Forecasts,
with receipts.
Offdiagonal links what was issued to what was knowable then and what resolved later.
no shared-case comparison is published right now — no placeholder values are drawn
Reading the latest recorded figures…
Pairwise evidence
The off-diagonal
Pairwise differences measured only on cases both models answered.
Reading the latest recorded figures…
One frozen example
Forecast issued → decision-time evidence → later outcome
A 64-row ECB integration fixture makes clocks, missingness, revisions and provenance checkable. It is not presented as training volume.
The frozen worked receipt is temporarily unreadable. Nothing is substituted for it.
Second population
People forecasting the economy.
Professional forecasters answering the same questions round after round — kept as issued, with their probability bins, open tails and clocks intact. A separate lane from the weather models, never mixed.
forecast events
unavailable
forecasters
unavailable
distributions
unavailable
outcome vintages
unavailable
unavailable outcome vintages stored; coverage is incomplete and conservative clock bounds are labelled as bounds
The stored record is readable.
Stored measurements are published page by page, with clocks, denominators and gaps intact. Captured-but-not-yet-mirrored material remains explicitly separate.