokeness? I have no freaking clue at all here. Or they might sail close to the coast with someone not too far away from Craig (who was the brightest choice since sliced bread IMHO). All I know is  that it will be about money (!) and about developping or protecting the brand. Neither Norton nor Idris are high on my list. 3 percent each.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"888c44f50307cd08b938772cca79d59ce4ab412c057db720725aab990f2a08f8","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688136,"question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":788,"file_id":1,"item_index":787,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.006,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SXXYp0Pfba","forecast":0.006,"searches":["Damson Idris Bond"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Dropping like a rock after reading the comments [redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":["https://metro.co.uk/2024/07/15/actors-now-biggest-contenders-play-james-bond-21228268/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5fbf237abe5d77b74685197643f3ab5414302b66a6b4c4418e13e5b9b7da791f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SXXYp0Pfba","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688136,"question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":789,"file_id":1,"item_index":788,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SnOyJtNds8","forecast":0.03,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Ill go with a bit higher than market  but I have no idea.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b83e438a958da80ae374e2f66a77444f0383922591fc9aac2395b6eca1d5522b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnOyJtNds8","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688136,"question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":790,"file_id":1,"item_index":789,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Correcting wonky forecast - Im not sure why it was registering as 52","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"05e0fbe3d29582dee6a2707318fcd2d4954e8c901157c8aa7d3d5e8baa425a41","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688136,"question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":791,"file_id":1,"item_index":790,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S5CrWZaPfh","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Have seem him given 16/1 odds  but Im going with 0. Seems there would have to be a change of heart from the producers from a couple years ago [1]:   [NOTE: from 2022 article] ...producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael G Wilson are currently seeking the next actor to portray Bond  but have warned the next movie won’t start filming for at least two more years.   Despite only turning 50 this month – and looking at least two decades younger than that – Elba has been all but ruled out by Bond producers who want someone to stick with the franchise for at least a decade.   ‘He’s great. We love Idris ’ Broccoli tells Variety. ‘The thing is  it’s going to be a couple of years off ’ Broccoli explained. ‘And when we cast Bond  it’s a ten to 12-year commitment. So he’s probably thinking  ‘Do I really want that thing? Not everybody wants to do that. It was hard enough getting Daniel Craig to do it.’   https://www.timeout.com/news/its-official-idris-elba-wont-be-the-new-007-092222","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"028ce4c370f7b2f8121f38207493013ef8bac8632abe5e81c83098cbe6e38b50","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S5CrWZaPfh","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688136,"question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":792,"file_id":1,"item_index":791,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","source":"polymarket","user_id":"Sg4x84spDg","forecast":0.03,"searches":["Idris Elba Bond"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Thanks - got my Idris mixed up! Happy with initial forecast either way","consulted_urls":["https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-13324225/Idris-Elba-James-Bond-rumours-famous-not-playing-Bond-actors-did.html"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f3393ce265d13287f17cb11252287a891ba18e935884a52d3bcb6fd37da1f752","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg4x84spDg","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688136,"question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":793,"file_id":1,"item_index":792,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S488gnM8HQ","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Too old.  40 y.o. Idris","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3ceaf85fae788e97d4b404a3c1a4f29c5194b6102dc3fad187145827436ffe36","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S488gnM8HQ","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688136,"question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":794,"file_id":1,"item_index":793,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"unlikely","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ce3dea98dbc1e9a736d95e0e67efcda39de1c7581f830fe8679202c5eb289863","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688136,"question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":795,"file_id":1,"item_index":794,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Polymarket other at 75% doesnt make sense to me unless theres a high chance they dont announce by 12/31. Makes me think that possibility is being undervalued","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ebe5a74c82d6a8249f4e791140b8749da7ec5acc6c238a0f8706684208c5d6d2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688136,"question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":796,"file_id":1,"item_index":795,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":0.02,"searches":["next bond film?"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Not certain it will be announced before year end and Idris looks a long shot.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"061c8689b86f56b159ecb43b5bc120985b2387df8db5bad91d891a42b43b2180","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688136,"question_id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":797,"file_id":1,"item_index":796,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.35,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S3bbH6xnAb","forecast":0.35,"searches":["Eigenlayer token;"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Outlines technology challeges. SEC has backoff its investigations.  The Trump will speak at a Bitcoin convention.  Holding my forecast   https://everstake-news.medium.com/eigenlayer-faces-up-to-50-fake-delegations-in-latest-airdrop-713bfe54e642   https://blockworks.co/news/empire-newsletter-eigenlayer-airdrop-criticisms   https://www.bankless.com/trump-doubles-down-on-bitcoin-2","consulted_urls":["https://cointelegraph.com/news/eigenlayer-team-launches-eigen-token-non-transferable-till-september","https://everstake-news.medium.com/eigenlayer-announces-eigen-token-launch-and-introduce-stakedrop-444eba7ba7fc","https://cryptoadventure.com/eigenlayers-exclusive-15-billion-token-launch-whos-in-and-whos-out/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b21dbad2e8a80cceb23b2515ced72ad7bcbd13d9ce72332133b70ede02a054bd","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3bbH6xnAb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688132,"question_id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":798,"file_id":1,"item_index":797,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SnBEoonCrb","forecast":0.03,"searches":["eigenlayer token launch delayed"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Initial forecast: apparently the tokens will be enabled for transferring in September  thus fulfilling the condition for a positive resolution.","consulted_urls":["https://cointelegraph.com/news/eigenlayer-team-launches-eigen-token-non-transferable-till-september"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c1e345d5d6a7e33071c6a0d66db5670a041f0f18991726196ae11eb84bdbaa90","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnBEoonCrb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688132,"question_id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":799,"file_id":1,"item_index":798,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Seems like there is a bit of overconfidence around here. Companies promise a lot of things but it does not mean they will deliver.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"388fb4ad3b0987319baf29e7f3cc1cb3251ed5823bb7be67841a28d5ee450d51","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688132,"question_id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":800,"file_id":1,"item_index":799,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.1,"searches":["Eigenlayer token","Eigenlayer token launch"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Update","consulted_urls":["https://polymarket.com/event/eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch/no-eigenlayer-launch-in-2024?tid=1721247394500","https://www.cryptotimes.io/2024/06/20/eigenlayer-launches-phase-2-of-its-eigen-token-airdrop/","https://www.newsbtc.com/news/eigenlayer-exclusive-15-billion-token-launch-whos-in-and-whos-out/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"8752b05c9abbd87fcc200c8042ddabeb4484fa47d6baa3229a6b1213a8729bf9","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688132,"question_id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":801,"file_id":1,"item_index":800,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S5CrWZaPfh","forecast":0.02,"searches":["what is eigenlayer","eigenlayer token"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Interesting question phrasing here so need to be sure my initial  quick read and first forecast interpreted it correctly.   Article here says it has launched a token (EIGEN) but it is non-transferrable until September. [1]. Resolution states such a locked token does not resolve the question - in other words it must be usable.   Market has No Launch in 2024 at 4% when I looked today (18.7.2024).   Jumping in at 2% chance of No Launch in 2024.","consulted_urls":["[1] https://cointelegraph.com/news/eigenlayer-team-launches-eigen-token-non-transferable-till-september"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0411d3481a60888a5382a00c0c68e8a3f2d78ecfc161adf7dadd72cd3cae23ca","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S5CrWZaPfh","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688132,"question_id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":802,"file_id":1,"item_index":801,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"https://www.dlnews.com/articles/defi/why-eigenlayer-and-other-restaking-projects-are-cooling-off/","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3f6c1bebb951ecab9ec6a82d6a241f28586ef1f3741ddf9c1671e629aea38a70","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688132,"question_id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":803,"file_id":1,"item_index":802,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Looks like it will need to wait until May next year","consulted_urls":["https://iq.wiki/wiki/eigenlayer/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5823986590cfb31937420367229afd52b8763d2a3fe1d2efb2901f0c29455cbe","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688132,"question_id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":804,"file_id":1,"item_index":803,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.55,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SZINl91huS","forecast":0.55,"searches":["When will Open AI finish GPT-5?"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"This is probably more a question of what capabilities will GPT-5 have  and how well will it work  when it is released.  There may be a host of other reasons positive press is needed come the end of 2024.   Notice:  There is already talk at Microsoft of lanes of AI  and GPT-6 development.   Ahhhh  the pressure for good news  profits  anticipation  and mystery!   l am more bullish on the release in Q$-2024 than Polymarket.  But Im not sure of the quality.  It might be more GPT-6 Beta....  If it isnt well trained  or all that spiffy  they will have another quarter to work on it and get it up to snuff  but they will have ended Q4 on a high note.","consulted_urls":["https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/the-microsoft-ai-ceo-just-dropped-a-huge-hint-about-gpt-5/ar-BB1oT3aG"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"181bc711a63e6f5d9a00d7eba63e88cfa010202938d598780baaca211b2b3377","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SZINl91huS","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688100,"question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":805,"file_id":1,"item_index":804,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.11,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.11,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Just about everyone sucks at timeline projections. So the late 2024 or early 2025 almost invariably means early 2025 or later than that.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"aee020a3c367a702cdf2f7635982c2acb99b0cc633d740c4ffb7fce13c0662c8","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688100,"question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":806,"file_id":1,"item_index":805,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1275,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.1275,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Arguably  thinking that theres a greater chance closer to December than there is to October.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9ad43e39d4f14d0cb7604798593548d5e6b061b5d1b49393be73f16d74ef3928","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688100,"question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":807,"file_id":1,"item_index":806,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"It ends up being more about branding strategy than about the unrealistic imagination of large model runs concluding and being tested. Gpt-4 is being updated every 3 months or so  and a succesor would be best announced just before an IPO which is rumored for next year or so.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"674d329145769e1728b847ee5340ce1b9f5531cbfe333785f151b7c92eb8d3b8","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688100,"question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":809,"file_id":1,"item_index":808,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"GPT 4o came out in May 2024. No clue  if that means more or less than the naming 4.5 I would have expected. Will there be a fundamentally new version deserving the name GPT 5 so close to that - and then just exactly in the narrow time frame of this question? Will there even be anything worth the 5 in the next few years? The leading Chess engine Stockfish is stuck at version 16.1 for a long time. GPT might have reached some kind of limit as well.   [redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"abf875a4ab63a1f9b7026d7e0ab3cf198d0f4b0cd4208973e198db77d9eaaa6e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688100,"question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":811,"file_id":1,"item_index":810,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S2s1t6Uzpa","forecast":0.1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"OpenAI CTO Mira Murati recently said that it will be still one and a half year before GPT-5  which I found reasonable enough: https://www.yahoo.com/tech/gpt-5-ph-d-level-234618175.html","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9c9442228b07a3d1e28595a0a3f2a52185251322838b3153f149b74e398c45b2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2s1t6Uzpa","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688100,"question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":812,"file_id":1,"item_index":811,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.08,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.08,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Based on comments from execs it looks like this will be next year at the earliest.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"392fb258adf372d3ee4a7a822c75a770304e03b30f80f33d2d39af2a15b9f1bd","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688100,"question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":813,"file_id":1,"item_index":812,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SiIgce1WZv","forecast":0.1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Sounds like were a year or so out  with 4.5 being on deck. With 4.5 not even released and supposedly not enough computing power for 5  doesnt seem likely to be this year.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0dbe05255821ce3f1c115c8d4287a4816183633ed4be23c71928c50882f3bbd2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SiIgce1WZv","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688100,"question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":814,"file_id":1,"item_index":813,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.15,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.15,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Well get ChatGPT 4.5 this year (maybe)  ChatGPT 5 will probably take another year. Why?   1) The gap between GPT-3 and GPT-4 release was 33 months. If you count 33 months from GPT-4 release  that equals December 2025 for GPT-5.   2) The new NVIDIA B100 and B200 GPUs will not ramp up until 2025  and it s hardware that ChatGPT desperately needs   3) OpenAI has hinted that it will introduce 4.5 first. Its not very likely that they will want it to be overshadowed by version 5 just a few months later   4) It probably wants/needs to include strawberry  an ambitious work-in-progress","consulted_urls":["https://www.techopedia.com/chatgpt-5-all-you-need-to-know","https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1dmap17/possible_timelines_for_gpt45_and_gpt5/","https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-working-new-reasoning-technology-under-code-name-strawberry-2024-07-12/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f930c25d71bfa0a4b8f2eed9d0b0d5226078701e9c60e2090c08adf44ad1b595","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688100,"question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":815,"file_id":1,"item_index":814,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Probably from next year","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"eca2737b6e2f4a70f346547108ed2ef17bf77a26c04284b816605a3a819d4e3f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688100,"question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":816,"file_id":1,"item_index":815,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.126,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SCyupbOzJd","forecast":0.126,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The mere announcement of it is reason to remain elevated [redacted to maintain anonymity]  there is a great year and a half more that is expected at this current time. There are leadership changes and possibly priority conflicts going on  more legal work needed to be considered over the next several months. A huge step would be needed to get us into the GPT-5 version.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"094c86b2fb59ec0d4a3f3a96534e116511e443bc263e7eaca76e5f6dcf92f89b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SCyupbOzJd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688100,"question_id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":821,"file_id":1,"item_index":820,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.99,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.99,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The purpose of the whole Satoshi meme about identity and anonymity was just a ploy to pump bitcoin.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ebd0696b0d782bd059ee3e3e5c34232f03111852b282d6c69a268efa1abe8b33","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688118,"question_id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":823,"file_id":1,"item_index":822,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.99,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.99,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"5 1/2 months left  and as far as I know  nobody on the planet has a clue  who might even know  who he/she/they really is/are. Base rate is strongly against this: Bitcoin started 2008/09  last mail sent by Nakamoto in 2011  so it´s many years without any trace. I haven´t found any reason to believe  that anything is about to come out about him. If he´s a loner - no chance. If he´s part of a secret agency - no chance. If he´s a gangster - no chance. Perhaps  if it should be one single person  with his/her death we will get to know more. Very  very unlikely.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0b35614f4beb441d461fa93d497cc0fd2a0864b7300532e2a69c806672a7e078","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688118,"question_id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":824,"file_id":1,"item_index":823,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","source":"polymarket","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The guy is either dead  or really  really  really  does not want credit.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"713a5e639976f81e65185469f3e8fa12f24822405c56ebec8471e2b13c49ac6b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688118,"question_id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":827,"file_id":1,"item_index":826,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.99,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SE9oSfk4nV","forecast":0.99,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Short time and definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto might be difficult to obtain unless Satoshi reveales himself but what would trigger to do it now?","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6bd6d61efe4dc4a8323cc0857211a263c22e50d410fbecea8eb64e124ba59035","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SE9oSfk4nV","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688118,"question_id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":828,"file_id":1,"item_index":827,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.99,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.99,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Question is stupidly worded imo. His/her identity has been kept secret for around 15 years now and it will probably stay that way for at least a few months more.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"93dc61782c62518828521364dd3d39aea2b16c5669631137a6a2ae44bded259e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688118,"question_id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":829,"file_id":1,"item_index":828,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.95,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S5CrWZaPfh","forecast":0.95,"searches":["A. how close are we to knowing the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto","creator of Bitcoin"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Australian Craig Wright seems to have been the most likely candidate - by his claims anyway - but it has been ruled he is not. The burden of proof still lies with him after this judgment.   One article includes some compelling reasons why Satoshi Nakamoto would remain anonymous [1]:   - Decentralizations best chances of succeding may be through organic growth with no leader/figurehead (opposite SBF model)   - Preserves equal influence of contributors on the project   - Preserves community-driven project   - Avoids possible legal and regulatory hurdles   - Preserves their privacy and security   Im tempted to go higher than 95%  but Ill remain there on the first forecast. It would probably be some sort of personal change or crisis for SN to reveal their identity. Will have to explore that some more.","consulted_urls":["[1] https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/why-has-satoshi-nakamoto-remained-anonymous"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d22cc95a4faffb38dd7f1d923ff8026892931ea2fb6eae0c2d00055a071f9b82","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S5CrWZaPfh","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688118,"question_id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":831,"file_id":1,"item_index":830,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.99,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.99,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Still a mystery","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6a1459cbc6d47deeb903bc665a49b4d3c1d43fca9991582dc4adbbcbfc39b912","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688118,"question_id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":833,"file_id":1,"item_index":832,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SsuHJKpbpe","forecast":1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"status quo. Except for the Craig liar. https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2024/05/bitcoin-identity-trial-concludes-dr-craig-wright-is-not-the-creator-of-bitcoin","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"38fa81bc0099ce1907f1b04bb72c36d91c1fb7326474dfdb414eefe82bb176d1","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsuHJKpbpe","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688118,"question_id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":834,"file_id":1,"item_index":833,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Just took a quick look at this question and well... It has been resolved!","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"14f43c56c57b1964d714d3d526553018a2a758ed80e23a11d9ab4b2c653e02f1","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688089,"question_id":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":835,"file_id":1,"item_index":834,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"There is already a resolution dispute as it did cross 1 B for a second this week  but trend is downward  but will be downward for all Cat memecoins and they may have cornered a difficult niche market so they will probably maintain their relative leadership unless a new feline memecoin hits an already saturated coin market which will not happen before years end  so either this resolves as yes or doesnt resolve.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"67cdcde7ffccf4a4e54215d05bc7bfa7baa156fafced0eb2f00ed8e28a733759","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688089,"question_id":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":837,"file_id":1,"item_index":836,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I think Polymarket has resolved this as YES  after a dispute. Looks like someone pumped up the price for just a second.","consulted_urls":["https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/cat-themed-coins"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"79949a8d633723a714f6d9afa38217c053c09168b1ffb3ddafebc602ce037886","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688089,"question_id":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":838,"file_id":1,"item_index":837,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","source":"polymarket","user_id":"Sg4x84spDg","forecast":1,"searches":["Popcat meme coin"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Updating based on resolution","consulted_urls":["https://medium.com/nftdailydose/how-popcat-became-solanas-hottest-memecoin-in-2024-f09e7741ba0a","https://dexscreener.com/solana/frhb8l7y9qq41qzxyltc2nw8an1rjfllxrf2x9rwllmo"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"334eb2079696b06f631be8d558ee887a91c2f914810f4c62b42e6750fce55c3f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg4x84spDg","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688089,"question_id":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":839,"file_id":1,"item_index":838,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"updating resolved as Yes","consulted_urls":["https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/popcat-sol/","https://cryptonary.com/market-analysis/the-purr-fect-meme-coin-opportunity-in-solana/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"38089814d58a059e4c9524bbcb007cfbc7361a9c49f6964f91c97491e5a1f6f3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688089,"question_id":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":840,"file_id":1,"item_index":839,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.09,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.09,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"If Popcat does not resolve as yes  which may not happen due to blatant manipulation of the market  I will shift this forecast as I do not think cat memecoins can combat a downward trend through their feline attractiveness.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"4d7352883cf8cf458ba60b83b2948c528ce7a244458ec1e3f3ebbef4f0586a26","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688131,"question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":841,"file_id":1,"item_index":840,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Resolution site (link 1) says On June 26  $DORAE surpassed $1b FDV. However  the FDV was hyper-inflated due to extremely low liquidity. Therefore  this event will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.. No matter how you view it: it´s none of the ones mentioned  PLUS resolution site is down and will therefore not resolve as yes for one of the others. Zero  this is. --------------------------- https://polymarket.com/event/first-cat-to-1b/will-another-cat-memecoin-reach-1b-first?tid=1721585647233","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5c63a91efd6576c81ffd1d91943b3d1ea7b31f71e145fa2c8939bb1a94e6006c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688131,"question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":842,"file_id":1,"item_index":841,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SUpgMvejGk","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":null,"consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"fb5854db0af8116f1ea8070d522cd16a64ff670527285094fab4b1b2b6fb1e2b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SUpgMvejGk","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688131,"question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":843,"file_id":1,"item_index":842,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Going to 0 with PopCat resolving as yes.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f62653acc692b260550dd30f9428bc1ff07325e114f54e903fa7b20a21339c38","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688131,"question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":844,"file_id":1,"item_index":843,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SiIgce1WZv","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"This question still doesnt make sense to me. The polymarket question makes some sense - pick the winning cat memecoin  but even then  the opening rule is confusing (This market will resolve to Yes if a cat memecoin other than HOBBES  Keycat  POPCAT  Shark Cat  MEW  and TOSHI reaches $1b before they do. Otherwise  this market will resolve to No.).   [redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"09764a3a55ee7aeaf7e8940356299c7554ae00ff4e606d46649c8fdeee291e81","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SiIgce1WZv","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688131,"question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":845,"file_id":1,"item_index":844,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"If I had to invest in a memecoin  it would be a feline-related one.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"511be28fd2e13159a83df891eeab4b3ebddb7171d33ed443fb6bd57d49b84281","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688131,"question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":846,"file_id":1,"item_index":845,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.42,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S2co9AhkoU","forecast":0.42,"searches":["none"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Hard to predict. But harder to achieve in less than 6 months unless we know a bit about it by now.   But resolution is also contradictory  IMHO:   This market will resolve to Yes if a cat memecoin other than HOBBES  Keycat  POPCAT  Shark Cat  MEW  and TOSHI reaches $1b before they do. Otherwise  this market will resolve to No.   If no cat memecoin reaches $1b between Apr 7 and December 31  2024  11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to Yes  and all other markets in the group will resolve to No.   <b>If no cat coin reaches 1bn  then shouldnt qn resolve No? </b>   Im basing forecast on assumption that qn should resolve no if none of the cat coins move to 1bn. Else  I need to be on the higher end of 50%","consulted_urls":["none"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a535d2884e85a0fb3c95a87d06c7efede81727a540b339fcf54f4fdf3d531fa2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2co9AhkoU","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688131,"question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":847,"file_id":1,"item_index":846,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","source":"polymarket","user_id":"Sg4x84spDg","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Going with 0 after Popcat claimed the crown","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"4d3aae1774ead941bc68c02ec28afc6564ea3b3ec8756606d7ecb5fc2da5504d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg4x84spDg","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688131,"question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":848,"file_id":1,"item_index":847,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"POPCAT won","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d0db9d59f1712d390dad44791553518c5a648b4542ba4007cf3bc0afcc5fc17e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688131,"question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":849,"file_id":1,"item_index":848,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","source":"polymarket","user_id":"SIeeNsXE1j","forecast":0.05,"searches":["cat memecoin","mog coin"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity] POPCAT is on a tear and sitting at $955M market cap right now (8:31 AM MST  July 21). Polymarket had it resolved NO  but its disputed... not sure why theyd show it past $1B when the charts dont...","consulted_urls":["https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/mog-coin","https://coincodex.com/crypto/mog-coin/price-prediction/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"feb9c04c30cc3971e83cd6370b7955baf81d6d8f188e638724b5b0d89c1e9485","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SIeeNsXE1j","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688131,"question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":850,"file_id":1,"item_index":849,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.6,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S3X40UQlAj","forecast":0.6,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I know absolutely nothing about the memecoin market  but given that the question lists no less than 7 such coins that have already reached a market cap of 1b $  it cant be such an absurd threshhold...","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"360922cd765f4637bcd129a409deff0f81561464af2c3eab2d017a0a26f6813b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3X40UQlAj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688131,"question_id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":851,"file_id":1,"item_index":850,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"0x81bb9ebd9312790810d3d40ee6545d97a8cbaee3233959b3e2bb4c37604e5e82","platform":"polymarket","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.001,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"0x81bb9ebd9312790810d3d40ee6545d97a8cbaee3233959b3e2bb4c37604e5e82","source":"polymarket","user_id":"S3bbH6xnAb","forecast":0.001,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity] No chance.   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Vermont_gubernatorial_election","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"8956140172aea1a9a02a2fd8bce2df92cac33f56b5b7dd093ebe366a5378f91e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3bbH6xnAb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"resolved","linked_events":[{"source":"polymarket","uid":"0x81bb9ebd9312790810d3d40ee6545d97a8cbaee3233959b3e2bb4c37604e5e82","method":"exact_venue_id","status":"confirmed"}],"split_group":"polymarket:0x81bb9ebd9312790810d3d40ee6545d97a8cbaee3233959b3e2bb4c37604e5e82","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":688113,"question_id":"0x81bb9ebd9312790810d3d40ee6545d97a8cbaee3233959b3e2bb4c37604e5e82","platform":"polymarket","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-11-05","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":887,"file_id":1,"item_index":886,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"20895","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.05,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Super-unpopular mobilization in the next 5 months? As long as they can pay people from the provinces  people from Africa  desperate fanatics of all kinds etc. wages they get nowhere else (for almost certainly dying  but who cares?) Putin will avoid this at all costs. Only possible reason for yes would be Russia running out of the above mentioned human material (perhaps their view  not mine).","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"57e7efb75c2e17fb4a30fb2585769539ae7a72ad23ddf4007294fd1e72db41f6","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:20895","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687849,"question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":888,"file_id":1,"item_index":887,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.04,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"20895","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SXXYp0Pfba","forecast":0.04,"searches":["[redacted to maintain anonymity]"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity] It would be too late for this season. Why deal with the political fallout until 2025 if the decision is made that it is necessary. If Trump wins  this is not a guarantee that Zelensky immediately comes to the bargaining table. The Baltics  Poland  Romania  Czech Republic and some other committed allies could continue to support Ukraine and even step up support troops inside Ukraine. Part of what keeps countries like Poland officially out of sending more troops to at least help secure Western Ukraine  is a need to keep NATO from splintering. Regardless of the results of the US election  a mobilisation before 2025 is only adding problems  not helping Russia.","consulted_urls":["[redacted to maintain anonymity]"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"fcc40b1c32f730e06961b2f6e75e25a84788010fe0baf006a43e3ec6219ff4c0","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SXXYp0Pfba","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:20895","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687849,"question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":889,"file_id":1,"item_index":888,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"20895","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"See articles.","consulted_urls":["https://theins.ru/en/news/270999","https://www.1lurer.am/en/2024/05/25/Peskov-commented-on-FT-s-information-about-possible-mobilization-in-Russia/1130605"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"190e7e5a1c5611d95790332af840758b219ecfcca0f13e397e80845620de4057","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:20895","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687849,"question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":890,"file_id":1,"item_index":889,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.09,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"20895","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SsEu23bmu9","forecast":0.09,"searches":["Russia mobilization","Russia Ukraine troop numbers"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Updating down a bit from reading comments- Russia seems to have sufficient manpower.","consulted_urls":["https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-mobilization-in-russia-can-occur-more-openly-with-election-over/","https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-vows-no-new-mobilisation-335000-sign-up-fight-2023-10-03/","https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-outnumbered-outgunned-ground-down-by-relentless-russia-2024-02-21/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b6f63c33a29e7d5d7bb8570c0a25ca282fc79975310c9a255563b1eec024abc4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsEu23bmu9","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:20895","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687849,"question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":891,"file_id":1,"item_index":890,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"20895","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"It does not seem like Russia currently has a manpower problem. Mobilization would likely only occur if there is a big Ukranian breakthrough or big Russian offensive  neither of which seem likely between now and the end of the year.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d835ee093f286a1d290d8a93d376c9665e2224fa454f8e18ea877094f3c1998e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:20895","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687849,"question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":892,"file_id":1,"item_index":891,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"20895","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SE9oSfk4nV","forecast":0.03,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"174e0e73524642de0b20d44d064623284d183e1ed5183120ded2bbced3fe63bf","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SE9oSfk4nV","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:20895","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687849,"question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":893,"file_id":1,"item_index":892,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"20895","source":"metaculus","user_id":"Sg4x84spDg","forecast":0.05,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"LIttle incentive for Putin to start a second mobilisation  both in terms of the domestic political situation and the current military situation.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"bafdec80b17d5d469f2cd996e460d16147ab93a86bde2b07d3cc3907ac14f1a6","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg4x84spDg","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:20895","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687849,"question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":894,"file_id":1,"item_index":893,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"20895","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S488gnM8HQ","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Ample force generation from 1st wave of mobilization and contract volunteers.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"31864bf6af73376a885be958a953413a7b69620e3a83390835bac104c89620a4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S488gnM8HQ","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:20895","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687849,"question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":895,"file_id":1,"item_index":894,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"20895","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Unlikely this year  let see after the election","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a625a54dc54c1fefa8b7d0aadbfe76f67c695ba6a4d61fe06faeeafab371c53a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:20895","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687849,"question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":896,"file_id":1,"item_index":895,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.13,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"20895","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SsuHJKpbpe","forecast":0.13,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"A public mobilization would be unpopular. More importantly  an announcement of a public mobilization would be unpopular. Russia has been successfully mobilizing a large number of soldiers both by using press gangs as well incentives. This has been working so far and they have been meeting their quotas. While this is slower than a mobilization it is enough at present.   Important to note that Russia does not appear to be worried about their troop numbers. They are still using meatgrinder tactics  This is due to the quality of the troops they have been mobilizing as well as their low SES.   Thus the status quo is beneficial for the next few months. They will have the annual conscription in Sep which should fill in the holes.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6888a7e390ba09ea8dad2a0df37f0adf9fbad5a38141dab6158677ecf62020a3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsuHJKpbpe","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:20895","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687849,"question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":897,"file_id":1,"item_index":896,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"20895","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":0.1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"With Trump now a clear favorite for US presidency  I think Putin will now play for time and slow play any major moves with Ukraine until after the US election.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"fd53618efd73575522039630601d7ae18df547a7e1db18ef7c045c8d9f4d0584","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:20895","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687849,"question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":898,"file_id":1,"item_index":897,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"20895","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.05,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Wait and see for now. By US election time its going to be the middle of the conscription season so there wont be organizational bandwidth. If Dems win  I could imagine this in early 2025 but even then  the system clearly got scared the first time.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a2a98334f86a5d771434926acf773e25261695dad469197b38ee75c654921105","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:20895","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687849,"question_id":"20895","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":899,"file_id":1,"item_index":898,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17179","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S3bbH6xnAb","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Money solves most problems.   https://www.business.com/articles/smb-budget-for-cybersecurity/","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"32d9221a5d3cf51a4f93be929471fb88a4dd83e777a0938a1de7ef7b817373fd","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3bbH6xnAb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17179","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687838,"question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":901,"file_id":1,"item_index":900,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17179","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Even in todays Crowdstrike failure (which could have been a cyberattack and could have cost 1B and could have involved some degree of AI automation) did even the looniest mention AI as a possible culprit  because they dont and will not have the agency  nor the capability.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"bfa1717349d409f4003376c6e11552d70600fbcbf97890088e46c007a84dfbb2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17179","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687838,"question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":903,"file_id":1,"item_index":902,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17179","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Only a little more than 5 months to go. Every man and his dog tried it for years  and nothing like this has happened yet or is in sight. 20 times 0.02 percent is still rounded down to zero.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b50e6bb33c527fc1a77bc3fb6691b0015760b64a3c83060508b7df56dbb6f60c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17179","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687838,"question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":904,"file_id":1,"item_index":903,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17179","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SXXYp0Pfba","forecast":0,"searches":["risk of AI attack on infrastructure"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"It is less than 0.5. The attacks listed did not come close to $1B. It is not impossible  but would require a massively high value target or many lower value targets and they would have to be significantly vulnerable. Then the attack would have to meet the qualifications listed and a decision made to go public that the attack was primarily an AI attack. There are less than 6. months. Russian has caused problems  but such a large attack is likely to provoke a response  led by the US. An Iran or NK group could try to do this but what would be their advantage of making it AI when they have humans  unless they believe the AI would not allow it to be traced back to them. Why make an attack on that scale for ransom? Too large of a ransom is likely to draw a massive response. I am skeptical that a truly autonomous AI will initiate such an attack without being noticed in the next 6 months. I expect the possibility to eventually materialise. I searched the links in the question and searched the dollar amounts. I also search DHS security intelligence. [redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17179/infrastructure-disaster-from-ai-before-2025/","https://purplesec.us/security-insights/killnet-ddos-airport-websites/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_Pipeline_ransomware_attack","https://securityintelligence.com/news/dhs-ai-security-guidelines-critical-infrastructure/#"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"44ea78ed0fb6f56bd0affd501e743f8631e0292771348f275c857884f188118c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SXXYp0Pfba","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17179","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687838,"question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":905,"file_id":1,"item_index":904,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17179","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SnOyJtNds8","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Very unlikely. Short timeframe. Large damages.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"bef58fc98273ca15e1556f6882438d5b9f07184fc909769658cda6401cf706a0","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnOyJtNds8","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17179","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687838,"question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":906,"file_id":1,"item_index":905,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.001,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17179","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S2s1t6Uzpa","forecast":0.001,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Extremely unlikely","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"849cd257af9e5777447bd5a76bc893bad5054facbd9a6e7065d4eebaf44a7e00","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2s1t6Uzpa","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17179","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687838,"question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":907,"file_id":1,"item_index":906,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.001,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17179","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.001,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Too many things need to happen  all low probability.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"bbad9e1168bad936e4404eabeedbe534507577f760f18fe94b79a899d18fe961","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17179","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687838,"question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":908,"file_id":1,"item_index":907,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.001,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17179","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.001,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Timeframe is too short - looking at future years this question becomes more interesting.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"febd6574fdce1a73439c568ec9b6c0e3cd533234a62f7e430d4a5c8794c6b2ad","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17179","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687838,"question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":909,"file_id":1,"item_index":908,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.001,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17179","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SE9oSfk4nV","forecast":0.001,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I do not think AI is there yet to conduct such attack  from the other hand a lot what is not AI seem to be attributed to AI [redacted to maintain anonymity] but probably not by subject matter experts who would have final say in attributing attack. Also bar for 1B seems to be quite high.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"8dcd5cf6a7fd128e97d3ffac8d0a663a9e484c0e84fc38cc8badf356dd6bb1e6","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SE9oSfk4nV","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17179","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687838,"question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":910,"file_id":1,"item_index":909,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.005,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17179","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S2co9AhkoU","forecast":0.005,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity] it becomes very harder to achieve a 1bn loss. Most countries will have DR setup and even if they didnt  unless there is massive compensation  might not have a lot of advantage to actually mention that they had a 1bn loss as it will be embarrassing loss of face.   <1% for unpleasant surprises. I just realized that we have decimal probabilities. nice.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"efe9f6a3b089f24245215745fc65efc9f6bd4ce4090e2c8f4e8fb0d48d35cc92","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2co9AhkoU","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17179","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687838,"question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":911,"file_id":1,"item_index":910,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17179","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SOca8sKBtd","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"This is an easy ZERO based on the fact that available AIs are not nearly powerful enough yet.  And of those that are most powerful  very few have access to any significant or critical systems.   WAY too early.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7e00c29f3468daa9ab85f20209a920a565b63f897b898723e225d53baade5c1a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SOca8sKBtd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17179","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687838,"question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":912,"file_id":1,"item_index":911,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17179","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S488gnM8HQ","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"No extant AI has the ability to interface with the real world in a manner to cause such damage as stipulated in the question by expiration.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"adb36430be9af0b97fa637704b5852ab128d49300b4883b4d51184b2baf4e901","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S488gnM8HQ","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17179","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687838,"question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":913,"file_id":1,"item_index":912,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.005,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17179","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.005,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Very unlikely","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"22b7d6150197a41994bc9f685ce9cbe1795473929c16bfd9848fd27153e96d1f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17179","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687838,"question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":914,"file_id":1,"item_index":913,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17179","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SON6ytut03","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"This is not something AI can do now","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"2a0f42bec0b859ec8fc3391657347343a586cacc260fb9602625d2b3a6bba88d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SON6ytut03","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17179","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687838,"question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":915,"file_id":1,"item_index":914,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17179","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SsuHJKpbpe","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"There has been no AI cyberattacks. Any possible AI cyberattacks would be treated as a valuable zero day and would not be burnt. The threshold of 1b is high. It is especially high as the target has an incentive to hide the victim.   It has been well known that the vast majority of cyberattacks go unreported unless there is a statutory requirement. Said statues are not widespread.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c32509ac22adbfa89aaae1b34d49cc69b71a7580d1a0cc8fed93cf218c157130","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsuHJKpbpe","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17179","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687838,"question_id":"17179","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2024-12-31","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":916,"file_id":1,"item_index":915,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8599","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8599","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SZINl91huS","forecast":0.05,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"There may be more warnings added to the label  and there will definitely be price negotiations between now and then  and there may even be another more effective drug released by 2027  but it dont see this approval being revoked.  Unless users quickly start coming down with pancreatic cancer by the boatload  it just wont happen  especially by 2027.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"399627ac29f9af523a8770f11dabcb819ebd4b0f803ca2b5a9191238f30b3506","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SZINl91huS","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8599","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":917,"file_id":1,"item_index":916,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8599","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.003,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8599","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.003,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I could see it happening eventually but 2027 is too early. Too many people are in love with the idea of taking a pill or an injection instead of reducing food intake (and this includes decision-makers!) and 2-3 years is not enough to accumulate good evidence of detrimental long term effects.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0e7d97f36ff1fe12c6c3e44ab821a4493cbab94aeceabecdd94a66af6b5881db","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8599","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":918,"file_id":1,"item_index":917,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8599","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8599","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Obesity is not a priority disease unless one believes the marketing. Good alternatives exist and there would be no reason to rush this.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"1e3b7d6510e39b3e95cd687bd71be4e4d07dea2cdf22ed5a466aa49ea80642ad","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8599","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":919,"file_id":1,"item_index":918,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8599","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8599","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S2s1t6Uzpa","forecast":0.05,"searches":["drug recalls safety","drug withdrawals safety","semaglitude wegovy safety"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Going slightly lower  after reading the comments","consulted_urls":["https://www.lightfootlawdc.com/blogs/fda-drug-recall-statistics/","https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/drug-recalls","https://www.fda.gov/safety/recalls-market-withdrawals-safety-alerts","https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31584381/","https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4085091/","https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26843061/","https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/009286150103500134","https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/why-your-cardiologist-may-prescribe-semaglutide-wegovy","https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2307563","https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/overview/wegovy-epar-medicine-overview_en.pdf"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"fc133eb4f66a7ced4d3d6c0bdc0b8727abc9ad63ae6da8ca324deab5c972de22","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2s1t6Uzpa","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8599","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":920,"file_id":1,"item_index":919,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8599","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.002,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8599","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.002,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Update","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9c88ce4cefff72927df2af379060fd0bac0ee84e275f10f9dfefcfce40983bd8","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8599","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":921,"file_id":1,"item_index":920,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8599","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.025,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8599","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.025,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Dropping a bit more on timeframe issues brought up in other comments  most likely there will be intermediate steps before complete withdrawal.","consulted_urls":["https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/05/09/527575055/one-third-of-new-drugs-had-safety-problems-after-fda-approval","https://www.mayoclinic.org/drugs-supplements/semaglutide-subcutaneous-route/side-effects/drg-20406730?p=1"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e72181cb4cb1c1267b98fc3da937ed01a83f33694be53ead28de47c388dedd50","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8599","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":922,"file_id":1,"item_index":921,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8599","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8599","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SE9oSfk4nV","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Following metaculus  It seems too good to be true to not have significant side effects but most probably will not happen before 2027","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"00cdefaa57851cfeae2feb2e45842db91bdaea0ed7a3a0257390a5964ea8f695","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SE9oSfk4nV","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8599","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":923,"file_id":1,"item_index":922,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8599","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8599","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SOca8sKBtd","forecast":0.01,"searches":["semaglutide side effects","semaglutide cancer","semaglutide cardio"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Dropping to 1% using the same rationale as before.","consulted_urls":["https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014","https://www.mskcc.org/news/cancer-benefits-and-risks-from-ozempic-wegovy-and-other-weight-loss-drugs","https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2307563"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"8d8cb03bfc48cb40fee6351011e3174cfbce2f857ee75c8b576c8d89d2d3589b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SOca8sKBtd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8599","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":924,"file_id":1,"item_index":923,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8599","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8599","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.02,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Few adverse effects were reported but all the patient recovered.   https://go.drugbank.com/drugs/DB13928","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b29cd8b41e3f09fc898bb019a170d07529b68f2fb5ab2b9b8e684cba98cb08a8","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8599","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":925,"file_id":1,"item_index":924,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8599","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.001,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8599","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":0.001,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"There are side effects and long term it probably does not improve metabolic health unless other lifestyle and nutrition changes happen but it has too much momentum at present and would take a lot before the negatives would outweigh the positives. Maybe a recommendation/prhibition on how long you should take it","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"5dd75e6c8cddbb91845fd7e0ff2ae718d223d28be0920f0116761641036992f3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8599","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":926,"file_id":1,"item_index":925,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8599","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8599","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SgF5s3i4bt","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"No","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b42579b630242731090185843d4f8776d46d03995ac30fab6c8ebbd406f13055","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SgF5s3i4bt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8599","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":927,"file_id":1,"item_index":926,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8745","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.2,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8745","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SPxBFWGyEb","forecast":0.2,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Although the Black Death and the Plague of Justinian may have killed more than 10% of the population (though there is huge uncertainty around this)  I think its unlikely that a natural pandemic would be the cause of such a catastrophe in modern times. Natural pandemics now have competitors (due to advances in synthetic biology) and we have vaccines and therapeutics that would be likely to limit the death toll before it reaches 800 million or so. In contrast  an engineered pathogen could be designed to evade countermeasures so as to produce a large death toll; evolution by natural selection has no foresight and most zoonotic pathogens do not result in such large death tolls. A malicious actor also has other  easier options available to them if they want to cause morbidity and mortality on a small scale; they are disproportionately likely to turn to biological warfare (which is very difficult  as state actors have found) if they want to cause large-scale or apocalyptic damage.   Therefore  while naturally occurring pandemics are more common  man-made pandemics are disproportionately likely to result in large-scale death and destruction.","consulted_urls":["https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"89cccdbba5d9f00382cfadc3239264c4d693d3ed171d84c4391687a12c28be57","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPxBFWGyEb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8745","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":928,"file_id":1,"item_index":927,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8745","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.2,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8745","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.2,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I think  we should agree  that this type of question-asking clarity is sub-standard. The question resolves positively if a global catastrophe occurs resulting from naturally occurring pandemic(s) that claim at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100  and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Positive resolution requires there to be a high degree of confidence that the relevant pathogens have natural origins  as opossed to being synthesized  edited or enhanced using Gain of Function techniques. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.. F*CK them with that ambiguous. I interpret that as no  forget it in that case  but I don´t know.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a24f60fa0786f29375a4006e138de423004d008c90c77a9493c6b53145607559","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8745","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":929,"file_id":1,"item_index":928,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8745","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.2,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8745","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SUpgMvejGk","forecast":0.2,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"IF it happens","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"32e2f6e745403d0973ec30145ab378c68d6824d6934358e69fdc14404480d3fe","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SUpgMvejGk","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8745","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":930,"file_id":1,"item_index":929,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8745","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8745","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SnOyJtNds8","forecast":0.1,"searches":["spanish flu worldwide population decrease"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"I did too. I should try to find my p(die) from there. I think it was in 4% range  but I dont remember","consulted_urls":["https://ourworldindata.org/spanish-flu-largest-influenza-pandemic-in-history"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"2ead59b69973be26bc5ecf4c7a64060f4705cfd25e0d705f5f0e3742aa4b2dd4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnOyJtNds8","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8745","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":931,"file_id":1,"item_index":930,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8745","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.08,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8745","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SsEu23bmu9","forecast":0.08,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Dropping this slightly as I think more about other possibilities; nuclear war and an engineered pandemic each seem like they should be considerably more likely to be responsible for such a global catastrophe.","consulted_urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c8e22064c79b2992718159dd43ed14153cb5fb98874db92dde9509b9e48ccb5a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsEu23bmu9","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8745","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":932,"file_id":1,"item_index":931,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8745","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8745","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S2co9AhkoU","forecast":0.03,"searches":["none"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"that is how the resolution criteria is defined.   (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)  [redacted to maintain anonymity]","consulted_urls":["none"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"fde64f7ea766ff6dc9b3c4126fdeaf6752d08c0f5c641eebb60008eee93a6c9c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2co9AhkoU","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8745","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":933,"file_id":1,"item_index":932,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8745","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.0003,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8745","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S488gnM8HQ","forecast":0.0003,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Covid would not have met the Qs definition of catastrophe.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"22daf1fb78ba1dd72866abafe66c053b93e6cec2301ed4f95351574e0af3b7f5","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S488gnM8HQ","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8745","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":934,"file_id":1,"item_index":933,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8745","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.15,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8745","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.15,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"A natural occurring pandemic would have to potential for a global catastrophe","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"c864e90b98fb56b4cba5d6a531ccc145254039aafc19e4439b3ca50555a9276b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8745","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":935,"file_id":1,"item_index":934,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8745","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.002,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8745","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":0.002,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Very low probability that natural pandemic could cause this level of death  unless it was preceded by something else eg nuclear  massive climate change","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"35c7c2ca74de0ceffac027cca45a99eb0843369c4f0ad8af27f921db66f1c7bb","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8745","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":936,"file_id":1,"item_index":935,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"8745","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.15,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"8745","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.15,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"All comparable  IMO lower but yes  part of the remaining 85%","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"2938619c2b0b510174efb69b316e0ddc3b396605902701f597a1fb6caef7d02b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:8745","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":937,"file_id":1,"item_index":936,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17432","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.0001,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17432","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.0001,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"As a long time AI skeptic  I continue to believe that the current crop of AIs are all mere parrots with fantastic pattern recognition but zero inherent understanding or even logic. Right now they are struggling with advanced math problems for high school student and in a year they are not going to make the magical leap from that to the most difficult problems known to mathematicians.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"13a4488072e5f36aa92232912a0aeffb4b4e095eb584664b5214ca036f044d01","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17432","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687841,"question_id":"17432","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-06-30","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":938,"file_id":1,"item_index":937,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17432","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17432","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"These problems need design capabilities far from any envisioned task solving abilities models have or will have in the near future.   From this weeks sota paper on MATH:   Mathematical reasoning is recognized as a critical long-chain reasoning ability in Large Language Models (LLMs). This task is particularly challenging due to the often extensive chain of thought required  which can include numerous reasoning steps. Any error in these steps can lead to an incorrect final answer.   Step-DPO: Step-wise Preference Optimization for Long-chain Reasoning of LLMs   (btw  very good method for identifying small errors  but that is not enough)","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"df189134436ce6b6c7f1df50b29ac2204a04810f7eb48baf725be0b33cb5e464","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17432","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687841,"question_id":"17432","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-06-30","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":939,"file_id":1,"item_index":938,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17432","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17432","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"A Millennium Prize Problem solved before 1 July 25 by anyone  or by anything? No.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"cf83e8ce44e70789626d8818985efd2744edadf24ae542fd1d68563cdeb3f141","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17432","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687841,"question_id":"17432","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-06-30","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":941,"file_id":1,"item_index":940,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17432","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17432","source":"metaculus","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I think this is unlikely with LLMs alone. Of course  the AI companies are working on other things besides LLMs  but 1 year seems a bit short for a breakthrough.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"6691a635bf7fbedde2c55624d78bd0de70984a42d2472217906d8d0ab166bf27","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17432","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687841,"question_id":"17432","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-06-30","resolved_to":0,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
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{"id":950,"file_id":1,"item_index":949,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17826","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.45,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17826","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SbZAVaBSo6","forecast":0.45,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"The question is not particularly clear and the term “support” might have different connotations. In this context  it probably indicates the fact that Threads has to be completely integrated with ActivityPub.   Meta started testing an ActivityPub integration in late 2023. Since then  they opened some beta functions to users from a restricted number of countries. How long could the whole process last? One of the developers wrote at the end of 2023 “I expect all of this to take the better part of a year  and to roll out in stages.” The base rate for any project to be completed on time is abysmal  therefore I would at the very minimum the full deployment to take more than one year. This is lower than the current consensus on Metaculus  but it is also worth mentioning that there are now 5 months left before 2025.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"57d9110033cb7b135f60cc08f2d7d7f84be2028080b1486f4f8757a19052343e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SbZAVaBSo6","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17826","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":951,"file_id":1,"item_index":950,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17826","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.6,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17826","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.6,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Meta is notoriously jealous of admitting 3d party applications  and it is unclear if ActivityPub will give them access to all the information they collect  so delays would not surprise me. Same energy as linux on windows  promised and delayed for many years until it became a necessity.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ae7ef53aa74c3c4362679481c07089b92f52cb74d618940d231a69a7ae0687ff","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17826","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":952,"file_id":1,"item_index":951,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17826","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17826","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S7aWY2TYGI","forecast":1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"1. Unless Im missing something  this already resolved as a yes. Announcement from Meta in March 2024: <br>   https://engineering.fb.com/2024/03/21/networking-traffic/threads-has-entered-the-fediverse/   FTA: Threads has entered the fediverse! As part of our beta experience  now available in a few countries  Threads users aged 18+ with public profiles can now choose to share their Threads posts to other ActivityPub-compliant servers. <br>   2. From June 25  2024 CNET article:   https://www.cnet.com/tech/services-and-software/threads-is-diving-deeper-into-the-fediverse-heres-what-to-know/ <br>   FTA: Fediverse sharing is now available for Threads users in more than 100 countries. Heres how to take advantage of the new setting...Threads is expanding its presence in the Fediverse. Threads users over 18 with public accounts will be able to join  share content and interact more widely in the Fediverse  Meta said on Tuesday  with the change taking place in more than 100 countries....The Fediverse is a collection of social media platforms that can talk to each other. Meta announced on March 21 that Threads had joining the Fediverse  with an initial beta rolling out to users in select countries. Now  with Threads expanded access and its more than 130 million monthly active users  the service is introducing millions of people to the Fediverse. <br>   3.. From Instagram  on signing up for the ActivityPub-powered fediverse feature: <br>   https://help.instagram.com/760878905943039 <br>   FTA: Sharing to the fediverse is only available for Threads users who: <br>       Created a Threads profile <br>       Are 18 or older <br>       Have public profiles <br>       Are located outside the European Region <br>   4. Technically  the resolution criteria states  Resolves to the outcome of the question on Metaculus  and I suppose if whoever posted the question just ignores it (theres only three stale comments)  or decides to have some fun by entering a no resolution just to get a reaction  this could resolve as a no  but Im going to ignore that angle.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"67bed038e8b18fd98be060d278c87053ba4d1ba101a4d8242370d128e803a966","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S7aWY2TYGI","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17826","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":953,"file_id":1,"item_index":952,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17826","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.8,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17826","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SqSCtDbxAl","forecast":0.8,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I guess this hasnt resolved because it is still considered a beta-experience??   I think Ill stay at 80% because it seems to be a large beta experience. And that may indicate they feel confident about it?","consulted_urls":["https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/13/24000120/threads-meta-activitypub-test-mastodon","https://engineering.fb.com/2024/03/21/networking-traffic/threads-has-entered-the-fediverse/","https://www.theverge.com/23686584/twitter-alternative-social-media-platforms-mastodon-bluesky-activitypub-protocol"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b2d4c1a7a0b4162389108fb84859cae53c67b49c37baa5518f507ee85192f277","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SqSCtDbxAl","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17826","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":954,"file_id":1,"item_index":953,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17826","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.92,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17826","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.92,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Threads is expanding its presence in the Fediverse. Threads users over 18 with public accounts will be able to join  share content and interact more widely in the Fediverse  Meta said on Tuesday  with the change taking place in more than 100 countries.   Source: https://www.cnet.com/tech/services-and-software/threads-is-diving-deeper-into-the-fediverse-heres-what-to-know/   Thats a yes?   But not completely? https://www.techdirt.com/2024/06/27/meta-moves-to-more-directly-connect-to-activitypub-but-is-it-really-open/","consulted_urls":["https://www.cnet.com/tech/services-and-software/threads-is-diving-deeper-into-the-fediverse-heres-what-to-know/","https://www.techdirt.com/2024/06/27/meta-moves-to-more-directly-connect-to-activitypub-but-is-it-really-open/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7729b24a52ee57f7defde542a1b24e6c503e2de38bbe4d4adad916fa4bb7ffa8","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17826","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":955,"file_id":1,"item_index":954,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17826","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.8,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17826","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.8,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"https://techcrunch.com/2024/06/25/all-threads-users-can-now-share-to-the-open-social-web-aka-the-fediverse/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFc36GYVpH4McfVAEqSar6cqORqWTpclDMIozKenPIwBzP1w0gyTKbBudOxjjv9JmVjMosK4WudmgkOHNAS8LuLDxPlivUbbbYEkNdx9DTZY6NcQEdRjjfVScy0Y-vQ1YIOCwGbJGGghiX1mgxgy0y3BTCHIbW5TNWHJVTCJjjLi   Looks like this is happening","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9653365464a80f028d1c2411e5e7f2905b3b83adaae746a9c4ab28e0f2f92e8c","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17826","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":956,"file_id":1,"item_index":955,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"17826","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.91,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"17826","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SgF5s3i4bt","forecast":0.91,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Finally something wonky enough I know zero about it.   From the comments on the question  Instagram supports this and the app is new so there will be lots of changes in this app this year. So I would simply extremize towards yes from the user consensus on Metaculus.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"67c9060f702c02cec7ebee4959291a146162f00411c536f28c87d18770651780","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SgF5s3i4bt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:17826","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":957,"file_id":1,"item_index":956,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"12813","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.07,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"12813","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SnBEoonCrb","forecast":0.07,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Tsunamis are generally difficult to predict and even if that were the case they might affect highly populated countries where evacuation might be slow and limited. On the other hand  the 50k fatality bar is high  and there has only been one event in modern history  that meets this criterion.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7c112953b066257442eaf008b408bd00f72ca3fb5b879adb6795556794723fc0","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnBEoonCrb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:12813","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":958,"file_id":1,"item_index":957,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"12813","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"12813","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SS6AZPsK20","forecast":0.01,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"OK  thanks! Two flukes  one >250 years ago.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d23d794cbfdc08e09435cced23d2e15adcca201c90f5ee8083adb84dfb61cd6f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SS6AZPsK20","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:12813","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":959,"file_id":1,"item_index":958,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"12813","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"12813","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.05,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity] Seattle  LA  Lima  Guayaquil  some japanese cities etc. would have a hard time evacuating  but tsunamis are rare and when they do happen the probability that they directly hit a large city is even lower. Otherwise warning systems do offer a life saving chance not available in the past.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"8d9671d71b2c2cc30ab1b9cf6fad28ee243b5c0900d1895f9d83b27cde85720e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:12813","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":960,"file_id":1,"item_index":959,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"12813","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"12813","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S7aWY2TYGI","forecast":0.03,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Adjusting","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"aa08abb874ba79da5a0bc8bb16222471a6121a61b343e1168b6f5b160a8a1d3e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S7aWY2TYGI","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:12813","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":961,"file_id":1,"item_index":960,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"12813","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.08,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"12813","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.08,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Nice find. Perhaps a compromise between your 1 and my 8 percent might be a good idea :-)","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7e661cebe79dce6943dfebbeaa76185aeca2d0b8ea65453c84756ee117b7c5a4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:12813","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":962,"file_id":1,"item_index":961,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"12813","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"12813","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SqSCtDbxAl","forecast":0.25,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"[redacted to maintain anonymity] The resolution criteria is very high  so Im bringing my forecast down. But I continue to believe the risk is increasing due to populations moving to coastlines around the world.","consulted_urls":["https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/why-are-we-having-so-many-earthquakes-has-naturally-occurring-earthquake-activity-been","https://www.sms-tsunami-warning.com/pages/tsunami-history","https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/08/climate-change-trigger-earthquakes-volcanoes/#:~:text=Climate%20change%20could%20cause%20more that%20are%20already%20seismically%20active.","https://www.prb.org/resources/ripple-effects-population-and-coastal-regions/#:~:text=In%20many%20countries%2C%20populations%20in degrade%20coastal%20and%20marine%20ecosystems.&text=A%20number%20of%20worrying%20trends%20are%20already%20visible."],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"1d0235b4be058a4e18e9d129239d7457c04558f2f909f7a6510acd8ab094da61","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SqSCtDbxAl","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:12813","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":963,"file_id":1,"item_index":962,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"12813","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.01,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"12813","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S2s1t6Uzpa","forecast":0.01,"searches":["tsunami deaths","most deadly tsunamis"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Yeah  as I said  the OWID data seem puzzling (they even claim 56K deaths in 2023!)","consulted_urls":["https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/natural-hazards/tsunamis-earthquakes-volcanoes/tsunamis/recent-significant-events","https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazel/view/hazards/tsunami/event-search","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tsunamis","https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/tsunami-deaths","https://www.discovermagazine.com/planet-earth/5-worst-tsunamis-in-history","https://www.australiangeographic.com.au/topics/science-environment/2011/03/the-10-most-destructive-tsunamis-in-history/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"4f73f3e919ef7a7cc03aaf5ae9e9641f8a23d2806e1481d1a3fddd6e5159e7e8","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2s1t6Uzpa","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:12813","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":964,"file_id":1,"item_index":963,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"12813","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.08,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"12813","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SsEu23bmu9","forecast":0.08,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"These are very rare  and there are only six years to go.   The 2004 earthquake was supposedly the third most powerful earthquake recorded.   There were slightly less severe earthquakes in Sumatra in 2005 and 2012 which did not cause disastrous tsunamis. And  geographically  most places are not heavily populated.   However  upon review  it doesnt seem like even the best warning systems leave very little time to evacuate if there is a tsunami.","consulted_urls":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_and_tsunami"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0b674e8de058a8b23f9d82c823233921ddf8638a4796e0ee8a1d8f62965754bb","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsEu23bmu9","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:12813","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":965,"file_id":1,"item_index":964,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"12813","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"12813","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.05,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Correcting forecast error - not sure it was registering 90 for my prediction here.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"43bc76fb104db0a45d7bf83affa73a30fbbd2d2c03161c8913595f6d92a43f8f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:12813","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":966,"file_id":1,"item_index":965,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"12813","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.15,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"12813","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.15,"searches":["All the warning systems in the world wouldnt help the people in Seattle if there were another earthquake on the Seattle Fault. History shows that this is a low-probability event","but increased populations probably cancel out improved warning systems."],"direction":null,"reasoning":"All the warning systems in the world wouldnt help the people in Seattle if there were another earthquake on the Seattle Fault. History shows that this is a low-probability event  but increased populations probably cancel out improved warning systems. Even if this just a once in a century event  we would have a 6% chance before 2030.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"66781211b86e0e171d9abce637b12fabaaca7070b30d362636fe8a9b8097937b","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:12813","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":967,"file_id":1,"item_index":966,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"12813","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.04,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"12813","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S2co9AhkoU","forecast":0.04,"searches":["None","checked google to understand tsunami patterns."],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Tsunamis happen reasonably regularly. But not all of them lead to deaths. 50k is a high bar. There have been roughly 5 tsunamis in the last 24 years and only 1 crosses the threshold. A quick check tells me from 1900-2024  there are only a handful (3) which will cross threshold of 50K death while no of tsunamis might be ~900.   However we could be primed for one and there is a non trivial chance of that event happening.","consulted_urls":["None","checked google to understand tsunami patterns from 1900-2024"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a6b67beeec9324ca50b9dc1fb3343880c3097d4474b63878780e0e05e9427082","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2co9AhkoU","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:12813","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":968,"file_id":1,"item_index":967,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"12813","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.03,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"12813","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SOca8sKBtd","forecast":0.03,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Such events are quite rare.  The recent Tsunami that hit Japan only killed about 18.000 people.  It takes quite a lot of damage to see individual die altogether.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"83817413e01c5a8ae1d5bcfc521c0a007006f9ee3721b52b58a12fe73bb7092f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SOca8sKBtd","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:12813","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":969,"file_id":1,"item_index":968,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"12813","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.05,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"12813","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.05,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Tsunami are rare","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"7818477e94401d4eff802bedd36da156e1a81460ca8eb152e795a9b1fe1ba723","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:12813","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":970,"file_id":1,"item_index":969,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"12813","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.02,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"12813","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SsuHJKpbpe","forecast":0.02,"searches":["According to the WHO Tsunami have caused ~250k deaths over a 20y period. This includes a single event which"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"According to the WHO Tsunami have caused ~250k deaths over a 25y period. This includes a single event which would resolve. While the expected number of fatalities from a Tsunami continues to increase due to migration  this is not significant at this level.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d9cca00deffc59d1c80a03695417f115fd84a6886b740d1bfdf3d515e8fdc92a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsuHJKpbpe","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:12813","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":971,"file_id":1,"item_index":970,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"12813","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"12813","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":0,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"better warning systems  very low prbability event in this time frame versus increased coastal population. Puerto Rico trench event could possibly cause it","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ce7da8ba4a22a70aa66ba47189ef74c0e5cfea74fa44407b90126eeae7a83b4e","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:12813","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":972,"file_id":1,"item_index":971,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"12813","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.08,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"12813","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S3X40UQlAj","forecast":0.08,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"So far weve only had one such event in 2004. 2011 in Japan didnt reach 50k deaths  but Id count it as a near miss - had the tsunami hit a more densely populated region  it could have easily killed a lot more people. 1883 killed 36k officially but would almost certainly top 50k today with larger populations....so  it is not as rare as some claim.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9ec3baac7c3f040268c453c26faddec6c592bc442f8cddaaff48bc29f2a7c823","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3X40UQlAj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:12813","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":973,"file_id":1,"item_index":972,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.61,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"7444","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SnBEoonCrb","forecast":0.61,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Elon Musk is currently no. 1  and he holds an advantage of around 50 B USD over Jeff Bezos who comes in second  which is actually around 25% of Bezos own worth. This situation is pretty volatile  however Musks chances should not be far from 50% in the foreseeable future.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d8da0eefd16f51398e75b5d3a10ae1900ac2707cfba888ce00de19d896a65e14","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnBEoonCrb","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:7444","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687867,"question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":974,"file_id":1,"item_index":973,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.2,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"7444","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.2,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"of the 3 main candidates he seems the weakest due to decreasing Tesla fortunes.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ac0bb97240de47440aee03673d9c7a5b9bef3bd9f6d07f9dfb6edc2ac0bd2bf9","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:7444","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687867,"question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":975,"file_id":1,"item_index":974,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.4,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"7444","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.4,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"First of all: he might be current No 1  but he is only one out of several candidates  the time frame for this question is long  and Tesla is no longer as unique as it was. The most important point I see here is the possible future of SpaceX  and that looks quite nice. Without that I´d have him below 20%  with it  I´ll give him 40.   https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#14a6ec253d78","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"eb60bf3236c463f5ff0fb0f2892a212fdde1f2ac75d7bfbf18a7573d0fbf5c19","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:7444","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687867,"question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":976,"file_id":1,"item_index":975,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.6,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"7444","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SXXYp0Pfba","forecast":0.6,"searches":["Elon Musk current net worth","Jensen Huang","Bill Gates","Bezos","Larry Page","Tesla stock price chart","Nvidia stock price chart"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Musk $249.9  Bezos 205.2B  Bernard Arnault 190.4B  Larry Ellison 173.3  Larry Page 151.8  Gates 135.2. Jen-Hsun (Nvidia). If Tesla drops from its current 250 to 150  Musk could easily drop a spot. Jen Hsun has seen a meteoric rise  that has stayed been volatile but somewhat plateaued for a month. Considering it has gone up 157% in the last year  a similar jump could see him topple Musk. Tesla has pressure from Chinese EVs. Metaculus is at 49% I will go a little higher at 60%. Musk is playing a shrewd election calculation. He is heavily and publicly supporting Trump. If Trump wins  he will have his ear (oops  bad pun). If Trump loses  Biden is pro EV anyway. He may expand the base of people willing to buy Teslas if the Trump supporters start to see it as desirable. His cybertruck has been a laughing stock among serious off road and rural people  maybe as much based on the radical style change as lack of practical bed use of a typical work truck. This is still a tough crowd to win. He also risks a backlash being too closely associated with Trump. Musks Teslas could go the way of the Hummer if they fall out of fashion on ideological/identity purchases.","consulted_urls":["[redacted to maintain anonymity]"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"b27dcbbc884a19460079594859743bbd81b01223738152eed5a46ee3def9df64","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SXXYp0Pfba","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:7444","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687867,"question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":977,"file_id":1,"item_index":976,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.45,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"7444","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SUpgMvejGk","forecast":0.45,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"He looks to be there today. A lot of variability in the Tesla stock he holds  and there about 5 other guys who have a shot based on economic conditions. Musk dipped to $208 billion in June. Bezos and Amazon have had a much more steady rate of increase.  and Zuckerberg One year a fairly short horizon  so he is the favorite.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"30d55946ef3040662256e1560333c199f070eabe5add2960e68d0162fd2c0c4d","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SUpgMvejGk","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:7444","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687867,"question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":978,"file_id":1,"item_index":977,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.55,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"7444","source":"metaculus","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":0.55,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Better than even odds. The risks are that he is unable to get the pay package that was thrown out reinstated  or that Tesla looses significant market share to the Chinese companies.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"84d7311496ae49716d625e3b0dd9df11dd4957de579fda1c1c7a3addf84ec490","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:7444","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687867,"question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":979,"file_id":1,"item_index":978,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.64,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"7444","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SsEu23bmu9","forecast":0.64,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"#1 currently  by quite a bit.   I believe the index includes his Tesla pay package  which could be challenged in court again  but that probably wouldnt resolve by the end of 2025.   Biggest challenger is Bezos. Bezos has been selling some Amazon stock  whether for diversification  estate planning  or reinvestment into Blue Origin. Selling Amazon stock probably reduces the variance of his total net worth a year from now.","consulted_urls":["https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/","https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/billionaire-founder-sold-over-13-billion-his-companys-stock-year-alone-should-investors-be"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0f6dd26e69dcb47aa8f36cbfdb5bcbc41a27c899f674caa97058e45b9fd21a67","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsEu23bmu9","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:7444","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687867,"question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":980,"file_id":1,"item_index":979,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.6,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"7444","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.6,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Hes ~25% higher than the next figure on the list after latest pay package. Also is supporting Trump (who currently seems likely to win the election)  which may be a targeted move to keep EV subsidies (both for cars and networks) flowing. Coming in at about ~60% for now.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"9acfb464299c2a4c0030300dd4fab89a5d008147fe54dafa462a0efa61e4a79a","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:7444","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687867,"question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":981,"file_id":1,"item_index":980,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.4,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"7444","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SE9oSfk4nV","forecast":0.4,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"I think that volatility in the markets in 2024 and 2025 are risk for his fortune. Also looks like he is quite strongly betting for Trump win which might not be safest bet.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"683d70a9972a6cf447ae5371727ff3e66ce8f6cb4f71ae245e4f8023dad5f0a3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SE9oSfk4nV","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:7444","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687867,"question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":982,"file_id":1,"item_index":981,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.6,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"7444","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.6,"searches":["Teslas share price has gone up recently","wiping out the losses from earlier this year. Musk won the trial about his pay package (USD 56bn) and is number one again","USD 55bn ahead of number two.","Things can change again and Tesla has more and more competition and an somewhat outdated portfolio (re: design) but for now things are looking good for him"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"Teslas share price has gone up recently  wiping out the losses from earlier this year. Musk won the trial about his pay package (USD 56bn) and is number one again  USD 55bn ahead of number two.  Things can change again and Tesla has more and more competition and an somewhat outdated portfolio (re: design) but for now things are looking good for him","consulted_urls":["https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/jun/27/elon-musk-tesla-pay","https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"63a967ab3dec8e58be75a7c6a879260ae759d6b4edab14d0e8c4ec3a39c6a9bf","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:7444","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687867,"question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":983,"file_id":1,"item_index":982,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.25,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"7444","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.25,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Elon Musk has already lost the first place to Bernard Arnault. Looking at the graph  it looks like he is stagnating while Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg have increased dramatically in 2024 and are very close to him.","consulted_urls":["https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"67e2ebcb230016e0ffc2e4ff2d9a16b76023b06ce0bf207225205e0f5f044ddb","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:7444","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687867,"question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":984,"file_id":1,"item_index":983,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.16,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"7444","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":0.16,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Tesla annual/quarterly operating income history and growth rate from 2010 to 2024. Operating income can be defined as income after operating expenses have been deducted and before interest payments and taxes have been deducted.   Tesla operating income for the quarter ending March 31  2024 was $1.171B  a 56.04% decline year-over-year.   Tesla operating income for the twelve months ending March 31  2024 was $7.398B  a 41.83% decline year-over-year.   Tesla annual operating income for 2023 was $8.891B  a 34.89% decline from 2022.   Tesla annual operating income for 2022 was $13.656B  a 109.35% increase from 2021.   Tesla annual operating income for 2021 was $6.523B  a 227.13% increase from 2020.   Going low as I think Tesla is heading for a fall but lots of others have predicted this and been left with egg on their faces!","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f49d93c8ea59868c4e472812563a626ffc2fd5bd3ffc2402d7ec576233c2680f","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:7444","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687867,"question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":985,"file_id":1,"item_index":984,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.67,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"7444","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SgF5s3i4bt","forecast":0.67,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"inverted","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"db4cfd28416c3c648f3fcefcc421060c53bac7ffb8f5ac3f67f247f30b1894a5","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SgF5s3i4bt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:7444","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687867,"question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":986,"file_id":1,"item_index":985,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.45,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"7444","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S3X40UQlAj","forecast":0.45,"searches":["richest people in the world"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"According to the real time billionaires list he currently is the richest person in the world. This could change as it has many times in the past  depending on current stock valuations. Him  Bezos and Arnault have all been the richest for a while in the past few years","consulted_urls":["https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6583d0b3d788"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"4885c85f78246aa5ff7656e00fb615bb660494eb15a80971665b4beaa7f33134","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S3X40UQlAj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:7444","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687867,"question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":987,"file_id":1,"item_index":986,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.4,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"7444","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SwihqZyyLo","forecast":0.4,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Its not too hard to imagine a 20% relative move in TSLA vs AMZN or them both vs LVMH. Hes in the 1st now but both runners-up are close to each other and one pair has a large common risk exposure while the other is a different sectors  so the two are almost independent bets.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"ea1f32ead55a9858f69918c8fb560a11b316f42946a1261d0711439481f140e3","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SwihqZyyLo","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:7444","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":{"id":687867,"question_id":"7444","platform":"metaculus","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","resolution_date":"2025-12-31","resolved_to":1,"resolved":true,"available_by_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:29+00:00"},"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":true,"reasons":[],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":988,"file_id":1,"item_index":987,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"21918","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.9,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"21918","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SZINl91huS","forecast":0.9,"searches":["What is Indias current fertility rate?","What are the biggest disadvantages for young people in India?"],"direction":null,"reasoning":"It is currently 2.122 births per woman.  The rate of decline has been in the .95-.92 range  but last year it was only .79  therefore the rate of decline has slowed somewhat.  Projections are that this will slow to .75%.   Even using that deacceleration  the fertility rate is projected to be: 1.996 in 2032  and 1.969 in 2034.   Given lack of water  climate tragedies  and Modi  I am thinking women arent looking for a lot more children right now  and neither are their husbands. There has been a struggle to create good paying jobs for young people outside of the agricultural sector  which affects the ability to start a family for the next decade.  Educated youth are finding few opportunities to reach for.   Im giving this 90%","consulted_urls":["https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/IND/india/fertility-rate#:~:text=The%20current%20fertility%20rate%20for a%200.92%25%20decline%20from%202021.","https://www.google.com/search?q=India+political+climate+and+economy+for+young+people&oq=India+political+climate+and+economy+for+young+people&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCTE3MDkyajBqN6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8","https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/why-youth-unemployment-is-indias-biggest-challenge-9310122/","https://www.google.com/search?q=India+political+climate+and+economy+for+young+people&oq=India+political+climate+and+economy+for+young+people&g"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"74ad0f2e228aa9f77b49e91d7950d069856524ee5e9f9c768e313fb6c7e20831","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SZINl91huS","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:21918","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":989,"file_id":1,"item_index":988,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"21918","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.97,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"21918","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SFKcpXzkIR","forecast":0.97,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Caplan on track to win...","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"573944854b1cad5c67c74e3686691cf5ed4ca02cea63261bc118fbcfb390cb40","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFKcpXzkIR","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:21918","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":990,"file_id":1,"item_index":989,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"21918","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.91,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"21918","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SH1oF7JCqH","forecast":0.91,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Their target for territories with high fertility rate is 2.1  contraceptive acceptance has increased dramatically as has investment in family planning and the country average is already very close. Neighbor Bangladesh is already below 2  although Pakistan remains high.","consulted_urls":["https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/indias-fertility-rate-31-states/uts-hit-target-but-bihar-and-up-lag-behind/articleshow/111678611.cms?from=mdr"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0cc4234b92d854cb1dedd932bfb59abd07429322d073786dffd80d6e47dfb2cc","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SH1oF7JCqH","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:21918","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":991,"file_id":1,"item_index":990,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"21918","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.9,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"21918","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SHMLCbokK1","forecast":0.9,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"With a status quo of 2.122  and 8/9 years to go  we should look at the trend:   2023: 2.139   2022: 2.159   2021: 2.179   Even if the decline was on average 0.02 as in the Covid years  this is stil quite close. With last year´s trend (-0.017) extrapolated it would be very close. No reason to be seen  why the development should slow much down  but it might  so I don´t dare giving this more than 90%.   https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/IND/india/fertility-rate","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0c4b1fc2084c07e3ff8e7d6a8f30c4610c0332f6081fe220a7d8232f95a37d99","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SHMLCbokK1","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:21918","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":992,"file_id":1,"item_index":991,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"21918","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.94,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"21918","source":"metaculus","user_id":"Sg3FmLYbbj","forecast":0.94,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"India is developing economically and conditions for women are improving (for the most part)  and there are fewer women  TFR is already at 2.0.","consulted_urls":["https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#place=country%2FIND&statsVar=FertilityRate_Person_Female&chart=%7B%22fertilityRate-none%22%3A%7B%22pc%22%3Afalse%7D%7D"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f4023cc9d1e8d8d9347dd2e88a95f04a31f243d33d0aa4377a947c7664417871","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:Sg3FmLYbbj","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:21918","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":993,"file_id":1,"item_index":992,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"21918","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.91,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"21918","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SnOyJtNds8","forecast":0.91,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Very high probability.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f2baf7981add70d0dcebb4a459ab78c80faaa25e5126d1467bf61a05d35f53a2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SnOyJtNds8","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:21918","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":994,"file_id":1,"item_index":993,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"21918","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.95,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"21918","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S2s1t6Uzpa","forecast":0.95,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"confirm","consulted_urls":["https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=IN","https://pdp.unfpa.org/?_ga=2.189084207.545536236.1712342354-2014740225.1712342354&country=356&data_id=dataSource_8-6%3A106%2CdataSource_8-1%3A2%2B10%2B11%2CdataSource_8-2%3A933%2CdataSource_8-5%3A7576&page=Explore-Indicators"],"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"f818725edc2eaaa5295c3353f7499b839b5f95546342c7aa34a8f1322e9fc2e2","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2s1t6Uzpa","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:21918","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":995,"file_id":1,"item_index":994,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"21918","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.995,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"21918","source":"metaculus","user_id":"S2cY7Jk18R","forecast":0.995,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Update","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"d201517cfeec3aa7110eaebab8ee3a3872129790b239f27d0b043eb10a66eb70","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:S2cY7Jk18R","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:21918","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":996,"file_id":1,"item_index":995,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"21918","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.93,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"21918","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SsEu23bmu9","forecast":0.93,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"This is currently 2 (2.0  I think) according to the data sources  and trending down according to the World Bank data (as it is in most other countries  including developing countries).   The ten year time frame is very likely too soon for technological advances to significantly improve fertility in developing countries.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"3656c0fb17f436e15eca429042970897819f6cd245f77c414f41154069277c47","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SsEu23bmu9","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:21918","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":997,"file_id":1,"item_index":996,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"21918","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.96,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"21918","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecast":0.96,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Seems very likely given how close it is already  where global trends are going  and Indias rapid development more broadly.","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"a58cd9830596cab87d46f61f3c52e0d3b69e9f937bcfc229d1fe065be6dfd644","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SWvnPZ5v2Q","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:21918","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":998,"file_id":1,"item_index":997,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"21918","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.92,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"21918","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SMWxJnfq3I","forecast":0.92,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Improved economy = lower fertility rate. Has been the same everywhere  so why not in India?","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"0c6895d338fd25591438c9d138536bcf88d71f3363134c6891191bfc42db6a67","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SMWxJnfq3I","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:21918","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":999,"file_id":1,"item_index":998,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"21918","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":0.95,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"21918","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SPqHtpfr8B","forecast":0.95,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Looks like it will hapen","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"e8c38dfa9045f7ebc968b8eb21f0236e24460cf3d11591e8afaee484a0a0aaa4","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SPqHtpfr8B","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:21918","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}
{"id":1000,"file_id":1,"item_index":999,"kind":"forecast","question_set":"2024-07-21-human.json","forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","question_id":"21918","platform":"metaculus","forecaster":"Superforecaster forecasts","forecaster_kind":"human_superforecaster","forecast_value":1,"resolution_date":null,"resolved_to":null,"resolved":null,"freeze_at":null,"available_by_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59+00:00","available_by_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","payload":{"id":"21918","source":"metaculus","user_id":"SFXe6kW9Yt","forecast":1,"searches":null,"direction":null,"reasoning":"Got this the wrong way round","consulted_urls":null,"resolution_date":null},"row_sha256":"79ea9ded5738d7f3669d7159a6da0f2bc230d60e5db51438338c4ae2af5feb05","created_at":"2026-09-29T13:18:54.565352+00:00","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0 — attribution: ForecastBench / Forecasting Research Institute; share-alike applies to redistribution","lane":"forecastbench","forecaster_id":"human_superforecaster:SFXe6kW9Yt","forecaster_cohort":"Superforecaster forecasts","question_state":"open","linked_events":[],"split_group":"forecastbench:21918","clocks":{"released_at":null,"released_basis":null,"due_at":"2024-07-21T23:59:59Z","due_basis":"provider_declared_due_date","public_at":"2025-02-28T11:04:57+00:00","public_basis":"repository_first_observed_file","resolution_vintage_at":null,"note":"each clock is a different fact; a due date or release time never implies when another team's forecast became public"},"resolution":null,"trainingAdmission":{"admitted":false,"reasons":["no_matching_resolution"],"join":"forecast_due_date + question_id + resolution_date"}}